Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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957
FXUS64 KMAF 271127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs this
morning and the potential for thunderstorms at different periods
throughout the TAF period. Currently have some light to moderate
showers across the southern Permian Basin early this morning with
some areas of MVFR cigs hanging around. It is possible that this
activity will intensify slightly and shift west throughout the day
but confidence is fairly low in this scenario at this time so will
not include mention of TSRA at any terminals and make adjustment
later if needed. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are expected to lift by mid
morning and all terminals will return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this
morning and is centered over the 4 corners region.  Upper low over
the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area
yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today.  An east coast
trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge
will remain entrenched over the west.

Rain and clouds kept temperatures well down yesterday with highs
mainly in the 80s.  Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly
increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week.  Can
still see readings at or above 100 along the Rio Grande each day.

Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z.  As of
early morning still have some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Permian Basin slowly drifting southward across the
Pecos River.  MAF reported 0.35 inch of rain yesterday which puts it
at nearly an inch above normal YTD.  Have the chance for additional
rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.  With PW in the
1.4 to 1.6 range locally heavy rain will be the main concern... will
continue to highlight in the HWO.  By Tuesday most of the precip
will have shifted west with the mountains again favored.  After that
things begin to dry out with only some rain around the edges of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       87  67  93  68 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  62  84  65 /  50  30  20  10
Hobbs                          86  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          80  60  84  60 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           91  68  95  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72

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