Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 260254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015


Area radars show a cluster of cells moving SW thru the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains. This should diminish short of Midland. We`ve done
an update to expand areal coverage in the grids to account for
this.  Updates have been sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.


Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/


Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.



BIG SPRING TX                  73  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  67  95  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      73 101  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       68  93  67  93  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       58  89  59  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  98  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  96  72  97  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                        72  99  72 100  /  10  10  10   0





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