Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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765
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper level trough across the Rockies will move east to the
plain states by Thursday. A weak surface trough from the central
Permian Basin to the lower Trans Pecos will remain nearly stationary
this evening before pushing east later tonight as the upper trough
shifts eastward. Upper level forcing and low level convergence
is forecast to be negligible east of the surface trough this
evening, so am not expecting more than isolated thunderstorms at
best, across the eastern Permian Basin this evening. Cold front
associated with the aforementioned upper trough will move through
the forecast area Thursday dropping high temperatures back several
degrees to more normal values. Will continue dry forecast Thursday
due to the better upper level forcing and low level convergence
remaining north and east of the region.

Beyond Thursday a dry northwesterly flow aloft regime is forecast
to be in place this weekend through early next week before shifting
to dry southwesterly flow aloft by next Tuesday. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal Friday and Saturday before turning much
above normal Sunday through next Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  81  49  79  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  82  52  80  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  81  47  80  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  96  59  89  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  88  55  85  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  77  54  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  80  46  77  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   49  84  41  81  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  84  50  81  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  59  84  51  81  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    56  87  49  87  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/12

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659
FXUS64 KMAF 011731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through the forecast but could see low clouds try to creep
into MAF tomorrow morning.  May be a few afternoon storms east of
MAF and FST but did not include in TAFs.  Will go ahead and start
carrying fropa at CNM... HOB... and MAF before midday Thursday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline will push east through much of the region today and looks
to become co-located with a mid-level theta-e gradient over far
eastern zones by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
will dive SE though the Rockies today and may provide enough
upper forcing to aid in thunderstorm development near the dryline.
With all this in mind, think it is worth introducing slight chance
across far eastern zones this afternoon and evening. Models
suggest MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg possible over these areas
with values increasing eastward. A few storms could become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Strong winds, brief heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning could also accompany any strong
storms.

Another hot day expected today with highs forecasted to be well
above normal values for this time of year. Fortunately, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves through the Plains
Thursday, it will send a dry cold front south through the FA.
Winds will shift to the north behind the front and may become a
bit breezy for a few hours during the day. Temperatures could be
about 5-10 degrees cooler at most locations Thursday compared to
today. A surface ridge will settle into the area Thursday night
with another push of cooler expected for Friday. High temperatures
on Friday will be a few degrees below normal with readings
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Beyond Friday, upper ridging amplified across the western ConUS will
result in NW flow aloft across the CWA. Model guidance shows a weak
disturbance moving over the region during the Sun/Mon time frame but
best available moisture looks to stay to the east and we should
remain dry. Otherwise, southerly flow at the surface will return
Saturday with a gradual warming trend expected through the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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405
FXUS64 KMAF 011110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds through the period occasionally
gusting in the afternoon. Isolated TS will remain east of all TAF
sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline will push east through much of the region today and looks
to become co-located with a mid-level theta-e gradient over far
eastern zones by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
will dive SE though the Rockies today and may provide enough
upper forcing to aid in thunderstorm development near the dryline.
With all this in mind, think it is worth introducing slight chance
across far eastern zones this afternoon and evening. Models
suggest MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg possible over these areas
with values increasing eastward. A few storms could become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Strong winds, brief heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning could also accompany any strong
storms.

Another hot day expected today with highs forecasted to be well
above normal values for this time of year. Fortunately, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves through the Plains
Thursday, it will send a dry cold front south through the FA.
Winds will shift to the north behind the front and may become a
bit breezy for a few hours during the day. Temperatures could be
about 5-10 degrees cooler at most locations Thursday compared to
today. A surface ridge will settle into the area Thursday night
with another push of cooler expected for Friday. High temperatures
on Friday will be a few degrees below normal with readings
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Beyond Friday, upper ridging amplified across the western ConUS will
result in NW flow aloft across the CWA. Model guidance shows a weak
disturbance moving over the region during the Sun/Mon time frame but
best available moisture looks to stay to the east and we should
remain dry. Otherwise, southerly flow at the surface will return
Saturday with a gradual warming trend expected through the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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158
FXUS64 KMAF 010909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A dryline will push east through much of the region today and looks
to become co-located with a mid-level theta-e gradient over far
eastern zones by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
will dive SE though the Rockies today and may provide enough
upper forcing to aid in thunderstorm development near the dryline.
With all this in mind, think it is worth introducing slight chance
across far eastern zones this afternoon and evening. Models
suggest MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg possible over these areas
with values increasing eastward. A few storms could become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Strong winds, brief heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning could also accompany any strong
storms.

Another hot day expected today with highs forecasted to be well
above normal values for this time of year. Fortunately, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves through the Plains
Thursday, it will send a dry cold front south through the FA.
Winds will shift to the north behind the front and may become a
bit breezy for a few hours during the day. Temperatures could be
about 5-10 degrees cooler at most locations Thursday compared to
today. A surface ridge will settle into the area Thursday night
with another push of cooler expected for Friday. High temperatures
on Friday will be a few degrees below normal with readings
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Beyond Friday, upper ridging amplified across the western ConUS will
result in NW flow aloft across the CWA. Model guidance shows a weak
disturbance moving over the region during the Sun/Mon time frame but
best available moisture looks to stay to the east and we should
remain dry. Otherwise, southerly flow at the surface will return
Saturday with a gradual warming trend expected through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  60  82  51  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              95  67  85  56  /  20  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  56  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  98  72  95  63  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  65  89  55  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  56  73  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   88  55  80  49  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  52  80  43  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    93  63  87  53  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  93  63  86  54  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    94  61  88  52  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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731
FXUS64 KMAF 010519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light to moderate winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Large upper level trough across the western states will move east
to the plain states by Thursday. Surface trough is forecast to
stretch from the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans
Pecos late today and Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to mention
isolated thunderstorms across the lower Trans Pecos and northeast
Permian Basin this evening ahead of the surface trough due to
low level convergence and or topography. A similar scenario
could take place Wednesday afternoon and early evening but
am not getting, as of yet, a strong enough signal from the
various guidance so will leave dry for now and continue to monitor
tonight. Cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will move through the forecast area Thursday dropping
high temperatures back several degrees to more normal values.
Will continue dry forecast Thursday due to the better upper
forcing and convergence remaining north and east of the region.

Beyond Thursday a dry northwesterly aloft regime is forecast
to be in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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731
FXUS64 KMAF 010519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light to moderate winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Large upper level trough across the western states will move east
to the plain states by Thursday. Surface trough is forecast to
stretch from the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans
Pecos late today and Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to mention
isolated thunderstorms across the lower Trans Pecos and northeast
Permian Basin this evening ahead of the surface trough due to
low level convergence and or topography. A similar scenario
could take place Wednesday afternoon and early evening but
am not getting, as of yet, a strong enough signal from the
various guidance so will leave dry for now and continue to monitor
tonight. Cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will move through the forecast area Thursday dropping
high temperatures back several degrees to more normal values.
Will continue dry forecast Thursday due to the better upper
forcing and convergence remaining north and east of the region.

Beyond Thursday a dry northwesterly aloft regime is forecast
to be in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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758
FXUS64 KMAF 302316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  There are some
storms to the east of FST but they should not affect the terminal.
Winds will primarily be out of the southwest with gusts diminishing
after sunset then becoming gusty again after 18z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Large upper level trough across the western states will move east
to the plain states by Thursday. Surface trough is forecast to
stretch from the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans
Pecos late today and Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to mention
isolated thunderstorms across the lower Trans Pecos and northeast
Permian Basin this evening ahead of the surface trough due to
low level convergence and or topography. A similar scenario
could take place Wednesday afternoon and early evening but
am not getting, as of yet, a strong enough signal from the
various guidance so will leave dry for now and continue to monitor
tonight. Cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will move through the forecast area Thursday dropping
high temperatures back several degrees to more normal values.
Will continue dry forecast Thursday due to the better upper
forcing and convergence remaining north and east of the region.

Beyond Thursday a dry northwesterly aloft regime is forecast
to be in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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264
FXUS64 KMAF 301922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper level trough across the western states will move east
to the plain states by Thursday. Surface trough is forecast to
stretch from the central Permian Basin south to the lower Trans
Pecos late today and Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to mention
isolated thunderstorms across the lower Trans Pecos and northeast
Permian Basin this evening ahead of the surface trough due to
low level convergence and or topography. A similar scenario
could take place Wednesday afternoon and early evening but
am not getting, as of yet, a strong enough signal from the
various guidance so will leave dry for now and continue to monitor
tonight. Cold front associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will move through the forecast area Thursday dropping
high temperatures back several degrees to more normal values.
Will continue dry forecast Thursday due to the better upper
forcing and convergence remaining north and east of the region.

Beyond Thursday a dry northwesterly aloft regime is forecast
to be in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  91  62  83  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  93  67  85  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                58  92  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  96  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  95  65  88  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  82  57  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   58  88  58  80  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  87  57  80  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  93  65  86  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  93  65  84  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    65  95  63  88  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/12

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078
FXUS64 KMAF 301735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue.  Have had a few showers and storms
develop this afternoon NE of MAF along a surface trough that extends
from near SNK southward to E of FST.  Have not included mention of
TSRA in TAFs.  Wind will be southerly east of the trough and westerly
west of it.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north central plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East Pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is
expected.

A second upper trough drops into the southern Rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the CWA during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at MAF with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any PoPs
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping us in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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241
FXUS64 KMAF 301116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Have yet to see
MVFR vis materialize at CNM this morning but think there is still a
chance and will continue mention for the next couple of hours.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expect to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north central plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East Pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is
expected.

A second upper trough drops into the southern Rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the CWA during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at MAF with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any PoPs
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping us in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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029
FXUS64 KMAF 300901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north central plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East Pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is
expected.

A second upper trough drops into the southern Rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the CWA during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at MAF with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any PoPs
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping us in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 89  64  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  93  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                89  61  91  59  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  95  68  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  67  95  65  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  82  57  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   86  60  88  58  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   85  58  87  57  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  66  93  65  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  90  66  93  65  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  65  95  63  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 300521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Could see MVFR vis
develop once again at CNM early this morning, otherwise VFR
conditions are expect to prevail.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Intermountain West this morning will
swing across the Rockies early Tuesday before lifting northeast.
A secondary upper trough will swing across Eastern NM and W TX on
Thursday.  This will bring a brief shot of cooler wx to the region.
After this high pressure begins to build in from the west.

Had much less fog this morning compared to yesterday.  Afternoon cu
has developed over most of the area and should dissipate this
evening.  Some mid clouds should move across the area tonight along
with increased vorticity associated with the upper trough.  This
could end up keeping lows a degree or two higher.  Expect above
normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday.  A cold front will move into the
region Thursday.  Currently it looks like it will begin with a wind
shift to the west more like a Pacific front. This front will be
attached to a deep surface low moving across the Southern
Plains... with the wind coming around to the north as the polar
front moves in behind it.  The cool down only looks to be brief.
There may be some rain off to the east but for our CWA fropa looks
to be dry.

With the approach of the upper trough and upslope flow at the
surface there could be some storms this afternoon or tonight over
the Davis Mtns... SE NM or Culberson county.  Models do give low
pops and develop some qpf so will go ahead and leave the low pops
in tonight.  Will mention strong storms possible tonight mainly for
SE NM.  After that rain chances looking slim... could be few
storms develop late Tuesday along a surface trough.  Other than that
the forecast is dry the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 292244
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning/early afternoon,
w/bases 4.5-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Intermountain West this morning will
swing across the Rockies early Tuesday before lifting northeast.
A secondary upper trough will swing across Eastern NM and W TX on
Thursday.  This will bring a brief shot of cooler wx to the region.
After this high pressure begins to build in from the west.

Had much less fog this morning compared to yesterday.  Afternoon cu
has developed over most of the area and should dissipate this
evening.  Some mid clouds should move across the area tonight along
with increased vorticity associated with the upper trough.  This
could end up keeping lows a degree or two higher.  Expect above
normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday.  A cold front will move into the
region Thursday.  Currently it looks like it will begin with a wind
shift to the west more like a Pacific front. This front will be
attached to a deep surface low moving across the Southern
Plains... with the wind coming around to the north as the polar
front moves in behind it.  The cool down only looks to be brief.
There may be some rain off to the east but for our CWA fropa looks
to be dry.

With the approach of the upper trough and upslope flow at the
surface there could be some storms this afternoon or tonight over
the Davis Mtns... SE NM or Culberson county.  Models do give low
pops and develop some qpf so will go ahead and leave the low pops
in tonight.  Will mention strong storms possible tonight mainly for
SE NM.  After that rain chances looking slim... could be few
storms develop late Tuesday along a surface trough.  Other than that
the forecast is dry the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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601
FXUS64 KMAF 291843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Intermountain West this morning will
swing across the Rockies early Tuesday before lifting northeast.
A secondary upper trough will swing across Eastern NM and W TX on
Thursday.  This will bring a brief shot of cooler wx to the region.
After this high pressure begins to build in from the west.

Had much less fog this morning compared to yesterday.  Afternoon cu
has developed over most of the area and should dissipate this
evening.  Some mid clouds should move across the area tonight along
with increased vorticity associated with the upper trough.  This
could end up keeping lows a degree or two higher.  Expect above
normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday.  A cold front will move into the
region Thursday.  Currently it looks like it will begin with a wind
shift to the west more like a Pacific front. This front will be
attached to a deep surface low moving across the Southern
Plains... with the wind coming around to the north as the polar
front moves in behind it.  The cool down only looks to be brief.
There may be some rain off to the east but for our CWA fropa looks
to be dry.

With the approach of the upper trough and upslope flow at the
surface there could be some storms this afternoon or tonight over
the Davis Mtns... SE NM or Culberson county.  Models do give low
pops and develop some qpf so will go ahead and leave the low pops
in tonight.  Will mention strong storms possible tonight mainly for
SE NM.  After that rain chances looking slim... could be few
storms develop late Tuesday along a surface trough.  Other than that
the forecast is dry the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  87  64  87  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  88  67  91  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  89  59  87  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  67  94  70  94  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  91  65  92  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  79  58  78  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   59  84  59  84  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   52  84  53  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  62  87  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  90  63  91  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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677
FXUS64 KMAF 291652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A brief period
of TEMPO MVFR visibilities in fog is expected at KHOB and KCNM
toward 12z Tuesday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures warming up to late summer levels this week before a
cold front arrives Thursday.

A shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough to our west will
help to kick it into the Plains this afternoon. This combined
with a sfc trough stretching down the Front Range will create a
chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening over southeast
NM and the Guadalupe Mnts. Most of the upper dynamics will remain
to our north...however a few storms could be strong considering
the intense shear associated with the wave. Dry, westerly mid
level flow will settle over the region midweek helping to warm
temps well above normal. Another shortwave will dig south across
the Rockies late this week, dragging a cold front trough the area
Thursday. Low level moisture will remain to our east so expect a
dry frontal passage. Temperatures will cool only slightly behind
the front Friday before warming back up over the weekend as an
upper ridge builds to our west. The area should continue to dry
out from last weeks flooding as lots of sun, lower dewpoints, and
moderate winds are expected all week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  63  87  64  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  67  89  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                82  62  88  60  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  68  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  65  92  66  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  61  80  59  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   80  59  84  59  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   81  55  85  54  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  65  90  67  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  66  88  67  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    86  65  90  64  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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826
FXUS64 KMAF 290909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures warming up to late summer levels this week before a
cold front arrives Thursday.

A shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough to our west will
help to kick it into the Plains this afternoon. This combined
with a sfc trough stretching down the Front Range will create a
chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening over southeast
NM and the Guadalupe Mnts. Most of the upper dynamics will remain
to our north...however a few storms could be strong considering
the intense shear associated with the wave. Dry, westerly mid
level flow will settle over the region midweek helping to warm
temps well above normal. Another shortwave will dig south across
the Rockies late this week, dragging a cold front trough the area
Thursday. Low level moisture will remain to our east so expect a
dry frontal passage. Temperatures will cool only slightly behind
the front Friday before warming back up over the weekend as an
upper ridge builds to our west. The area should continue to dry
out from last weeks flooding as lots of sun, lower dewpoints, and
moderate winds are expected all week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  63  87  64  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  67  89  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                82  62  88  60  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  68  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  65  92  66  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  61  80  59  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   80  59  84  59  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   81  55  85  54  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  65  90  67  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  66  88  67  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    86  65  90  64  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 290545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 29/06Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light southeast winds will prevail at all area
terminals through 30/06Z. There is a low chance, maybe 1 in 8, of
ground fog developing by daybreak, particularly in low spots with
good cold air drainage and/or areas that picked up substantial rain
last week. At this time, KHOB looks to have the greatest risk, and
we will monitor changes as needed.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 290545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 29/06Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light southeast winds will prevail at all area
terminals through 30/06Z. There is a low chance, maybe 1 in 8, of
ground fog developing by daybreak, particularly in low spots with
good cold air drainage and/or areas that picked up substantial rain
last week. At this time, KHOB looks to have the greatest risk, and
we will monitor changes as needed.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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630
FXUS64 KMAF 282201
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop a cu field invof eastern terminals by late morning,
w/bases 4-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon will swing
into CO and NM late tomorrow before lifting into the Northern Plains
on Tuesday.  A secondary lobe of the low will swing around the
Rockies Wed/Thur sending cooler wx our way.  After that high
pressure returns from the west.

Did have some fog across the Permian Basin this morning and may see
some again tomorrow morning as the lower levels remain moist and
should cool to near the dewpt.  The wind tonight will be generally
light and easterly keeping the dewpts up.  Have cooled overnight
lows a degree or two based on this mornings cool readings.  This
morning MAF hit lows in the 50s for the second time this month with
Marfa the coolest location to report at 48.  Temperatures will be on
the increase the next few days and may reach the 90s by
Wednesday...  but a cold front is expected to blow into the area
Thursday.  Temps below normal for the last half of the week.

As of early afternoon have cu developing over the Davis Mtns so
could see a few showers/storms kick up.  Model qpf does develop some
light precip over the mtns down into the Marfa Plateau and northern
Big Bend so will leave the isolated pops in for this evening.  Could
see afternoon storms over the mountains again Monday but storms may
also drift in from the west across Eddy and Culberson counties as
the upper trough gets closer.  A few of these storms could be strong
to severe Monday but better chance for severe wx will be farther
north/closer to upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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630
FXUS64 KMAF 282201
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop a cu field invof eastern terminals by late morning,
w/bases 4-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon will swing
into CO and NM late tomorrow before lifting into the Northern Plains
on Tuesday.  A secondary lobe of the low will swing around the
Rockies Wed/Thur sending cooler wx our way.  After that high
pressure returns from the west.

Did have some fog across the Permian Basin this morning and may see
some again tomorrow morning as the lower levels remain moist and
should cool to near the dewpt.  The wind tonight will be generally
light and easterly keeping the dewpts up.  Have cooled overnight
lows a degree or two based on this mornings cool readings.  This
morning MAF hit lows in the 50s for the second time this month with
Marfa the coolest location to report at 48.  Temperatures will be on
the increase the next few days and may reach the 90s by
Wednesday...  but a cold front is expected to blow into the area
Thursday.  Temps below normal for the last half of the week.

As of early afternoon have cu developing over the Davis Mtns so
could see a few showers/storms kick up.  Model qpf does develop some
light precip over the mtns down into the Marfa Plateau and northern
Big Bend so will leave the isolated pops in for this evening.  Could
see afternoon storms over the mountains again Monday but storms may
also drift in from the west across Eddy and Culberson counties as
the upper trough gets closer.  A few of these storms could be strong
to severe Monday but better chance for severe wx will be farther
north/closer to upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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630
FXUS64 KMAF 282201
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop a cu field invof eastern terminals by late morning,
w/bases 4-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon will swing
into CO and NM late tomorrow before lifting into the Northern Plains
on Tuesday.  A secondary lobe of the low will swing around the
Rockies Wed/Thur sending cooler wx our way.  After that high
pressure returns from the west.

Did have some fog across the Permian Basin this morning and may see
some again tomorrow morning as the lower levels remain moist and
should cool to near the dewpt.  The wind tonight will be generally
light and easterly keeping the dewpts up.  Have cooled overnight
lows a degree or two based on this mornings cool readings.  This
morning MAF hit lows in the 50s for the second time this month with
Marfa the coolest location to report at 48.  Temperatures will be on
the increase the next few days and may reach the 90s by
Wednesday...  but a cold front is expected to blow into the area
Thursday.  Temps below normal for the last half of the week.

As of early afternoon have cu developing over the Davis Mtns so
could see a few showers/storms kick up.  Model qpf does develop some
light precip over the mtns down into the Marfa Plateau and northern
Big Bend so will leave the isolated pops in for this evening.  Could
see afternoon storms over the mountains again Monday but storms may
also drift in from the west across Eddy and Culberson counties as
the upper trough gets closer.  A few of these storms could be strong
to severe Monday but better chance for severe wx will be farther
north/closer to upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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829
FXUS64 KMAF 281842
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low over the Great Basin this afternoon will swing
into CO and NM late tomorrow before lifting into the Northern Plains
on Tuesday.  A secondary lobe of the low will swing around the
Rockies Wed/Thur sending cooler wx our way.  After that high
pressure returns from the west.

Did have some fog across the Permian Basin this morning and may see
some again tomorrow morning as the lower levels remain moist and
should cool to near the dewpt.  The wind tonight will be generally
light and easterly keeping the dewpts up.  Have cooled overnight
lows a degree or two based on this mornings cool readings.  This
morning MAF hit lows in the 50s for the second time this month with
Marfa the coolest location to report at 48.  Temperatures will be on
the increase the next few days and may reach the 90s by
Wednesday...  but a cold front is expected to blow into the area
Thursday.  Temps below normal for the last half of the week.

As of early afternoon have cu developing over the Davis Mtns so
could see a few showers/storms kick up.  Model qpf does develop some
light precip over the mtns down into the Marfa Plateau and northern
Big Bend so will leave the isolated pops in for this evening.  Could
see afternoon storms over the mountains again Monday but storms may
also drift in from the west across Eddy and Culberson counties as
the upper trough gets closer.  A few of these storms could be strong
to severe Monday but better chance for severe wx will be farther
north/closer to upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  82  62  86  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              61  84  64  88  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  84  61  88  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  66  89  67  92  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  65  87  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  77  59  79  /  10  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   59  81  58  84  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   49  81  54  84  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  63  88  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  82  64  87  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    62  86  64  89  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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476
FXUS64 KMAF 281707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should become VFR by early afternoon at all the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. VFR conditions are
expected through much of the night as well. Moist ground and
light winds could generate some MVFR visibilities in fog for
a couple of hours near sunrise Monday, so will include a tempo
group at several terminals for this probability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 28/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Scattered areas of low stratus (perhaps at times mixed with fog)
have grown quite a bit across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico. Just not a lot of it has affected area terminals at this
time. KHOB and KCNM has been impacted to a degree, and KFST and KMAF
will be shortly. KPEQ and KINK may be in an "anti-sucker hole" and
as such may stay VFR this morning. We`ll continue to keep an eye
out the window and on the satellite imagery. After about 15Z or
so, conditions will become VFR areawide and remain that way
through 29/10Z or so, where we may see a repeat of this morning`s
low stratus and fog. Confidence and timing aren`t high enough
right now to mention in the forecast, so stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  79  62  83  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  82  64  85  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  81  60  85  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  63  86  66  89  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  64  88  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  76  59  80  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   59  78  60  80  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  81  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  81  62  85  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  81  64  85  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  86  64  89  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 281134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 28/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered areas of low stratus (perhaps at times mixed with fog)
have grown quite a bit across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico. Just not a lot of it has affected area terminals at this
time. KHOB and KCNM has been impacted to a degree, and KFST and KMAF
will be shortly. KPEQ and KINK may be in an "anti-sucker hole" and
as such may stay VFR this morning. We`ll continue to keep an eye
out the window and on the satellite imagery. After about 15Z or
so, conditions will become VFR areawide and remain that way
through 29/10Z or so, where we may see a repeat of this morning`s
low stratus and fog. Confidence and timing aren`t high enough
right now to mention in the forecast, so stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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427
FXUS64 KMAF 280851
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low that sat over the area last week has weakened and
moved east as a much larger trough moves into the Great Basin. Rain
chances really drop off today areawide except for some terrain
induced convection in the Davis Mountains. The upper low begins to
shear out and lift into the Plains Monday. This will bring a chance
of storms to southeast New Mexico and possibly the northern Permian
Basin Monday afternoon and evening. Considering the impressive shear
associated with this system, a few severe storms will be possible.
Another shortwave will dig on the backside of the departing low and
drag a cold front through the area Thursday. The front will likely
pass through dry as most of the energy associated with the trough
slides to our north. By next weekend, a large ridge builds across
the West and extends into our region keeping things dry.

Temperatures will warm each day through midweek as sfc winds turn
more southwesterly during the afternoons. We are likely not done
with the 90s just yet as summer is still trying to hang on.
Temperatures will cool to near normal Friday behind the cold front,
but should warm back up next weekend as the upper ridge develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  61  82  63  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  65  85  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  61  82  61  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  84  67  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  63  87  66  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  58  78  60  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   77  59  80  59  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  54  80  55  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  62  85  65  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  80  63  83  66  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                    85  64  87  65  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/29

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494
FXUS64 KMAF 280549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 28/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light southeasterly flow is curling around the southwestern
periphery of a high pressure ridge across the Missouri River valley.
Fog product satellite imagery (11-3.9 micron) is showing patchy
areas of low ceilings developing across the lower trans-Pecos.
This morning there exists a bit larger surface T-Td spread; however,
models and BUFKIT soundings all indicate that these spreads will
collapse to the Tw point sometime in the 08Z-10Z range. Most areas
will see MVFR to IFR conditions in the 10Z-14Z range as low
stratus/fog settles in. Based on climatology and the belief that
KHOB sits in a hole, we`ve taken them down to IFR with tempo LIFR
visibilities for a few hours after daybreak. Low stratus should
burn off nicely by 15-16Z at the latest, with VFR conditions
prevailing. There is a very low chance (1:8) of buildups over the
Davis and Guadalupe ranges this afternoon, but all indications
suggest a minimal impact to GA.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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603
FXUS64 KMAF 280301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1001 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show earlier -SHRA has diminished across the region,
w/latest RUC showing an uneventful night ahead. Will do a quick
update to removed isolated convection first period, and adjust
other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed an eastward moving low
pressure center over Terrell County.  Associated widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still lingering over the Permian
Basin.  Expectations are that this activity will continue through
sunset before finally dissipating.

An upper level storm system located over central California will
make its way into the central Rockies by Monday.  The approach of
this system with result in associated lee trough development from
eastern Co. into Far West Texas by Monday afternoon.  This surface
trough will serve as the focus of isolated thunderstorm development
over the western third of the County Warning Area on Monday and over
portions of the Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday.

Model CAPE values near 1000 J/kg along with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 30 are forecast Tuesday afternoon over the northern
portions of the Permian Basin and into the Rolling Plains. In
edition, the right entrance region of the 250 MB jet is over that
area as well. I thought that was enough to warrant a slight
increase in Tuesday afternoon thunderstorm chances over that area.
It is not inconceivable that we could see an isolated severe thunderstorm
in this general area on Tuesday.

As the upper storm system slides east, so goes the surface trough
and our rain chances.  A cold front moving through the area Thursday
should be a dry one, with drier and cooler air moving into the area
behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  79  62  83  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  82  64  85  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  81  60  85  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  63  86  66  89  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  64  88  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  76  59  80  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   59  78  60  80  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  81  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  81  62  85  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  81  64  85  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  86  64  89  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/44

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530
FXUS64 KMAF 272324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have a few isolated showers over portions of the Permian
Basin this evening but lightning has not been a problem. Do not
expect any major impacts from this activity so did not include
mention at any terminals. Similar to last night/early this morning,
could see MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys develop at all sites early Sunday
morning before conditions finally return to VFR around 28/18Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening and
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed an eastward moving low
pressure center over Terrell County.  Associated widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still lingering over the Permian
Basin.  Expectations are that this activity will continue through
sunset before finally dissipating.

An upper level storm system located over central California will
make its way into the central Rockies by Monday.  The approach of
this system with result in associated lee trough development from
eastern Co. into Far West Texas by Monday afternoon.  This surface
trough will serve as the focus of isolated thunderstorm development
over the western third of the County Warning Area on Monday and over
portions of the Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday.

Model CAPE values near 1000 J/kg along with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 30 are forecast Tuesday afternoon over the northern
portions of the Permian Basin and into the Rolling Plains. In
edition, the right entrance region of the 250 MB jet is over that
area as well. I thought that was enough to warrant a slight
increase in Tuesday afternoon thunderstorm chances over that area.
It is not inconceivable that we could see an isolated severe thunderstorm
in this general area on Tuesday.

As the upper storm system slides east, so goes the surface trough
and our rain chances.  A cold front moving through the area Thursday
should be a dry one, with drier and cooler air moving into the area
behind it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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366
FXUS64 KMAF 271938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery earlier this morning showed an eastward moving low
pressure center over Terrell County.  Associated widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still lingering over the Permian
Basin.  Expectations are that this activity will continue through
sunset before finally dissipating.

An upper level storm system located over central California will
make its way into the central Rockies by Monday.  The approach of
this system with result in associated lee trough development from
eastern Co. into Far West Texas by Monday afternoon.  This surface
trough will serve as the focus of isolated thunderstorm development
over the western third of the County Warning Area on Monday and over
portions of the Permian Basin Tuesday and Wednesday.

Model CAPE values near 1000 J/kg along with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 30 are forecast Tuesday afternoon over the northern
portions of the Permian Basin and into the Rolling Plains. In
edition, the right entrance region of the 250 MB jet is over that
area as well. I thought that was enough to warrant a slight
increase in Tuesday afternoon thunderstorm chances over that area.
It is not inconceivable that we could see an isolated severe thunderstorm
in this general area on Tuesday.

As the upper storm system slides east, so goes the surface trough
and our rain chances.  A cold front moving through the area Thursday
should be a dry one, with drier and cooler air moving into the area
behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  79  62  83  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  82  64  85  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                60  81  60  85  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  86  66  89  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  85  64  88  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  59  80  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   59  78  60  80  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   52  81  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  81  62  85  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  81  64  85  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  86  64  89  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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222
FXUS64 KMAF 271647
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings should become VFR by early afternoon at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Upper level low pressure
area across the Trans Pecos is expected to produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon
and early this evening. Confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention at any of the terminals. Will continue to monitor.
MVR to IFR conditions are expected to develop again late tonight
at the terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Beginning to see some MVFR cigs develop along the fringes of a
weakly-convective cloud mass over the Permian Basin southwest
toward the Davis Mtns. Think this will burn off nicely by mid
morning. By mid afternoon, expect some buildups over the mountains
and over the Permian Basin/lower trans Pecos. Confidence is
insufficient to mention chances of TSRA at any one terminal at
this time; however INVOF TSRA expect wind gusts near 40 mph
along with MVFR vsbys and cigs. Conditions will quiet down after
sunset. Looks like as if we`ll see a stronger push of Gulf
moisture up this was Sunday morning, but will let later shifts
decide the extent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Today looks like the last day we will have to deal with a pesky
upper low that has remained over our region most of this past week.
Showers have developed over the lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin this morning. These locations are on the eastern
periphery of the low and will be the main focus today for
convection. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be
possible mainly south of I-20 where atmospheric moisture content
remains high. Isolated storms are possible elsewhere, but should
not cause much of a concern for flooding.

Another upper trough to our west will finally kick out the system
over us by Sunday. This should end most rain chances except for
possible terrain induced convection in the Davis Mountains. The
Western U.S. trough will lift into the Plains Monday and give SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX a chance for storms.
Temperatures really warm by midweek under dry, westerly flow
aloft. Yet another trough will swing across the Northern Plains
late next week and push a cold front south. It appears most of the
upper level energy associated with this system will pass well to
our north so a dry frontal passage is expected. Cooler
temperatures and much drier air will fill in behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  61  78  63  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  82  66  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                76  61  81  62  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  82  67  88  69  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  62  83  65  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  56  76  60  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   74  60  77  61  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  54  80  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  63  82  63  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  63  81  64  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    78  64  83  65  /  20  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/29

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414
FXUS64 KMAF 271141 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Beginning to see some MVFR cigs develop along the fringes of a
weakly-convective cloud mass over the Permian Basin southwest
toward the Davis Mtns. Think this will burn off nicely by mid
morning. By mid afternoon, expect some buildups over the mountains
and over the Permian Basin/lower trans Pecos. Confidence is
insufficient to mention chances of TSRA at any one terminal at
this time; however INVOF TSRA expect wind gusts near 40 mph
along with MVFR vsbys and cigs. Conditions will quiet down after
sunset. Looks like as if we`ll see a stronger push of Gulf
moisture up this was Sunday morning, but will let later shifts
decide the extent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Today looks like the last day we will have to deal with a pesky
upper low that has remained over our region most of this past week.
Showers have developed over the lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin this morning. These locations are on the eastern
periphery of the low and will be the main focus today for
convection. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be
possible mainly south of I-20 where atmospheric moisture content
remains high. Isolated storms are possible elsewhere, but should
not cause much of a concern for flooding.

Another upper trough to our west will finally kick out the system
over us by Sunday. This should end most rain chances except for
possible terrain induced convection in the Davis Mountains. The
Western U.S. trough will lift into the Plains Monday and give SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX a chance for storms.
Temperatures really warm by midweek under dry, westerly flow
aloft. Yet another trough will swing across the Northern Plains
late next week and push a cold front south. It appears most of the
upper level energy associated with this system will pass well to
our north so a dry frontal passage is expected. Cooler
temperatures and much drier air will fill in behind the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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170
FXUS64 KMAF 270907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today looks like the last day we will have to deal with a pesky
upper low that has remained over our region most of this past week.
Showers have developed over the lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin this morning. These locations are on the eastern
periphery of the low and will be the main focus today for
convection. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be
possible mainly south of I-20 where atmospheric moisture content
remains high. Isolated storms are possible elsewhere, but should
not cause much of a concern for flooding.

Another upper trough to our west will finally kick out the system
over us by Sunday. This should end most rain chances except for
possible terrain induced convection in the Davis Mountains. The
Western U.S. trough will lift into the Plains Monday and give SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX a chance for storms.
Temperatures really warm by midweek under dry, westerly flow
aloft. Yet another trough will swing across the Northern Plains
late next week and push a cold front south. It appears most of the
upper level energy associated with this system will pass well to
our north so a dry frontal passage is expected. Cooler
temperatures and much drier air will fill in behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  61  78  63  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  82  66  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                76  61  81  62  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  82  67  88  69  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  62  83  65  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  56  76  60  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   74  60  77  61  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  54  80  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  63  82  63  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  63  81  64  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    78  64  83  65  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/29

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209
FXUS64 KMAF 270538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Other than some patchy areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys early this morning,
expect VFR conditions through 28/00Z. The places where cloud cover is
thinnest -- KHOB, KCNM, and KINK -- may experience the best chances
for MVFR cigs/vsbys as radiational cooling at these terminals are
better than the other terminals. Look for skies to become around
SCT050 BKN120 by late morning with southerly to southeasterly winds
AOB 11 kts.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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530
FXUS64 KMAF 262309
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have some light showers over portions of the region with a
few isolated thunderstorms lingering around this evening. Do not
anticipate any major impacts from this activity so did not
include mention of TSRA at any terminals. Will continue to monitor
and amend if/when needed. Could see low cigs/vsbys develop at all
but FST for a few hours early Saturday morning so continued a
tempo of MVFR conditions at these sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail for most of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system currently moving slowly east
across the Big Bend Region has resulted in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the Trans-Pecos region this
afternoon with a few small storms over the Permian Basin as well.
We would expect current activity to gradually weaken as it moves
northwest away from better upper support while new thunderstorm
development occurs slightly further east...perhaps over eastern
Pecos and Terrell counties later tonight.

Any rainfall that occurs this evening or overnight is not expected
to make significant contributions to the Pecos River.  Along the Rio
Grande, gage data at Presidio 6WNW indicates that this location went
into minor flood earlier this morning, but now has begun to subside.
This trend is expected to continue overnight and into Saturday.
Gages at the International Bridge and also at 5 miles southeast of
Presidio are presently above flood stage in response to releases
that have occurred from Luis Leon Reservoir. The GFS does show decent 700
mb moisture into mid-week across the Rio Conchos Basin. This
moisture is likely contributed from the Gulf of Mexico as opposed
to being from Tropical Storm Rachel. Regardless of the source,
moisture is sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this upcoming week along the Rio Conchos. Whether
this will result in the necessity for more releases is not yet
known.

As an upper level storm system presently off the west coast of the
U.S. makes its way eastward toward the Rockies early next week,
associated surface low pressure will develop from eastern
Colorado across eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This
surface trough will gradually slide eastward through the week,
serving as the main focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm
development. Monday activity will generally be confined to the
western third of the forecast area including the northwest Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains
in southwest Texas. As the surface trough slides slowly eastward
Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances should increase across
portions of the Permian Basin.

Finally, a cold front moving into the area next Thursday should
result in reduced rain chances areawide and cooler weather.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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978
FXUS64 KMAF 261957
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system currently moving slowly east
across the Big Bend Region has resulted in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the Trans-Pecos region this
afternoon with a few small storms over the Permian Basin as well.
We would expect current activity to gradually weaken as it moves
northwest away from better upper support while new thunderstorm
development occurs slightly further east...perhaps over eastern
Pecos and Terrell counties later tonight.

Any rainfall that occurs this evening or overnight is not expected
to make significant contributions to the Pecos River.  Along the Rio
Grande, gage data at Presidio 6WNW indicates that this location went
into minor flood earlier this morning, but now has begun to subside.
This trend is expected to continue overnight and into Saturday.
Gages at the International Bridge and also at 5 miles southeast of
Presidio are presently above flood stage in response to releases
that have occurred from Luis Leon Reservoir. The GFS does show decent 700
mb moisture into mid-week across the Rio Conchos Basin. This
moisture is likely contributed from the Gulf of Mexico as opposed
to being from Tropical Storm Rachel. Regardless of the source,
moisture is sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this upcoming week along the Rio Conchos. Whether
this will result in the necessity for more releases is not yet
known.

As an upper level storm system presently off the west coast of the
U.S. makes its way eastward toward the Rockies early next week,
associated surface low pressure will develop from eastern
Colorado across eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This
surface trough will gradually slide eastward through the week,
serving as the main focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm
development. Monday activity will generally be confined to the
western third of the forecast area including the northwest Permian
Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains
in southwest Texas. As the surface trough slides slowly eastward
Tuesday and Wednesday, rain chances should increase across
portions of the Permian Basin.

Finally, a cold front moving into the area next Thursday should
result in reduced rain chances areawide and cooler weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  78  60  81  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  80  65  83  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                57  78  58  82  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  66  81  68  89  /  30  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  81  62  85  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  72  57  80  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   56  77  59  80  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   51  76  53  81  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  80  62  82  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  80  62  83  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    62  83  63  85  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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367
FXUS64 KMAF 261650
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through this evening.  After 06Z patchy low
clouds are possible at MAF, PEQ, FST and INK. Ceilings are not
forecast at this time. With better clearing and calm winds
further north, could see visibilities dropping below 3 miles at
CNM and HOB by daybreak with lighter fog at MAF, INK and PEQ.
Winds will generally be south to southeast at 12 knots or less
through Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.  Skies should slowly
scatter out over the next 24 hours, as an upper trough over West
texas drifts SE. Latest buffer soundings a widespread cu field
developing by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Stubborn upper low continues to meander across the region this
morning. Showers and even a few thunderstorms have been confined
mainly to the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend overnight. A
mid-level disturbance will help enhance showers and storms this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Only isolated
convection is expected over the Permian Basin while western areas
get a chance to dry out. Heavy rain will be a possibility today,
but should stay over locations that have had little rain over the
past week. Similar conditions are expected Saturday before the
pattern begins to change.

Another upper low will cut off from the flow today over the Great
Basin. This system will begin to kick out Sunday and help a weak
ridge build into our area early next week. Drier conditions and
temperatures near or above normal values are expected in its wake.
Models are now in somewhat better agreement that the next trough to
dig into the conus late next week will pass to our north with dry NW
flow over the area. This system does however look to bring a decent
cold front around Thursday with temps falling back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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709
FXUS64 KMAF 260954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.  Skies should slowly
scatter out over the next 24 hours, as an upper trough over West
texas drifts SE. Latest buffer soundings a widespread cu field
developing by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Stubborn upper low continues to meander across the region this
morning. Showers and even a few thunderstorms have been confined
mainly to the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend overnight. A
mid-level disturbance will help enhance showers and storms this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Only isolated
convection is expected over the Permian Basin while western areas
get a chance to dry out. Heavy rain will be a possibility today,
but should stay over locations that have had little rain over the
past week. Similar conditions are expected Saturday before the
pattern begins to change.

Another upper low will cut off from the flow today over the Great
Basin. This system will begin to kick out Sunday and help a weak
ridge build into our area early next week. Drier conditions and
temperatures near or above normal values are expected in its wake.
Models are now in somewhat better agreement that the next trough to
dig into the conus late next week will pass to our north with dry NW
flow over the area. This system does however look to bring a decent
cold front around Thursday with temps falling back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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254
FXUS64 KMAF 260850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Stubborn upper low continues to meander across the region this
morning. Showers and even a few thunderstorms have been confined
mainly to the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend overnight. A
mid-level disturbance will help enhance showers and storms this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Only isolated
convection is expected over the Permian Basin while western areas
get a chance to dry out. Heavy rain will be a possibility today,
but should stay over locations that have had little rain over the
past week. Similar conditions are expected Saturday before the
pattern begins to change.

Another upper low will cut off from the flow today over the Great
Basin. This system will begin to kick out Sunday and help a weak
ridge build into our area early next week. Drier conditions and
temperatures near or above normal values are expected in its wake.
Models are now in somewhat better agreement that the next trough to
dig into the conus late next week will pass to our north with dry NW
flow over the area. This system does however look to bring a decent
cold front around Thursday with temps falling back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  60  77  60  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              81  64  79  65  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                77  58  79  58  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  82  67  82  68  /  40  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  62  79  62  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  57  73  57  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   76  58  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  51  75  53  /  30  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  62  80  62  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  79  62  79  62  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    81  63  82  63  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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254
FXUS64 KMAF 260850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
350 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Stubborn upper low continues to meander across the region this
morning. Showers and even a few thunderstorms have been confined
mainly to the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend overnight. A
mid-level disturbance will help enhance showers and storms this
afternoon across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Only isolated
convection is expected over the Permian Basin while western areas
get a chance to dry out. Heavy rain will be a possibility today,
but should stay over locations that have had little rain over the
past week. Similar conditions are expected Saturday before the
pattern begins to change.

Another upper low will cut off from the flow today over the Great
Basin. This system will begin to kick out Sunday and help a weak
ridge build into our area early next week. Drier conditions and
temperatures near or above normal values are expected in its wake.
Models are now in somewhat better agreement that the next trough to
dig into the conus late next week will pass to our north with dry NW
flow over the area. This system does however look to bring a decent
cold front around Thursday with temps falling back to near normal
behind it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  60  77  60  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              81  64  79  65  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                77  58  79  58  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  82  67  82  68  /  40  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  62  79  62  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  57  73  57  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   76  58  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  51  75  53  /  30  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  62  80  62  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  79  62  79  62  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    81  63  82  63  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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576
FXUS64 KMAF 260516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Skies should slowly scatter out over the next 24 hours, as upper
trough over West texas drifts SE. Buffer soundings suggest a few
hours of MVFR cigs after 12Z KFST/KMAF, but VFR conditions should
prevail otherwise. A widespread cu field is expected to develop by
late morning, w/bases 2.8-4.5 kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Western parts of the CWA are under northerly flow
aloft with an upper ridge centered across the central conus. An
upper low remains over the CWA with enhanced lift over the area. A
slight chance to chance of thunderstorms is across the area for
today as a result.

On Friday, an upper trough will begin moving over the western conus
while most of the rest of the US will be under upper ridging.  The
upper low will begin to move east of the area but a portion will
remain over eastern and southern sections of the CWA so a slight
chance of thunderstorms will be across this area. There will be
another area of enhanced lift across southeast New Mexico with
northerly flow aloft so will keep in thunderstorm chances for this
area as well.  Not much change for Saturday as a remnant of the
upper low will remain over southeast portions of the area.  An upper
trough will be over the western conus progressing eastward on
Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus under upper
ridging aloft.  On Sunday, the upper flow will become westerly and
precipitation will mostly be out of the area except for a slight
chance across the higher terrain as the upper low remnants
dissipate/move out of the area.  The models move the upper trough
eastward on Monday over the Rocky Mountains putting the CWA under
the base of this upper trough; however, storms will be possible
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as the trough passes
overhead.  In advance of this upper trough temperatures will begin
to warm up along a surface trough.  The upper trough will move over
the central conus on Tuesday putting the area under westerly flow
aloft.  The GFS is hinting at a dryline developing across the area
Tuesday afternoon with storms developing along this feature.
Temperatures will continue to warm as a result of dryer air moving
in from the west.  Not much change for Wednesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF produce precipitation for the area with a dryline but did not
add any rain due to inconsistencies on its placement.  The upper
trough becomes centered over the central conus on Thursday with the
dryline and storms developing across far eastern sections of the CWA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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442
FXUS64 KMAF 252339
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have some light showers lingering around the region with
a few isolated thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains early this
evening. Do not expect any of this activity to affect any
terminals however not ruling out additional development just yet
for tonight. Attm, confidence was not high enough to mention in
current TAF but will continue to monitor and amend if/when needed.
Could see low cigs/vsbys develop at HOB and MAF early Friday
morning and went ahead and included a TEMPO of MVFR conditions at
these sites. Could see MVFR at CNM as well but confidence was too
low to include mention attm. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at all other terminals through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Western parts of the CWA are under northerly flow
aloft with an upper ridge centered across the central conus. An
upper low remains over the CWA with enhanced lift over the area. A
slight chance to chance of thunderstorms is across the area for
today as a result.

On Friday, an upper trough will begin moving over the western conus
while most of the rest of the US will be under upper ridging.  The
upper low will begin to move east of the area but a portion will
remain over eastern and southern sections of the CWA so a slight
chance of thunderstorms will be across this area. There will be
another area of enhanced lift across southeast New Mexico with
northerly flow aloft so will keep in thunderstorm chances for this
area as well.  Not much change for Saturday as a remnant of the
upper low will remain over southeast portions of the area.  An upper
trough will be over the western conus progressing eastward on
Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus under upper
ridging aloft.  On Sunday, the upper flow will become westerly and
precipitation will mostly be out of the area except for a slight
chance across the higher terrain as the upper low remnants
dissipate/move out of the area.  The models move the upper trough
eastward on Monday over the Rocky Mountains putting the CWA under
the base of this upper trough; however, storms will be possible
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as the trough passes
overhead.  In advance of this upper trough temperatures will begin
to warm up along a surface trough.  The upper trough will move over
the central conus on Tuesday putting the area under westerly flow
aloft.  The GFS is hinting at a dryline developing across the area
Tuesday afternoon with storms developing along this feature.
Temperatures will continue to warm as a result of dryer air moving
in from the west.  Not much change for Wednesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF produce precipitation for the area with a dryline but did not
add any rain due to inconsistencies on its placement.  The upper
trough becomes centered over the central conus on Thursday with the
dryline and storms developing across far eastern sections of the CWA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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324
FXUS64 KMAF 251932
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Western parts of the CWA are under northerly flow
aloft with an upper ridge centered across the central conus. An
upper low remains over the CWA with enhanced lift over the area. A
slight chance to chance of thunderstorms is across the area for
today as a result.

On Friday, an upper trough will begin moving over the western conus
while most of the rest of the US will be under upper ridging.  The
upper low will begin to move east of the area but a portion will
remain over eastern and southern sections of the CWA so a slight
chance of thunderstorms will be across this area. There will be
another area of enhanced lift across southeast New Mexico with
northerly flow aloft so will keep in thunderstorm chances for this
area as well.  Not much change for Saturday as a remnant of the
upper low will remain over southeast portions of the area.  An upper
trough will be over the western conus progressing eastward on
Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus under upper
ridging aloft.  On Sunday, the upper flow will become westerly and
precipitation will mostly be out of the area except for a slight
chance across the higher terrain as the upper low remnants
dissipate/move out of the area.  The models move the upper trough
eastward on Monday over the Rocky Mountains putting the CWA under
the base of this upper trough; however, storms will be possible
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as the trough passes
overhead.  In advance of this upper trough temperatures will begin
to warm up along a surface trough.  The upper trough will move over
the central conus on Tuesday putting the area under westerly flow
aloft.  The GFS is hinting at a dryline developing across the area
Tuesday afternoon with storms developing along this feature.
Temperatures will continue to warm as a result of dryer air moving
in from the west.  Not much change for Wednesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF produce precipitation for the area with a dryline but did not
add any rain due to inconsistencies on its placement.  The upper
trough becomes centered over the central conus on Thursday with the
dryline and storms developing across far eastern sections of the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  79  59  80  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  81  61  81  /  10  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  80  58  80  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  64  86  64  85  /  20  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  82  60  82  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  73  55  77  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   56  78  57  79  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   52  75  51  75  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  82  60  81  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  81  60  81  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    63  84  62  84  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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868
FXUS64 KMAF 251725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper low will bring scattered showers and TS to the area with
the best chances being at HOB and CNM. Chance of TS is too low at
other TAF sites to put in the forecast at this time and will
instead amend as needed. VFR conditions expected through the
period with light southeast winds.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Unfortunately, more heavy rain fell across parts of the area
overnight. The area near Red Bluff Reservoir received 3 to 4 inches
of rain while locations between Hobbs and Gail saw 1 to 3 inches.
The Delaware and Pecos Rivers north of Red Bluff have already
shown a rise this morning. This water will head into Red Bluff
and likely keep lake and river levels high through the week.

A weak upper low continues to affect the area by bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, convection is
expected to form just north of the Permian Basin and move south into
the area during the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest portions of the Permian Basin. Heavy rain fell there
yesterday and more is possible today so localized flash flooding
will be a threat. The upper low will remain over the area Friday
while a mid level disturbance moves west across south Texas. This
will increase chances for storms over the lower Trans Pecos. A deep
trough to our west will finally kick the upper low northeast by
Saturday. Weak ridging will then develop over the area keeping rain
chances low and warming temps to near normal this weekend.

The western trough then lifts into the Northern Plains early next
week while transitioning our flow aloft to southwest. This looks
like a very springlike pattern as a dryline sets up across the area.
Models begin to diverge with the overall upper pattern mid to late
week so didn`t make many changes to the extended.

Pecos River Flood Update...

The Red Bluff Reservoir spillway discharge decreased Wednesday, but
has began to increase once again this morning due to the heavy
rain overnight. A large increase of water into Red Bluff is not
expected. The Pecos River near Orla crested yesterday and will
continue to fall, however this fall may slow due to last nights
heavy rain. River levels at Pecos are holding steady this morning,
but will slowly begin to rise today. The river will crest tonight
or Friday at Pecos and then slowly fall into the weekend. This
crest appears to be very similar to the one that affected the city
of Pecos Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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706
FXUS64 KMAF 250958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer soundings
develop a cu field late morning/early afternoon invof KCNM,
KHOB, and KINK, w/bases 2.3-6 kft agl. Plenty of mid/hi cloud will
hamper fog development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Unfortunately, more heavy rain fell across parts of the area
overnight. The area near Red Bluff Reservoir received 3 to 4 inches
of rain while locations between Hobbs and Gail saw 1 to 3 inches.
The Delaware and Pecos Rivers north of Red Bluff have already
shown a rise this morning. This water will head into Red Bluff
and likely keep lake and river levels high through the week.

A weak upper low continues to affect the area by bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, convection is
expected to form just north of the Permian Basin and move south into
the area during the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest portions of the Permian Basin. Heavy rain fell there
yesterday and more is possible today so localized flash flooding
will be a threat. The upper low will remain over the area Friday
while a mid level disturbance moves west across south Texas. This
will increase chances for storms over the lower Trans Pecos. A deep
trough to our west will finally kick the upper low northeast by
Saturday. Weak ridging will then develop over the area keeping rain
chances low and warming temps to near normal this weekend.

The western trough then lifts into the Northern Plains early next
week while transitioning our flow aloft to southwest. This looks
like a very springlike pattern as a dryline sets up across the area.
Models begin to diverge with the overall upper pattern mid to late
week so didn`t make many changes to the extended.

Pecos River Flood Update...

The Red Bluff Reservoir spillway discharge decreased Wednesday, but
has began to increase once again this morning due to the heavy
rain overnight. A large increase of water into Red Bluff is not
expected. The Pecos River near Orla crested yesterday and will
continue to fall, however this fall may slow due to last nights
heavy rain. River levels at Pecos are holding steady this morning,
but will slowly begin to rise today. The river will crest tonight
or Friday at Pecos and then slowly fall into the weekend. This
crest appears to be very similar to the one that affected the city
of Pecos Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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802
FXUS64 KMAF 250913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Unfortunately, more heavy rain fell across parts of the area
overnight. The area near Red Bluff Reservoir received 3 to 4 inches
of rain while locations between Hobbs and Gail saw 1 to 3 inches.
The Delaware and Pecos Rivers north of Red Bluff have already
shown a rise this morning. This water will head into Red Bluff
and likely keep lake and river levels high through the week.

A weak upper low continues to affect the area by bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, convection is
expected to form just north of the Permian Basin and move south into
the area during the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest portions of the Permian Basin. Heavy rain fell there
yesterday and more is possible today so localized flash flooding
will be a threat. The upper low will remain over the area Friday
while a mid level disturbance moves west across south Texas. This
will increase chances for storms over the lower Trans Pecos. A deep
trough to our west will finally kick the upper low northeast by
Saturday. Weak ridging will then develop over the area keeping rain
chances low and warming temps to near normal this weekend.

The western trough then lifts into the Northern Plains early next
week while transitioning our flow aloft to southwest. This looks
like a very springlike pattern as a dryline sets up across the area.
Models begin to diverge with the overall upper pattern mid to late
week so didn`t make many changes to the extended.

Pecos River Flood Update...

The Red Bluff Reservoir spillway discharge decreased Wednesday, but
has began to increase once again this morning due to the heavy
rain overnight. A large increase of water into Red Bluff is not
expected. The Pecos River near Orla crested yesterday and will
continue to fall, however this fall may slow due to last nights
heavy rain. River levels at Pecos are holding steady this morning,
but will slowly begin to rise today. The river will crest tonight
or Friday at Pecos and then slowly fall into the weekend. This
crest appears to be very similar to the one that affected the city
of Pecos Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  79  59  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              83  62  81  64  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                80  57  80  58  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  67  87  65  /  10  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  61  81  60  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  56  73  56  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   77  57  78  57  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   79  52  76  52  /  20  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  60  82  60  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  81  61  81  61  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    83  63  84  62  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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127
FXUS64 KMAF 250441
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Area radars show
convection diminishing rapidly, and models suggest an otherwise
quiet night. Buffer soundings break out a cu field by late morning
everywhere except KFST, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to track south into the CWA with the line
pushing into Southeast NM. Adjusted PoP, sky, and weather grids
to account for the line`s progress into the forecast area tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential of
current convection to the north briefly impacting CNM and HOB this
evening. Currently have modest southeast winds areawide with
isolated thunderstorms near the higher terrain regions. A line of
thunderstorms oriented W-E from KDR1 to KLBB currently racing
southward this evening. If it holds together and keeps its current
speed, best guess is that thunderstorms will affect KHOB around
25/01Z then KCNM by 25/02Z. This activity may be capable of briefly
producing gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
At this time, not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach
the other terminals but will continue to monitor and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
sites through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are
anticipated.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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127
FXUS64 KMAF 250441
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Area radars show
convection diminishing rapidly, and models suggest an otherwise
quiet night. Buffer soundings break out a cu field by late morning
everywhere except KFST, w/bases 3-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to track south into the CWA with the line
pushing into Southeast NM. Adjusted PoP, sky, and weather grids
to account for the line`s progress into the forecast area tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential of
current convection to the north briefly impacting CNM and HOB this
evening. Currently have modest southeast winds areawide with
isolated thunderstorms near the higher terrain regions. A line of
thunderstorms oriented W-E from KDR1 to KLBB currently racing
southward this evening. If it holds together and keeps its current
speed, best guess is that thunderstorms will affect KHOB around
25/01Z then KCNM by 25/02Z. This activity may be capable of briefly
producing gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
At this time, not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach
the other terminals but will continue to monitor and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
sites through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are
anticipated.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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536
FXUS64 KMAF 250025
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
725 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms continue to track south into the CWA with the line
pushing into Southeast NM. Adjusted PoP, sky, and weather grids
to account for the line`s progress into the forecast area tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential of
current convection to the north briefly impacting CNM and HOB this
evening. Currently have modest southeast winds areawide with
isolated thunderstorms near the higher terrain regions. A line of
thunderstorms oriented W-E from KDR1 to KLBB currently racing
southward this evening. If it holds together and keeps its current
speed, best guess is that thunderstorms will affect KHOB around
25/01Z then KCNM by 25/02Z. This activity may be capable of briefly
producing gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
At this time, not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach
the other terminals but will continue to monitor and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
sites through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  80  59  80  /  60  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  82  59  82  /  40  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                61  80  57  80  /  60  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  85  65  86  /  20  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  83  60  83  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  76  55  74  /  50  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   60  78  56  78  /  70  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   56  77  51  75  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  82  59  82  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  63  82  59  81  /  40  20  10  10
WINK TX                    64  83  61  84  /  40  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13/99

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023
FXUS64 KMAF 242324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential of
current convection to the north briefly impacting CNM and HOB this
evening. Currently have modest southeast winds areawide with
isolated thunderstorms near the higher terrain regions. A line of
thunderstorms oriented W-E from KDR1 to KLBB currently racing
southward this evening. If it holds together and keeps its current
speed, best guess is that thunderstorms will affect KHOB around
25/01Z then KCNM by 25/02Z. This activity may be capable of briefly
producing gusty winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
At this time, not sure if it will hold together long enough to reach
the other terminals but will continue to monitor and amend if/when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
sites through the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
across the area. There is still flooding along the Pecos River and
in Eddy County as well so have continued the Areal Flood Warnings in
these locations. Any additional rain in these areas will worsen
conditions as the ground is already saturated. The region is under
generally north to northwest flow aloft with an upper ridge centered
across the four corners region and a trough over the Upper Midwest
today.  This upper flow pattern is allowing for shortwaves to move
over the area with much of the upper lift being over the eastern and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms is across the area for today as a result.  Not much is
expected to change on Thursday as enhanced lift remains over the
area so a slight chance of rain will continue.

On Friday, a remnant upper low from the upper trough that was over
the Upper Midwest will be over the region.  Upper lift will be
enhanced over areas generally south and west of the Pecos River, so
there is a slight chance of thunderstorms for this area on Friday.
The upper lift will start to decrease over the area on Saturday so
chances of precipitation will decrease with best chances being
across the higher terrain.  An upper trough will move over the
western conus on Saturday with the eastern two thirds of the conus
under upper ridging aloft.  This will continue to result in drying
conditions for the area.  Early next week, the models move the
western conus upper trough eastward while maintaining the upper
low/trough near the Mississippi River.  The models differ on the
position of these upper troughs going into the early to middle of
next week but generally expect the two troughs to come closer
together and perhaps begin to merge.  The GFS is producing
precipitation during the early to middle part of next week across
the area as a result of the approaching trough but the ECMWF is
keeping conditions dry.  Expect temperatures through the forecast
period to remain within 5 degrees of normal since no cold fronts are
anticipated.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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