Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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191
FXUS64 KMAF 180323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.UPDATE...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 482 until 200 AM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to develop in a moderately unstable
airmass over the Permian Basin. The presence of at least 2
supercells indicate shear and instability are good enough
for organized convection to continue into the wee hours of the
morning, with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding possible. Will send another ZFP to
include the new Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

See 00z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

Severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail are possible
across all terminals through this evening. Possible MVFR ceilings
and visibilities for HOB; otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds will be
light out of a generally southerly direction.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

One more punch from the passing 3h jet today is expected to
result/aid in the development of tstms, some severe with heavy rain.
Today tstm initiation is favored to be in SE NM and the Trans Pecos
Mtns/Wrn PB in closer proximity to said jet/where mid level lapse
rates are steepest and where there are less clouds/more insolation,
respectively. A surface boundary is still around too and looks to
have lifted back n of I-20 (winds are back to the SE at MAF). Meanwhile
a second boundary assocd with tstms to the N-NE of CWFA earlier
was moving SW and may merge with said boundary. Finally a
3rd boundary is moving w into the SE PB. 12Z MAF sounding reveals
deep mstr and plenty of available energy. A 21Z forecast of the
MAF sounding does reveal ML CAPE of 2800 J/KG and 45kts of 0-6km
bulk shear with no CINH (89/66) supportive of at least a few
severe storms. As storms develop in the said favored areas around
21Z they are likely to track E, possibly SE (in the eventual form
an MCS?) into the low level moist axis within a region of upper
divergence (RRQ of 3h 70-80kt jet). Forecast has chance/scattered
PoPs across most of the area and seems reasonable. Based on latest
high resolution model data will opt to increase PoPs from INVOF
Davis Mtns into at least the wrn PB and expand the mention of
severe wording too. Some of the data (GFS) holds precip after 06Z,
but we tend to prefer scenario of lower PoPs after 06Z like that
of the NAM12. Mid level ridge starts to build in Sunday, but while
doing so mid level flow will briefly become NW and there could be
an isold pocket of convection across the PB late Sunday PM as SB
instability may focus within a small area of high theta-e air at
the surface. Isold-sct tstms INVOF Davis Mtns is more likely. All
of the MOS guidance is eager to increase high temps starting
Sunday thru Monday, especially from I-20 swd with highs back into
the M90s. The ridge will be strongest Monday/Tuesday but models
still show a SE mid level wind advecting in cooler mid level
temps, so Sunday/Monday will probably be the hottest days, but
Tuesday will still be above normal with the possibility of a cold
front next weekend. Otherwise forecast will be mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  71  95 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       65  91  64  93 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         72  95  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  94  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  87 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          64  88  64  90 /  40  10   0   0
Marfa                          62  87  62  87 /  30  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  70  96 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         69  94  70  95 /  40  10  10   0
Wink                           69  95  69  97 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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