Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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045
FXUS64 KMAF 211852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Though difficult to discern placement of the primary circulation
associated with the remnants of Odile, radar seemed to suggest a
location in central Eddy County. Though instability is limited,
precipitable water across a large part of the area remained above
1.5 inches resulting in the potential for very heavy rainfall
amounts. Though heavy rainfall in association with the circulation
has begun to wind down, heavy rain continues over the northern
Permian Basin with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
across much of the rest of southwest Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms across much of the area will decrease
this evening with loss of heating, though low level flow increases
becoming more easterly and upslope in the vicinity the mountain
areas. Though models have not been handling the remnants of Odile
well, should see circulation lift northwest as 700 mb high builds
into the area. Expecting to see increase in precipitation over
southeast New Mexico later in the evening as upslope low level
flow increases. May see scattered showers and thunderstorms later
tonight into Monday morning over the Permian Basin as a weak cold
front pushes into the area with additional thunderstorms possible
near the front in the afternoon, generally across the Permian
Basin. Expecting the heaviest rain, mostly in New Mexico, to wind
down by late morning.

Though the primary focus for heavy rain will be southeast New
Mexico, will keep areal coverage for the flash flood watch unchanged
as abundant moisture and wet soils combined with high rainfall
rates across most of the watch area could result in flash
flooding. Will extend flash flood watch through Monday morning to
match expected decrease in rain in southeast New Mexico.

Looking for potential scattered thunderstorms mostly eastern
Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday near weak upper trough and low
level moist axis. Scattered thunderstorms are possible beginning
in the mountains Thursday and spreading eastward by the weekend in
advance of upper trough approaching the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will remain low through Tuesday as a moist
airmass remains over the area. Rain chances will stay high through
tonight. Afternoon relative humidities will remain above 30
percent through most of next week, while recovery will be
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  78  63  80  /  50  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  81  64  82  /  30  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                64  77  64  81  /  80  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  86  68  85  /  30  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  84  64  85  /  50  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  71  59  77  /  70  70  30  10
HOBBS NM                   64  76  62  80  /  70  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   62  75  56  77  /  60  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  81  63  82  /  40  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  66  81  64  82  /  40  30  30  20
WINK TX                    69  85  65  85  /  50  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/05

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