Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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077
FXUS64 KMAF 281737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 28/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cumulus field expanding to encompass areas around terminals at
this time. Expect some isolated TS, with MVFR visibility in rain,
over much of southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. The
likelihood of having any TS at any one terminal this afternoon is
too low to include a TEMPO, so we`ll monitor trends and amend if
TS is forecast to affect a terminal. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions with easterly to southeasterly winds 11 knots or less,
with perhaps gusty conditions at KPEQ and KFST this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds through the period. Isolated TS
in the area 18-03Z will not be enough to place in the present wx
of TAFs at this time.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Persistence prevails today as West TX and SE NM remain under NE flow
aloft with an upper ridge centered to the NW. Chance for
thunderstorms are slightly lower today but still a chance for some
diurnal storms with moist, easterly upslope flow at the surface and
decent mid level moisture in place. May also have a lingering
outflow boundary or two across the Permian Basin area (thanks to
overnight convection in the southern TX Panhandle) that may serve as
a focus for isolated storms. Best chances look to be across the
Davis Mountains and east through the lower Trans Pecos however
pinpointing any given thunderstorm location is fairly difficult at
this time. The main threats with any storm continue to be brief
gusty winds and frequent lightning. High temperatures will be fairly
similar to yesterday. MOS guidance has been too cool the last few
days so will stay on the warmer side with forecasted highs in the
mid to upper 90s.

The upper ridge begins to expand east into the Southern Plains
Friday through the weekend, ending rain chances for most locations.
Temperatures will warm through the weekend with highs near or above
the 100 degree mark come Monday. Best chance for thunderstorms look
to remain confined to the mountain regions with monsoonal moisture,
upslope flow and daytime heating all in play. Models show a weak
disturbance moving south through the TX Panhandle late Friday night
and could see some storms wander down into northern portions of Lea
County. Beyond this weekend, rain chances continue across western
zones and near the higher terrain however with the possibility of
very hot temperatures returning early next week, we could see late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms pop across the region as a
result. For now, will keep the eastern 2/3 of the CWA dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  73  97  73 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       97  70  97  71 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         96  75  97  76 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  94  72  95  73 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 87  67  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          95  68  94  69 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          88  63  89  65 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         95  74  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           98  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12/70

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