Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 110531

1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


Some showers possible later tonight into Saturday morning though
lightning will be isolated. Some MVFR CIGs are possible near
sunrise with MAF the most likely TAF site to be affected. The last
half of the TAF period appears very favorable for aviation



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2015/

SE-E surface winds have increased across the Trans Pecos/PB this PM
as surface high moves e and surface pressure falls. Upslope flow per
mesoscale models (TTU WRF, NAM12, HRRR) looks well organized, enuf
so that dwpnts will increase to near 50 on on east slopes of Davis
Mtns and M50s thru Glass Mtns. Instability looks to be modulated by
mid level LRs of 7.5 C/KM and 0-1km CAPES increase by 00Z to near
1500 J/KG in said area. Looks to be a good set-up for tstms to
initiate in the mtns where SB CINH not much of an issue and then
move e-ne. Kinematics are also favorable for severe wx (large hail)
with 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50kts. In this set-up, the surface thermal
ridge and axis of highest dwpnts are near co-located. HRRR develops
QPF at 22Z NW of FST and depicts what may well be a right-moving
supercell across Pecos Co later this PM. Overnight there is an
indication that the arrival energy assocd shrtwv trof in the sw flow
aloft and 40kt LLJ may renew the development of convection,
especially s of I-20. Convective potential will wane Sat, but still
exists. Isold-Sct tstms INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and across the ern PB,
respectively. Sunday more robust PoPs are warranted with backed mid
level flow ahead of an upper low sw of El Paso City, helping to hold
low level mstr in place. 5h jet of 50-60kts will help provide lift.
0-6km bulk shear increases late, but LR/s are not very good, so for
now severe potential looks to be minimized. There`s enuf of a backed
flow/mstr/potential for rain cooled air to keeps temps INVOF of
normal ranges thru Sunday. Said low will lift newd to w-nw of MAF
and this will increase the PoPs Monday n of the area, moreso in the
LBB area. However cool mid levels near the center of low will be
enough to keep sct PoPs, especially along n of I-20. An assocd cold
front will pass thru the area either Mon PM or Mon night, so cooler
and drier Tue. Another front will be possible Wed night/Thursday
morning, so cool/dry for Thur PM. We`ll watch for the potential for
low level mstr return Friday which will augment PoPs.






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