Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181810

110 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is TSRA affecting
all terminals at some point this afternoon and/or tonight. Currently
have SE winds becoming more established and expect gusts to increase
over the next couple of hours. Difficult aviation forecast today,
particularly with trying to pinpoint timing and location of TSRA
development. Think convection will be more scattered in nature
through late evening then become more numerous overnight. As a
result, will continue TEMPO TSRA through this evening then
prevailing TSRA at most sites through early Tuesday morning. Could
see some brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis and gusts up to 40kt with
any thunderstorm. Otherwise, will continue to monitor trends and
make amendments if/when needed. Have MVFR cigs at MAF and HOB
Tuesday morning but conditions should improve by late morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in
the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge
northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture
will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this
afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak
upper trough will initiate convection. CAPE and shear will be more
than enough to support severe convection and SPC has almost the
entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail the main threat...but strong winds, and even
isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners
developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin. Instability
will not be as high as today but again it should be enough to
support severe thunderstorms and once again the Permian Basin is
outlooked by SPC with a slight risk.

Things change a bit Wednesday with the approach of a weak cold
front. How far south the front pushes during the day on Wednesday
will affect thunderstorm earlier arrival will
bring cooler air in quicker and limit instability while a later
arrival will allow for better daytime heating and more
instability. The NAM is fastest with the timing of the front...and
is normally preferred in these situations due to its higher low
level resolution with the other models having a slower passage
after sunset. Despite this will go with model consensus and not
bring the front through Midland before peak heating at this time
but will have it entering the northeastern Basin with a good
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. The front will
definitely be through by Thursday and cloudy skies and overrunning
precipitation will combine with the weak cold air advection to
drop temperatures well below normal.

Friday skies begin to clear out and afternoon heating will again
cause instability and keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend.







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