Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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733
FXUS64 KMAF 311001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Satellite imagery shows post-frontal stratus has develped, mainly
south of I-20, but drier air advecting in from the north is
raising cigs, and all termianls should be VFR by issuance time.
Sfc flow will veer to E over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Today`s forecast will be more of a treat than trick as pleasantly
cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies arrive behind a cold front.
Temperatures have cooled into the 40s and 50s north of the front
which has made it into northern Mexico this morning. Highs will stay
mostly in the 60s across the area this afternoon. Cloudy skies
across the higher terrain will slowly clear through the day. Winds
will turn back to the southeast tonight as sfc ridging over the
Southern Plains quickly moves east. This along with increasing high
clouds will help keep temperatures from falling too much Saturday
morning. Even so, still expecting some of the coldest readings of
the year across the area as lows fall into the 30s and 40s.

Attention then turns to the west as a strong upper trough comes
ashore along the West Coast this weekend. Height falls really begin
to affect the area by Sunday when the trough digs into the Desert
SW. Southwest flow aloft will lead to increasing upper level
moisture and possibly some light showers across western areas. A
cold front enters the region Monday night into Tuesday as the trough
gets closer. This will help to focus showers and thunderstorms more,
especially across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Models begin to
diverge by midweek, although they are agreeing with each other more
than yesterday. The GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all develop a cut-off low,
but differ in its location. The GFS develops the low over the Big
Bend region while the CMC and ECMWF are farther west over northern
Mexico. These systems are typically very slow moving and models
usually don`t handle them well several days out. No matter which
model pans out, the potential for heavy rain will exist somewhere
across our area. For this forecast, will side more with the majority
and keep highest PoPs along the front Monday night into Tuesday.
Will also extend PoPs into much of next week. Temperatures will also
be chilly behind the front next week with highs well below normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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