Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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471
FXUS64 KMAF 271657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1057 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue at the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Fog and occasional very
light snow pellets and very light freezing drizzle will continue.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin.  Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions.  Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 27  24  46  39  /  60  30  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              26  24  44  40  /  70  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                32  25  53  35  /  50  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  40  35  51  44  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  31  61  44  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  23  54  39  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   27  23  46  35  /  60  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   44  23  60  32  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  25  47  41  /  50  30  20  20
ODESSA TX                  30  26  50  41  /  50  30  20  10
WINK TX                    32  30  54  40  /  50  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.


&&

$$


99/99

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045
FXUS64 KMAF 271216
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin.  Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions.  Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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299
FXUS64 KMAF 271150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...

Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin.  Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions.  Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 27  24  46  39  /  60  30  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              26  24  44  40  /  70  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                32  25  53  35  /  50  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  40  35  51  44  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  31  61  44  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  23  54  39  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   27  23  46  35  /  60  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   44  23  60  32  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  25  47  41  /  50  30  20  20
ODESSA TX                  30  26  50  41  /  50  30  20  10
WINK TX                    32  30  54  40  /  50  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/99

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770
FXUS64 KMAF 271121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 27  24  46  39  /  60  30  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              26  24  44  40  /  70  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                32  25  53  35  /  50  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  40  35  51  44  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  31  61  44  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  23  54  39  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   27  23  46  35  /  60  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   44  23  60  32  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    29  25  47  41  /  50  30  20  20
ODESSA TX                  30  26  50  41  /  50  30  20  10
WINK TX                    32  30  54  40  /  50  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

49/80

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724
FXUS64 KMAF 270536
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for this TAF cycle will be low cigs likely
affecting all terminals for the next 24 hours. Currently have MVFR
ceilings across the board with elevated E/NE winds in place. Some
light radar returns now showing up over SE NM and western Permian
Basin. Expect to see light snow at CNM then spread east and south
through at least Friday morning. Visibility restrictions will be
possible at times with periods of heavier snow. MVFR cigs look to
affect all terminals through much of the day Friday. The NAM MOS
continues to show ceilings drop to IFR Friday evening but confidence
is too low to include mention attm. For now, will continue MVFR
through the TAF period and make adjustments if needed.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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475
FXUS64 KMAF 262325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals, potentially through the end of this TAF cycle.
Currently have MVFR ceilings reported at all but INK, although the
cloud deck should drop back down at INK shortly. MVFR cigs look to
affect all sites through at least mid-day Friday, if not longer.
Will keep MVFR going through the 24 hour TAF period and make
adjustments if conditions look to improve, however there is a
chance conditions could deteriorate late afternoon Friday. Light
snow is expected to develop just after midnight at NM terminals
and quickly spread east and south. Visibility restrictions will be
possible at times with periods of heavier snowfall. Otherwise,
gusty NE winds may diminish slightly late tonight as winds slowly
veer to the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will continue to fall across the area tonight as
cold air advection continues in the wake of a cold front that
moved through the region early in the day. A few light snow/sleet
showers have moved across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin through this afternoon, though little to no accumulation has
resulted. This will change tonight, however, as low and midlevel
moisture will increase ahead of a disturbance that will move
through the region over the next 24 hours. This increased moisture
will result in the development of snow, first across southeastern
New Mexico this evening, gradually spreading southeast across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin overnight. The greatest
accumulations are expected to be over Lea county New Mexico as
well as the northern Permian Basin, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
are possible through late Friday morning. Accumulations may also
be enhanced on the lee side of higher terrain across Eddy county
New Mexico as well as the Guadalupe Mountains of southwest Texas
in Culberson county due to upslope flow generated by a brisk
easterly to northeasterly wind. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued through late Friday morning for the aforementioned
areas, so please see the appropriate product for details. South of
the advisory area, mainly across the southern Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation are possible
before the disturbance shifts to the east of the area on Friday
afternoon. Have also gone ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mountains to a High Wind Warning tonight through
Friday morning, with brisk northeast winds expected to gust up to
65mph in the Warning area. Please see that appropriate product for
further details.

Friday looks to be the coldest day of the next week, with highs
ranging from the low to middle 20s across far southeastern New
Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s and low 50s near the
Rio Grande. Breezy east to northeast winds will also result in
widespread wind chill values in the single digits and teens
through midday Friday. Have also trended a bit cooler over areas
expected to see the most snowfall both on Friday and Friday night.
The threat of a wintry mix of precipitation will continue through
Saturday, mainly across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western
Low Rolling Plains, before a return to southerly surface winds
late Saturday mark the beginning of a warming trend that will
continue through the middle of next week. The warming trend will
be further supported by yet another shortwave rounding the back of
the longwave CONUS trough, which will begin to dig south across
the west coast, resulting in southwesterly flow at 850mb by
Sunday. Near to even slightly above normal temperatures in the low
to mid 60s to low 70s are expected from Sunday through Wednesday,
and there`s another chance for rain across portions of the area
Sunday night through Monday night. As the aforementioned trough
over the western US begins to move east on Tuesday, the focus for
precipitation will shift north, yielding a dry forecast for late
in the extended. By next Wednesday night/Thursday, another cold
front associated with the upper trough looks to impact the area,
though the GFS is roughly 12 hours faster with this feature than
the ECMWF, so will maintain near normal temperatures on Wednesday,
and then slightly cooler for Thursday, with highs once again
dropping below normal into the 50s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

27

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613
FXUS64 KMAF 262140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will continue to fall across the area tonight as
cold air advection continues in the wake of a cold front that
moved through the region early in the day. A few light snow/sleet
showers have moved across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin through this afternoon, though little to no accumulation has
resulted. This will change tonight, however, as low and midlevel
moisture will increase ahead of a disturbance that will move
through the region over the next 24 hours. This increased moisture
will result in the development of snow, first across southeastern
New Mexico this evening, gradually spreading southeast across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin overnight. The greatest
accumulations are expected to be over Lea county New Mexico as
well as the northern Permian Basin, where 2 to 4 inches of snow
are possible through late Friday morning. Accumulations may also
be enhanced on the lee side of higher terrain across Eddy county
New Mexico as well as the Guadalupe Mountains of southwest Texas
in Culberson county due to upslope flow generated by a brisk
easterly to northeasterly wind. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued through late Friday morning for the aforementioned
areas, so please see the appropriate product for details. South of
the advisory area, mainly across the southern Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation are possible
before the disturbance shifts to the east of the area on Friday
afternoon. Have also gone ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mountains to a High Wind Warning tonight through
Friday morning, with brisk northeast winds expected to gust up to
65mph in the Warning area. Please see that appropriate product for
further details.

Friday looks to be the coldest day of the next week, with highs
ranging from the low to middle 20s across far southeastern New
Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s and low 50s near the
Rio Grande. Breezy east to northeast winds will also result in
widespread wind chill values in the single digits and teens
through midday Friday. Have also trended a bit cooler over areas
expected to see the most snowfall both on Friday and Friday night.
The threat of a wintry mix of precipitation will continue through
Saturday, mainly across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western
Low Rolling Plains, before a return to southerly surface winds
late Saturday mark the beginning of a warming trend that will
continue through the middle of next week. The warming trend will
be further supported by yet another shortwave rounding the back of
the longwave CONUS trough, which will begin to dig south across
the west coast, resulting in southwesterly flow at 850mb by
Sunday. Near to even slightly above normal temperatures in the low
to mid 60s to low 70s are expected from Sunday through Wednesday,
and there`s another chance for rain across portions of the area
Sunday night through Monday night. As the aforementioned trough
over the western US begins to move east on Tuesday, the focus for
precipitation will shift north, yielding a dry forecast for late
in the extended. By next Wednesday night/Thursday, another cold
front associated with the upper trough looks to impact the area,
though the GFS is roughly 12 hours faster with this feature than
the ECMWF, so will maintain near normal temperatures on Wednesday,
and then slightly cooler for Thursday, with highs once again
dropping below normal into the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 19  26  24  48  /  60  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              20  26  24  46  /  50  60  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                25  32  26  58  /  60  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  32  40  36  54  /  20  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           26  37  30  60  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          17  33  23  55  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   19  27  24  48  /  70  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   21  46  21  62  /  10  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    21  29  25  49  /  40  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  21  30  26  50  /  40  30  20  20
WINK TX                    25  32  30  57  /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Martin...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

99/84

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 261723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF issuance
MVFR cigs in place across all terminals through the afternoon and
overnight. Ceilings may rise at KFST and KCNM briefly but it
should not last as another disturbance moves across the region
tonight. Light snow is expected to develop mainly across the
northern terminals around midnight and continue most of Friday.
Lowered vsbys possibly down to a mile at times are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Light snow across the far eastern Permian
Basin and western low rolling plains.

DISCUSSION...
Radar and observations show light snow falling from near Gail, to
Snyder, to Colorado City this morning. There may be some light
accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts
across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution
should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Snow
will diminish this afternoon but more is possible later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico.  Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area.  There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus.  High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area.  MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued.  Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin.  Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas.  A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.

The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches.  Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin.  Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts.  Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA.  Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area.  A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 7 PM MST this evening through Friday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 261625
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1025 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Light snow across the far eastern Permian
Basin and western low rolling plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and observations show light snow falling from near Gail, to
Snyder, to Colorado City this morning. There may be some light
accumulations of up to around 1/2", which should limit impacts
across this area though temperatures are below freezing so caution
should be exercised especially along I-20 near Colorado City. Snow
will diminish this afternoon but more is possible later tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico.  Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area.  There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus.  High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area.  MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued.  Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin.  Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas.  A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.

The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches.  Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin.  Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts.  Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA.  Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area.  A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  20  27  26  /  40  30  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              34  20  27  24  /  40  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                41  24  34  26  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  50  32  40  35  /  10  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           40  24  38  32  /  10  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  20  33  24  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   35  19  28  24  /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   48  21  46  24  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  22  29  27  /  30  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  36  22  30  27  /  20  20  30  20
WINK TX                    40  25  32  31  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from 7 PM MST this evening through Friday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/99

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301
FXUS64 KMAF 261133
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have made it to HOB, nearing CNM and an hr or so out
from MAF. Winds have recently increased at HOB and expect this will
be the trend at other sites thru the mid morning. MVFR CIGS are
generally expected to hold thru the day, possibly lifting some late
before lowering again overnight. There will be an increased chance
of snow tonight especially at HOB and have included prevailing
-SHSN toward end of the forecast there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico.  Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area.  There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus.  High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area.  MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued.  Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin.  Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas.  A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.

The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches.  Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin.  Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts.  Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA.  Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area.  A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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826
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds are across the area with light snow showers
across northern portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico.  Colder temperatures are moving into the region behind the
cold front with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s across most
of the area.  There is a slight chance of a snow/sleet/light rain mix
across the northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper Trans Pecos today with a broad
upper trough in place across most of the conus.  High winds are
possible through Guadalupe Pass this evening through early tomorrow
morning as the pressure gradient increases across this area.  MOSS
guidance is indicating high winds for this time period so a High
Wind Watch is being issued.  Precipitation chances will increase
across the area tonight with the best chances being across northern
Lea County and the northern Permian Basin.  Expect precipitation
across this area to be in the form of snow with a mixture of sleet
and snow possible further south to the mountains of West Texas.  A
rain/snow mix will be possible across the Big Bend and southern
Terrell County.

The precipitation will gradually shift to the east on Friday
afternoon with highs in the 20s across most of the Permian Basin.
The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains,
eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos.  High temperatures on
Saturday will warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area
so precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon
approaches.  Up to 2 inches of snow is possible across northern Lea
County with an inch or more possible across the northern Permian
Basin.  Did not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
although one may need to be issued later today depending on
forecasted QPF/snow amounts.  Will go ahead and issue an SPS to
cover the hazards.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains as the upper trough gets closer to the
region.  The upper trough will begin passing over the area on
Wednesday with the models keeping most of the precipitation north of
the CWA.  Strong west winds are expected on Wednesday as the base of
the upper trough moves over the area.  A cold front associated with
the upper trough will move into the area Wednesday evening allowing
for colder temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  20  27  26  /  20  30  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              34  20  27  24  /  20  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                41  24  34  26  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  50  32  40  35  /  10  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           40  24  38  32  /  10  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  20  33  24  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   35  19  28  24  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   48  21  46  24  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  22  29  27  /  10  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  36  22  30  27  /  10  20  30  20
WINK TX                    40  25  32  31  /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from this evening through Friday morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/80

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954
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. NE winds will increase
in wake of a strong cold front at the terminals before 09Z,
especially MAF/HOB/INK/PEQ . MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 12z Thursday at all the terminals and continue through much
of Thursday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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410
FXUS64 KMAF 260323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Quick update to include PoPs across northern Lea County and far
northern parts of the Permian Basin for tonight. A disturbance is
moving south across E NM along with a strong cold front. Radar
echoes are present across NM, but little is reaching the ground
yet due to an abundance of dry air near the sfc. Expect a dusting
of snow in this area with some parts of far northern Lea County
possibly seeing a half inch or so. This system should weaken
across the region in the morning leaving behind a much colder day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. West winds will diminish
early this evening and become mainly northwest at 10 mph or less.
A strong cold front will push south through the terminals after
06z tonight and will result in a wind shift to the northeast
with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop around 12z Thursday at all
the terminals.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwave trough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.

An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  38  19  29  /  10  10  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              31  38  20  30  /   0  10  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                33  40  21  34  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  38  50  30  40  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           32  43  24  36  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  39  20  33  /   0  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   29  36  18  28  /  20  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  46  21  43  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  39  21  32  /   0  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                  32  40  21  32  /   0  10  20  30
WINK TX                    33  43  24  33  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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555
FXUS64 KMAF 252321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. West winds will diminish
early this evening and become mainly northwest at 10 mph or less.
A strong cold front will push south through the terminals after
06z tonight and will result in a wind shift to the northeast
with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop around 12z Thursday at all
the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwave trough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.

An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  38  19  29  /   0  10  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              31  38  20  30  /   0  10  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                33  40  21  34  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  38  50  30  40  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           32  43  24  36  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  39  20  33  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   29  36  18  28  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  46  21  43  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  39  21  32  /   0  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                  32  40  21  32  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    33  43  24  33  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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693
FXUS64 KMAF 252140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough continues across the central us with a series
of weak shortwaves rotating around the trough. Temperatures today
have rebounded back into the 60s with clear skies and westerly
winds. for tonight...another shortwave trough will head southward
across the Central Plains bringing a cold front through the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s
tonight with gusty north winds. A little light snow may develop
across the Panhandle and western New Mexico late tonight...but
confidence is low that it will make it this far south. Any snow
that develops will likely be very light and not cause any
significant travel issues. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with
cold air advection and increased cloud cover.

An active pattern continues through the weekend into early next
week. Another weak shortwave will bring a chance of precipitation
to mainly northern areas again Thursday night. Temperature
profiles show snow as the predominant precipitation type. Expect
amounts to be relatively light...possibly a half inch or less
across the far north. Light snow will continue Friday and Friday
night with total accumulations up to 1 inch possible. Temperatures
start to warm up for the weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Saturday. Will continue with a slight chance of precip through
Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move across the area in
the southwest flow aloft. With temperatures above
freezing...expect the precipitation to fall as light rain.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 30  38  19  29  /   0  10  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              31  38  20  30  /   0  10  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                33  40  21  34  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  38  50  30  40  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           32  43  24  36  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          29  39  20  33  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   29  36  18  28  /  10  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   28  46  21  43  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    31  39  21  32  /   0  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                  32  40  21  32  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    33  43  24  33  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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029
FXUS64 KMAF 251710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals through much of this TAF
forecast package. Stratus will develop behind a cold front
Thursday morning, and have MVFR ceilings at the KMAF and KHOB
terminals after 10Z. The winds will be westerly this afternoon with
gusts to 20 knots and north to northeast tonight and Friday with
gusts to 30 knots after 07Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

UPDATE...
Removed pops this morning.

DISCUSSION...
The snow has all but completely ended across the area this
morning. Issued a quick update to take it out of the forecast...
still on track for a warm and sunny day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light snow and low ceilings will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours.  Winds will mostly be out of the west with stronger
winds occurring during the afternoon hours.  A cold front with
northerly winds will begin moving through the area around 04z.  Some
gusts and low ceilings will be possible behind this front,
especially toward 12z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events.  A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country.  This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days.  By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday.  This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region.  This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday.  And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettled wx.

It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s.   Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37.  Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.
Friday will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope
wind remains across the area through the day and with a good chance
of precip look for clouds to remain through the day.  By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover.  The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s.  These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.

As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin.  Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin.  Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF.  Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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450
FXUS64 KMAF 251216
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Removed pops this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The snow has all but completely ended across the area this
morning. Issued a quick update to take it out of the forecast...
still on track for a warm and sunny day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light snow and low ceilings will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours.  Winds will mostly be out of the west with stronger
winds occurring during the afternoon hours.  A cold front with
northerly winds will begin moving through the area around 04z.  Some
gusts and low ceilings will be possible behind this front,
especially toward 12z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events.  A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country.  This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days.  By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday.  This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region.  This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday.  And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettled wx.

It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s.   Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37.  Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.
Friday will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope
wind remains across the area through the day and with a good chance
of precip look for clouds to remain through the day.  By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover.  The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s.  These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.

As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin.  Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin.  Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF.  Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  30  39  19  /  10   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              62  31  40  20  /  10   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                62  33  41  21  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  38  51  30  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  32  44  24  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  29  40  20  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  29  37  18  /   0  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   64  28  47  21  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  31  40  21  /  10   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  61  32  41  21  /  10   0  10  20
WINK TX                    64  33  44  24  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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787
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light snow and low ceilings will move out of the area over the next
couple of hours.  Winds will mostly be out of the west with stronger
winds occurring during the afternoon hours.  A cold front with
northerly winds will begin moving through the area around 04z.  Some
gusts and low ceilings will be possible behind this front,
especially toward 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events.  A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country.  This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days.  By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday.  This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region.  This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday.  And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettled wx.

It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s.   Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37.  Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.
Friday will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope
wind remains across the area through the day and with a good chance
of precip look for clouds to remain through the day.  By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover.  The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s.  These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.

As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin.  Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin.  Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF.  Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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531
FXUS64 KMAF 250953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Active and wet wx pattern looks to continue through the weekend into
next week with lots of small precip events.  A strong upper low
moving across the area this morning will quickly pass to the east
putting the region on the east edge of a West Coast ridge and a
and on the west side of a broad trough over the center of the
country.  This trough will continue to rotate shortwaves down into
the area next couple of days.  By Friday a strong upper trough will
start to work down the West Coast moving over the Great Basin by
Sunday and over AZ on Monday.  This will put the area into SW flow
aloft and allow any disturbance ejected ahead of the trough to track
into the region.  This trough should move into the area early
Tuesday.  And after that trough passes another one follows it up.
So will have an extended period of low unsettled wx.

It will be much warmer today with lots of sunshine and a warm west
wind that will push temps into the 60s.   Normal for this time of
year is hi 65 lo 37.  Warm up will be short lived as another cold
front arrives overnight knocking highs back into the 40s for
Thursday with a chilly north wind sweeping across the region.  Friday
will be cold with highs mainly in the 30s as an east/upslope wind
remains across the area through the day and with a good chance of
precip look for clouds to remain through the day.  By Saturday a
south wind starts to return and temps begin to recover.  The warm up
continues Sunday with highs returning to the 60s and 70s.  These
warmer temps will continue into the middle of next week.

As of 09z the upper low can be seen on WV moving across W TX.
Currently have precip that is mainly snow with a little rain mixed
in rotating around this low and moving across the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin.  Not sure if this will be out of the area by 12z so
will go ahead and add a mention of light rain/snow this morning
across the Central and Eastern Permian Basin.  Not expecting much if
any accumulation as too warm but at 945z is coming down fairly hard
at MAF.  Will have a slight chance of rain/snow over SE NM Thursday
with light snow chances spreading east across the area Thursday
night. Friday looks to be the best chance of precip for much of
the area with most of it as snow with some mixed precip on the
southern edges. Currently only have accumulations up to an inch.
Low chances of precip skirting mainly the eastern part of the area
continue into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  30  39  19  /  10   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              62  31  40  20  /  10   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                62  33  41  21  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  38  51  30  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  32  44  24  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  29  40  20  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  29  37  18  /   0  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   64  28  47  21  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  31  40  21  /  10   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  61  32  41  21  /  10   0  10  20
WINK TX                    64  33  44  24  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/72

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894
FXUS64 KMAF 250519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1117 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions at some of
the terminals are expected overnight as an upper level disturbance
moves across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. TEMPO MVFR
conditions in light snow and fog is expected at KPEQ, KINK and KMAF.
Confidence was not high enough to include elsewhere. Conditions will
rapidly improve by or shortly after 12z Wednesday with clear skies
developing at all the terminals with west winds of 10 to 20 mph and
gusty developing by late morning and continuing Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

UPDATE...

Sending a forecast update this evening to increase PoPs tonight
across the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos.

Precip has increased in coverage over the southeast Permian Basin
in response to strong lift associated with the upper low now over
S NM. Reports from that area indicate some of this precip is
falling as freezing rain and light sleet. Expect this first batch
of precip to move east shortly while the next round associated
with the center of the upper low moves in from the west. Mostly
snow is expected with this overnight round as mid level temps cool.
Amounts are still expected to stay generally under 1 inch although
some locations may see more if any banding occurs. Most of the
precip should be east of the area by sunrise with much warmer
temps by afternoon!

rhluchan

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

After a brief reprieve, there is another chance for wintry
precipitation tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 10. An
upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water
vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New
Mexico and west Texas. There will be plenty of lift associated with
this system, due to an accompanying 300mb jet streak rounding the
base of the shortwave, as well as 500mb height falls on the order of
15dm to 20dm, and a coincident vort max. Model soundings indicate a
deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in
the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the
remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary
precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of
light rain. QPF is fairly light with this system, and snow
accumulations should generally be around one half inch, mainly
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos between 06Z and 12Z.
However, models indicate midlevel lapse rates on the order of
-7.5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially
provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts
substantially in a localized area. While it`s certainly something to
keep in mind, have not leaned toward more substantial snowfall, as
models still keep the QPF and accumulations low.

The system will quickly exit the area on Wednesday morning, and with
subsidence and strong west winds in its wake,  skies will clear and
any accumulated snow will melt quickly as temperatures rise through
the morning. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s
across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande
Valley. The warmup will be short-lived, however, as another cold
front moves through the region Wednesday night, and strong cold
advection in its wake will serve to once again drop temperatures
well below normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across much of
the area Thursday, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s
across southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s
far south toward the Big Bend. There is also another chance for some
snow on Thursday night and Friday, mainly across the Upper Trans
Pecos and northern Permian Basin, though currently accumulations
look to be light.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. There are a
couple more chances for some light precipitation late in the
extended, mainly rain or perhaps a wintry mix at night. However,
models deviate by late weekend/early next week, thus have maintained
the blended forecast that far out, and will fine-tune any
precipitation chances as models come into better agreement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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725
FXUS64 KMAF 250330
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
930 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.UPDATE...

Sending a forecast update this evening to increase PoPs tonight
across the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos.

Precip has increased in coverage over the southeast Permian Basin
in response to strong lift associated with the upper low now over
S NM. Reports from that area indicate some of this precip is
falling as freezing rain and light sleet. Expect this first batch
of precip to move east shortly while the next round associated
with the center of the upper low moves in from the west. Mostly
snow is expected with this overnight round as mid level temps cool.
Amounts are still expected to stay generally under 1 inch although
some locations may see more if any banding occurs. Most of the
precip should be east of the area by sunrise with much warmer
temps by afternoon!

rhluchan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
More MVFR to IFR ceilings expected overnight across the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals as another upper level storm
system moves in from the west. TEMPO or PROB30 groups for light
snow, light rain, and fog is anticipated at the majority of the
sites. Conditions will rapidly improve by or shortly after 12z
Wednesday with clear skies developing with west winds of 10 to 20
mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

After a brief reprieve, there is another chance for wintry
precipitation tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 10. An
upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water
vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New
Mexico and west Texas. There will be plenty of lift associated with
this system, due to an accompanying 300mb jet streak rounding the
base of the shortwave, as well as 500mb height falls on the order of
15dm to 20dm, and a coincident vort max. Model soundings indicate a
deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in
the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the
remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary
precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of
light rain. QPF is fairly light with this system, and snow
accumulations should generally be around one half inch, mainly
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos between 06Z and 12Z.
However, models indicate midlevel lapse rates on the order of
-7.5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially
provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts
substantially in a localized area. While it`s certainly something to
keep in mind, have not leaned toward more substantial snowfall, as
models still keep the QPF and accumulations low.

The system will quickly exit the area on Wednesday morning, and with
subsidence and strong west winds in its wake,  skies will clear and
any accumulated snow will melt quickly as temperatures rise through
the morning. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s
across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande
Valley. The warmup will be short-lived, however, as another cold
front moves through the region Wednesday night, and strong cold
advection in its wake will serve to once again drop temperatures
well below normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across much of
the area Thursday, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s
across southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s
far south toward the Big Bend. There is also another chance for some
snow on Thursday night and Friday, mainly across the Upper Trans
Pecos and northern Permian Basin, though currently accumulations
look to be light.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. There are a
couple more chances for some light precipitation late in the
extended, mainly rain or perhaps a wintry mix at night. However,
models deviate by late weekend/early next week, thus have maintained
the blended forecast that far out, and will fine-tune any
precipitation chances as models come into better agreement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  63  31  41  /  60   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              31  65  32  42  /  60  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                27  65  34  45  /  40   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  35  70  39  55  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           30  66  33  48  /  50   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          26  58  30  44  /  40   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   25  62  30  40  /  40   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   25  62  26  50  /  10   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  64  32  42  /  60   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  31  64  33  43  /  60   0   0  10
WINK TX                    32  67  34  46  /  60   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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077
FXUS64 KMAF 242318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
More MVFR to IFR ceilings expected overnight across the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals as another upper level storm
system moves in from the west. TEMPO or PROB30 groups for light
snow, light rain, and fog is anticipated at the majority of the
sites. Conditions will rapidly improve by or shortly after 12z
Wednesday with clear skies developing with west winds of 10 to 20
mph.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

After a brief reprieve, there is another chance for wintry
precipitation tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 10. An
upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water
vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New
Mexico and west Texas. There will be plenty of lift associated with
this system, due to an accompanying 300mb jet streak rounding the
base of the shortwave, as well as 500mb height falls on the order of
15dm to 20dm, and a coincident vort max. Model soundings indicate a
deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in
the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the
remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary
precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of
light rain. QPF is fairly light with this system, and snow
accumulations should generally be around one half inch, mainly
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos between 06Z and 12Z.
However, models indicate midlevel lapse rates on the order of
-7.5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially
provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts
substantially in a localized area. While it`s certainly something to
keep in mind, have not leaned toward more substantial snowfall, as
models still keep the QPF and accumulations low.

The system will quickly exit the area on Wednesday morning, and with
subsidence and strong west winds in its wake,  skies will clear and
any accumulated snow will melt quickly as temperatures rise through
the morning. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s
across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande
Valley. The warmup will be short-lived, however, as another cold
front moves through the region Wednesday night, and strong cold
advection in its wake will serve to once again drop temperatures
well below normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across much of
the area Thursday, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s
across southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s
far south toward the Big Bend. There is also another chance for some
snow on Thursday night and Friday, mainly across the Upper Trans
Pecos and northern Permian Basin, though currently accumulations
look to be light.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. There are a
couple more chances for some light precipitation late in the
extended, mainly rain or perhaps a wintry mix at night. However,
models deviate by late weekend/early next week, thus have maintained
the blended forecast that far out, and will fine-tune any
precipitation chances as models come into better agreement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  63  31  41  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              31  65  32  42  /  50  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                27  65  34  45  /  40   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  35  70  39  55  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  66  33  48  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          26  58  30  44  /  40   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   25  62  30  40  /  20   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   25  62  26  50  /  10   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  64  32  42  /  40   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  31  64  33  43  /  40   0   0  10
WINK TX                    32  67  34  46  /  30   0   0  10

&&



.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$



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326
FXUS64 KMAF 242119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

After a brief reprieve, there is another chance for wintry
precipitation tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 10. An
upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water
vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New
Mexico and west Texas. There will be plenty of lift associated with
this system, due to an accompanying 300mb jet streak rounding the
base of the shortwave, as well as 500mb height falls on the order of
15dm to 20dm, and a coincident vort max. Model soundings indicate a
deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in
the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the
remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary
precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of
light rain. QPF is fairly light with this system, and snow
accumulations should generally be around one half inch, mainly
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos between 06Z and 12Z.
However, models indicate midlevel lapse rates on the order of
-7.5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially
provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts
substantially in a localized area. While it`s certainly something to
keep in mind, have not leaned toward more substantial snowfall, as
models still keep the QPF and accumulations low.

The system will quickly exit the area on Wednesday morning, and with
subsidence and strong west winds in its wake,  skies will clear and
any accumulated snow will melt quickly as temperatures rise through
the morning. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s
across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande
Valley. The warmup will be short-lived, however, as another cold
front moves through the region Wednesday night, and strong cold
advection in its wake will serve to once again drop temperatures
well below normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across much of
the area Thursday, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s
across southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s
far south toward the Big Bend. There is also another chance for some
snow on Thursday night and Friday, mainly across the Upper Trans
Pecos and northern Permian Basin, though currently accumulations
look to be light.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. There are a
couple more chances for some light precipitation late in the
extended, mainly rain or perhaps a wintry mix at night. However,
models deviate by late weekend/early next week, thus have maintained
the blended forecast that far out, and will fine-tune any
precipitation chances as models come into better agreement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 29  63  31  41  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              31  65  32  42  /  50  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                27  65  34  45  /  40   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  35  70  39  55  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           34  66  33  48  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          26  58  30  44  /  40   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   25  62  30  40  /  20   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   25  62  26  50  /  10   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    30  64  32  42  /  40   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  31  64  33  43  /  40   0   0  10
WINK TX                    32  67  34  46  /  30   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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320
FXUS64 KMAF 241715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1115 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Conditions slowly continue to improve most terminals, w/models
suggesting brief periods of VFR cigs/visibilities this afternoon.
An upper trough over AZ will open, shear, and pss thru West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico overnight, bringing a brief shot of
precipitation all terminals. Forecast soundings bring VLIFR
cigs/visibilities to KMAF/KHOB as -SHSN moves thru, while IFR
conditions look to develop KCNM as -SHSN moves thru there. KINK
and KFST could see IFR conditions as well, but remain warm enough
for -SHRA. KPEQ may see -SHRA as well, but remain VFR. A scouring
west wind behind the departing trough will scatter out skies to
VFR by 15Z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area during the morning
hours and mostly clear out by the afternoon.  Winds will be light
and variable this morning.  A cold front is expected to move into
the area late this afternoon/early this evening with northerly winds
behind it.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings/visibilities
tonight for most of the terminals.  There is also a slight chance of
light freezing rain tonight for CNM and MAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today
and will pass across the area overnight.  A broad upper trough will
swing down across the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong upper trough will work down the West Coast Friday and
Saturday and start approaching the area by early next week.  All
this adds up to unsettled wx for the region into next week.

Have some light radar returns this morning north of the area over
Eastern NM that should be associated with a shear axis attached to
the AZ low.  This axis is expected to lift northward taking those
echos/light precip away from the area.  As of 10z have no precip
falling across the area and none expected this morning so will
cancel the Winter Weather Advisory with package issuance.  Will
issue a SPS and mention possibility of some slick roads remaining
into the morning.  Across the Midland/Odessa area most roads are
dry as yesterdays precipitation has sublimated.

Light wind this morning will not have time to come around to the
south today before another boundary moves through and shifts it back
to the north.  There is a question of how much sunshine will be seen
today as various guidance keeps the area broken to overcast all
day... but model RH at the different levels not showing that much
cloud cover present.  Early this morning low clouds not showing up
well on satellite but observations indicate stratus covers most of
the area with high clouds across northern CWA.  Believe today will
start out cloudy and should lose the low clouds during the day with
some sunshine expected by afternoon.  Yesterday MAF set a daily
record min max with a high of 24... smashing the old record of 40
degrees from 2010.  Will be staying toward the cold side of guidance
again today with highs expected to make into the 40s north of the
Pecos river with 50s and 60s south of it.  Wednesday still looks
like the warm day of the week as a south wind returns with highs in
the 60s becoming widespread.  Another cold front will blow into the
area late Wednesday/early Thursday with north wind quickly
returning.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday with more 30s across
the north on Friday.  Temperatures recover over the weekend with 70s
becoming widespread by Sunday.

The approaching low may produce some showers late this afternoon or
evening over SE NM then spread across the area tonight.  Some of
this precip tonight may change over to a rain/freezing rain mix
mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.  Pops too low to issue any
kind of winter wx product but will mention in HWO.  Could see some
light snow drift down into the northern CWA late Thursday/early
Friday with precip of rain during the day and mixed precip overnight
continuing through the weekend.  Currently have multiple periods of
low pops/low confidence so will not get too excited about any
particular day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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404
FXUS64 KMAF 241137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area during the morning
hours and mostly clear out by the afternoon.  Winds will be light
and variable this morning.  A cold front is expected to move into
the area late this afternoon/early this evening with northerly winds
behind it.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings/visibilities
tonight for most of the terminals.  There is also a slight chance of
light freezing rain tonight for CNM and MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today
and will pass across the area overnight.  A broad upper trough will
swing down across the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong upper trough will work down the West Coast Friday and
Saturday and start approaching the area by early next week.  All
this adds up to unsettled wx for the region into next week.

Have some light radar returns this morning north of the area over
Eastern NM that should be associated with a shear axis attached to
the AZ low.  This axis is expected to lift northward taking those
echos/light precip away from the area.  As of 10z have no precip
falling across the area and none expected this morning so will
cancel the Winter Weather Advisory with package issuance.  Will
issue a SPS and mention possibility of some slick roads remaining
into the morning.  Across the Midland/Odessa area most roads are
dry as yesterdays precipitation has sublimated.

Light wind this morning will not have time to come around to the
south today before another boundary moves through and shifts it back
to the north.  There is a question of how much sunshine will be seen
today as various guidance keeps the area broken to overcast all
day... but model RH at the different levels not showing that much
cloud cover present.  Early this morning low clouds not showing up
well on satellite but observations indicate stratus covers most of
the area with high clouds across northern CWA.  Believe today will
start out cloudy and should lose the low clouds during the day with
some sunshine expected by afternoon.  Yesterday MAF set a daily
record min max with a high of 24... smashing the old record of 40
degrees from 2010.  Will be staying toward the cold side of guidance
again today with highs expected to make into the 40s north of the
Pecos river with 50s and 60s south of it.  Wednesday still looks
like the warm day of the week as a south wind returns with highs in
the 60s becoming widespread.  Another cold front will blow into the
area late Wednesday/early Thursday with north wind quickly
returning.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday with more 30s across
the north on Friday.  Temperatures recover over the weekend with 70s
becoming widespread by Sunday.

The approaching low may produce some showers late this afternoon or
evening over SE NM then spread across the area tonight.  Some of
this precip tonight may change over to a rain/freezing rain mix
mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.  Pops too low to issue any
kind of winter wx product but will mention in HWO.  Could see some
light snow drift down into the northern CWA late Thursday/early
Friday with precip of rain during the day and mixed precip overnight
continuing through the weekend.  Currently have multiple periods of
low pops/low confidence so will not get too excited about any
particular day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 241017
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today
and will pass across the area overnight.  A broad upper trough will
swing down across the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong upper trough will work down the West Coast Friday and
Saturday and start approaching the area by early next week.  All
this adds up to unsettled wx for the region into next week.

Have some light radar returns this morning north of the area over
Eastern NM that should be associated with a shear axis attached to
the AZ low.  This axis is expected to lift northward taking those
echos/light precip away from the area.  As of 10z have no precip
falling across the area and none expected this morning so will
cancel the Winter Weather Advisory with package issuance.  Will
issue a SPS and mention possibility of some slick roads remaining
into the morning.  Across the Midland/Odessa area most roads are
dry as yesterdays precipitation has sublimated.

Light wind this morning will not have time to come around to the
south today before another boundary moves through and shifts it back
to the north.  There is a question of how much sunshine will be seen
today as various guidance keeps the area broken to overcast all
day... but model RH at the different levels not showing that much
cloud cover present.  Early this morning low clouds not showing up
well on satellite but observations indicate stratus covers most of
the area with high clouds across northern CWA.  Believe today will
start out cloudy and should lose the low clouds during the day with
some sunshine expected by afternoon.  Yesterday MAF set a daily
record min max with a high of 24... smashing the old record of 40
degrees from 2010.  Will be staying toward the cold side of guidance
again today with highs expected to make into the 40s north of the
Pecos river with 50s and 60s south of it.  Wednesday still looks
like the warm day of the week as a south wind returns with highs in
the 60s becoming widespread.  Another cold front will blow into the
area late Wednesday/early Thursday with north wind quickly
returning.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday with more 30s across
the north on Friday.  Temperatures recover over the weekend with 70s
becoming widespread by Sunday.

The approaching low may produce some showers late this afternoon or
evening over SE NM then spread across the area tonight.  Some of
this precip tonight may change over to a rain/freezing rain mix
mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.  Pops too low to issue any
kind of winter wx product but will mention in HWO.  Could see some
light snow drift down into the northern CWA late Thursday/early
Friday with precip of rain during the day and mixed precip overnight
continuing through the weekend.  Currently have multiple periods of
low pops/low confidence so will not get too excited about any
particular day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  28  65  32  /  10  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  30  66  32  /  10  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  27  67  33  /  10  30   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  33  71  40  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  33  67  33  /  10  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  25  59  30  /  10  40   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  27  64  30  /  10  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  27  63  29  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  29  66  33  /  10  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  29  66  34  /  10  20   0   0
WINK TX                    48  30  68  34  /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/72

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557
FXUS64 KMAF 240449
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The first 12 hours of the TAF are pretty much a persistence
forecast. There may be some lower CIG/VIS near sunrise with the
potential for freezing fog to develop, but do not have enough
confidence to place in the TAFs. VFR conditions expected most
locations by 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
IR imagery shows warming cloud tops as deeper moisture moves east in
zonal flow aloft.  At the sfc...temps have budged little all day,
and remain well blo freezing except areas far south.  Main problems
today had been slippery roadways from -FZRA/DL overnight, w/numerous
accidents, rollovers, and even a few fatalities.  Ice accumulations
ranged as high as 1/4" in the NE, to lesser amounts
elsewhere.

While precip has largely ended, most of the area will remain mired
in the soup overnight, w/areas of -FZDL.  Plenty of black ice
remains, temps are not anticipated to budge overnight, and
w/accidents ongoing, we have opted to downgrade the warning to an
advisory, and extended the advisories thru until 18Z Tuesday, after
which temps will climb abv freezing.

Temps will continue warming thru Wednesday, but top out Wednesday
afternoon blo normal.  Meanwhile, the upper closed low over central
CA is forecast to open, begin shearing, and move east thru West
Texas/SE NM Tuesday night, affording a slight chance of -SHRA
Tuesday evening.  The Wrn Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin could
see a changeover to -FZRA after midnight as precip exits east...but
QPF looks light.  Wednesday night, a cold front will move thru the
region, w/isentropic upglide commencing over the NE zones Thursday
night.  ECMWF forecast soundings saturate the column far enough up
for a chance of SN Thursday night thru Friday night, esp NE zones.
Temps warm into the weekend, climbing abv normal Sunday.  An
approaching upper trough and SW flow aloft will re-introduce a
chance of SHRA Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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814
FXUS64 KMAF 232328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue through at least 12Z all
TAF sites. Conditions will improve to VFR 12-18Z Tuesday. Though
not indicated in most TAFs (CNM the exception), a light freezing
drizzle or snow is possible overnight but is not expected to leave
much if any additional ice. The biggest ice concern will be any
remaining on the ground from earlier in the day that has not
melted.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
IR imagery shows warming cloud tops as deeper moisture moves east in
zonal flow aloft.  At the sfc...temps have budged little all day,
and remain well blo freezing except areas far south.  Main problems
today had been slippery roadways from -FZRA/DL overnight, w/numerous
accidents, rollovers, and even a few fatalities.  Ice accumulations
ranged as high as 1/4" in the NE, to lesser amounts
elsewhere.

While precip has largely ended, most of the area will remain mired
in the soup overnight, w/areas of -FZDL.  Plenty of black ice
remains, temps are not anticipated to budge overnight, and
w/accidents ongoing, we have opted to downgrade the warning to an
advisory, and extended the advisories thru until 18Z Tuesday, after
which temps will climb abv freezing.

Temps will continue warming thru Wednesday, but top out Wednesday
afternoon blo normal.  Meanwhile, the upper closed low over central
CA is forecast to open, begin shearing, and move east thru West
Texas/SE NM Tuesday night, affording a slight chance of -SHRA
Tuesday evening.  The Wrn Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin could
see a changeover to -FZRA after midnight as precip exits east...but
QPF looks light.  Wednesday night, a cold front will move thru the
region, w/isentropic upglide commencing over the NE zones Thursday
night.  ECMWF forecast soundings saturate the column far enough up
for a chance of SN Thursday night thru Friday night, esp NE zones.
Temps warm into the weekend, climbing abv normal Sunday.  An
approaching upper trough and SW flow aloft will re-introduce a
chance of SHRA Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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008
FXUS64 KMAF 232055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
IR imagery shows warming cloud tops as deeper moisture moves east in
zonal flow aloft.  At the sfc...temps have budged little all day,
and remain well blo freezing except areas far south.  Main problems
today had been slippery roadways from -FZRA/DL overnight, w/numerous
accidents, rollovers, and even a few fatalities.  Ice accumulations
ranged as high as 1/4" in the NE, to lesser amounts
elsewhere.

While precip has largely ended, most of the area will remain mired
in the soup overnight, w/areas of -FZDL.  Plenty of black ice
remains, temps are not anticipated to budge overnight, and
w/accidents ongoing, we have opted to downgrade the warning to an
advisory, and extended the advisories thru until 18Z Tuesday, after
which temps will climb abv freezing.

Temps will continue warming thru Wednesday, but top out Wednesday
afternoon blo normal.  Meanwhile, the upper closed low over central
CA is forecast to open, begin shearing, and move east thru West
Texas/SE NM Tuesday night, affording a slight chance of -SHRA
Tuesday evening.  The Wrn Low Rolling Plains and Permian Basin could
see a changeover to -FZRA after midnight as precip exits east...but
QPF looks light.  Wednesday night, a cold front will move thru the
region, w/isentropic upglide commencing over the NE zones Thursday
night.  ECMWF forecast soundings saturate the column far enough up
for a chance of SN Thursday night thru Friday night, esp NE zones.
Temps warm into the weekend, climbing abv normal Sunday.  An
approaching upper trough and SW flow aloft will re-introduce a
chance of SHRA Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  47  30  64  /  10  10  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              23  47  33  65  /  10  10  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                24  47  26  66  /  10  10  30   0
DRYDEN TX                  32  52  34  69  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           24  54  32  64  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          21  46  27  57  /  10  10  40   0
HOBBS NM                   19  48  27  58  /  10  10  20   0
MARFA TX                   24  64  29  61  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    22  48  31  61  /  10  10  20   0
ODESSA TX                  22  49  31  64  /  10  10  20   0
WINK TX                    22  52  32  66  /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

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278
FXUS64 KMAF 231805
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering pockets of light snow and freezing drizzle continue
across parts of the area, expected to taper off and shift east
late this afternoon. While IFR ceilings have held on at several
area terminals, an improvement to low-end MVFR is expected at all
TAF sites by 20-22Z as precipitation comes to an end. There is a
chance for some terminals to see a return of IFR ceilings
overnight, and thus have included a TEMPO IFR at KMAF from 10Z-14Z
where confidence is greatest, though addition of IFR ceilings may
be needed later at other TAF sites. Otherwise, northeast winds will
diminish slightly and veer more to the east through the forecast
period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

99

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 231805
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lingering pockets of light snow and freezing drizzle continue
across parts of the area, expected to taper off and shift east
late this afternoon. While IFR ceilings have held on at several
area terminals, an improvement to low-end MVFR is expected at all
TAF sites by 20-22Z as precipitation comes to an end. There is a
chance for some terminals to see a return of IFR ceilings
overnight, and thus have included a TEMPO IFR at KMAF from 10Z-14Z
where confidence is greatest, though addition of IFR ceilings may
be needed later at other TAF sites. Otherwise, northeast winds will
diminish slightly and veer more to the east through the forecast
period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

99

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599
FXUS64 KMAF 231149
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for this TAF cycle will be wintry precip
affecting terminals through the morning and low cigs persisting much
of the day. Light radar returns indicating freezing drizzle
affecting all TX terminals except for PEQ early this morning. In
addition, a series of light freezing rain/sleet and/or snow showers
look to intermittently be affecting HOB and CNM. Will continue to
advertise light wintry precip through mid-day. Currently have
IFR cigs across the board with areas of MVFR vsbys. Ceilings may
lift to MVFR at some point early afternoon but confidence is low on
timing so adjustments may be need. Also, could see IFR cigs return
later tonight/early Tuesday morning but will hold off on dropping
cigs for now until confidence increases. Otherwise, NE winds will
continue to diminish and veer to the east through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

27

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733
FXUS64 KMAF 231003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough over CA/NV this morning will help produce
another round of wintry precipitation across the area this morning as
southwest flow aloft carries ample moisture over very cold air at
the surface.  A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for most
of the region today with a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the
North and Northeast Permian Basin.  This low will quickly move east
arriving in the area late Tuesday and passing across the region
early Wednesday.  After it passes a broad trough will remain across
the center of the country before flattening off toward the weekend.
The next upper trough works down the West Coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front blew through on Sunday bringing very cold wx to
the region.  Temperatures have fallen steadily since then.  Light
wintry precipitation has developed this morning over much of the area.
Currently radar indicates the heaviest precipitation over the
Northeast Permian Basin which should be a mix of freezing rain and
sleet.  Model qpf freezing rain sleet Meso Eta/GFS still hits NE
Permian Basin hard between 09-12z same as it showed last night...
this is the area with best isentropic lift.  This is the area included
in a Winter Storm Warning.  Radar having some trouble picking up the
light precip and reports indicate light freezing drizzle may be much
more widespread. This precip will continue through the morning...
could see some light snow mixed in mainly across Southeast New
Mexico.  With temperatures in the teens and 20s anything that falls
will quickly stick to all exposed surface.  Bridges and overpasses
will be the first to ice over and expecting difficult driving
conditions this morning.  Will continue the High Wind Warning
in effect for GDP until 6am MST as latest observation was still
over 40 mph.  Precip should taper off during the afternoon.

As far as temperatures it will be a very cold day today with wind
chill factors making it even colder for those having to be outside.
Will stay on the cold side of guidance with highs in the 20s for the
Permian Basin... into the lower 30s for the Trans Pecos... with only
locations closer to the Rio Grande getting above freezing.
Temperatures begin to recover Tuesday as a surface ridge slides east
and south wind begins to return.  Should make it back into the 60s
on Wednesday as wind comes around to the west.  However A secondary
upper trough will move down across the Rockies early Thursday and
push another cold front through the region returning the area to
unusually cold wx.  Highs in the 30s Thursday and Friday as a cold
February winds down.  By next weekend the readings should make it
back into the 60s as roller coaster of temps continue.

Could see a little light rain move down into the SE NM plains late
Tuesday night with the arrival of the upper low.  Otherwise the next
shot of precip will be Thursday through Saturday... could have some
more wintry precip mixed in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 27  21  43  29  /  60   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              25  21  44  29  /  60   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                29  22  49  29  /  60   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  36  30  51  38  /  50   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  25  50  35  /  50   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          27  22  51  30  /  50   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   27  21  44  27  /  60   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  23  62  27  /  50   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    26  22  45  30  /  50   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  28  21  45  31  /  50   0  10  10
WINK TX                    32  24  48  30  /  50   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

27/72

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213
FXUS64 KMAF 230538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015


.AVIATION...
Difficult flying conditions will continue through Monday. IFR to
occasionally LIFR cigs and vsbys will be the rule into the morning
before low clouds slowly lift by afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet
are expected to develop within the next few hours across the area.
Precipitation is expected to taper off by late morning with freezing
drizzle possible into the afternoon. Strong northeast winds will
also subside through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

UPDATE...

This is a quick update to lower temperatures tonight a few
degrees. This will likely take wind chill values to near zero
across northern parts of the Permian Basin by morning. Have also
increased PoPs across the region for overnight into the morning
hours as confidence continues to increase in the next round of
wintry precip headed our way. Models show precip becoming
widespread just after midnight and moving off to the northeast.
Ice accumulations in the grids still look on track with near a
quarter inch of freezing rain possible across the Western Low
Rolling Plains with less as you head southwest.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward
as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft
over the region.  At the sfc, analysis shows that the front has made
it almost to KPRS, w/5mb/3 hr pressure rises noted near KINK.
Gradient should remain sufficient enough for gap winds at KGDP
overnight, and a High Wind Warning covers this.  Isentropic upglide
has commenced, and is expected to increase flow just abv the front
continues veering to the south.  KMAF radar is showing modest echoes
for winter precip...but is overshooting most of it.  KATS, KCNM, and
KHOB have all reported -SN over the past couple of hours.  However,
IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the
area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper
column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of
the dendritic growth zones.  Instead, forecast soundings all point to
mainly a FZRA event, w/FZRA extending to south of K6R6 by 12Z
Monday.  Over the north central zones the coldest intrusion is
expected overnight, w/NAM H85 temps of -10 to -12C dipping into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  This will favoring more of a FZRA/IP mix.
From 12-18Z Monday, a little SN might even develop into Lea County.
However, total snow accumulations are expected to be less than an
inch.  More problematic will be ice.  QPFs have not changed much
over the past 24 hours, so the Winter Wx Advisory won`t need
expanding.  However, a few counties in the upper Colorado River
Valley could see storm total ice accumulations exceeding 1/4", so we
will upgrade those to a warning for this issuance.  Regardless, any
ice accumulations will be hazardous, especially for Monday morning
commuters.  Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where
they should remain blo freezing.  Thus, even though precip is
expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy
surfaces will linger.  For this reason, we will extend the
advisories/warnings thru 00Z Tuesday.  Later shifts may have to
extend it even further, as areas NE won`t climb abv freezing until
Tuesday.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will open, shear, and begin moving
east Monday night, and move thru West Texas/SE NM Tuesday night.
Temps will warm thru midweek, topping out just blo normal Wednesday
afternoon.  A cold front will move thru the area Thursday, bringing
resulting in another shot of winter precip Thursday night/Friday,
before temperatures warm back to abv normal by
Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

27

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011
FXUS64 KMAF 230249
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
849 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.UPDATE...

This is a quick update to lower temperatures tonight a few
degrees. This will likely take wind chill values to near zero
across northern parts of the Permian Basin by morning. Have also
increased PoPs across the region for overnight into the morning
hours as confidence continues to increase in the next round of
wintry precip headed our way. Models show precip becoming
widespread just after midnight and moving off to the northeast.
Ice accumulations in the grids still look on track with near a
quarter inch of freezing rain possible across the Western Low
Rolling Plains with less as you head southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail along with periods of light
freezing rain and sleet. Any precipitation will taper off by Monday
afternoon and low clouds may lift slightly. Strong northeast winds
will also continue through the night and slow subside by Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward
as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft
over the region.  At the sfc, analysis shows that the front has made
it almost to KPRS, w/5mb/3 hr pressure rises noted near KINK.
Gradient should remain sufficient enough for gap winds at KGDP
overnight, and a High Wind Warning covers this.  Isentropic upglide
has commenced, and is expected to increase flow just abv the front
continues veering to the south.  KMAF radar is showing modest echoes
for winter precip...but is overshooting most of it.  KATS, KCNM, and
KHOB have all reported -SN over the past couple of hours.  However,
IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the
area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper
column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of
the dendritic growth zones.  Instead, forecast soundings all point to
mainly a FZRA event, w/FZRA extending to south of K6R6 by 12Z
Monday.  Over the north central zones the coldest intrusion is
expected overnight, w/NAM H85 temps of -10 to -12C dipping into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  This will favoring more of a FZRA/IP mix.
From 12-18Z Monday, a little SN might even develop into Lea County.
However, total snow accumulations are expected to be less than an
inch.  More problematic will be ice.  QPFs have not changed much
over the past 24 hours, so the Winter Wx Advisory won`t need
expanding.  However, a few counties in the upper Colorado River
Valley could see storm total ice accumulations exceeding 1/4", so we
will upgrade those to a warning for this issuance.  Regardless, any
ice accumulations will be hazardous, especially for Monday morning
commuters.  Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where
they should remain blo freezing.  Thus, even though precip is
expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy
surfaces will linger.  For this reason, we will extend the
advisories/warnings thru 00Z Tuesday.  Later shifts may have to
extend it even further, as areas NE won`t climb abv freezing until
Tuesday.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will open, shear, and begin moving
east Monday night, and move thru West Texas/SE NM Tuesday night.
Temps will warm thru midweek, topping out just blo normal Wednesday
afternoon.  A cold front will move thru the area Thursday, bringing
resulting in another shot of winter precip Thursday night/Friday,
before temperatures warm back to abv normal by
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 20  27  22  42  /  90  60   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              21  26  24  44  /  90  60   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                23  32  25  49  /  70  60   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  34  40  35  52  /  70  50   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           26  32  30  52  /  70  50   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          19  31  25  53  /  60  50   0  10
HOBBS NM                   19  29  22  45  /  80  60   0  10
MARFA TX                   24  40  26  65  /  60  50   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    21  26  25  47  /  90  50   0  10
ODESSA TX                  21  30  24  47  /  80  50   0  10
WINK TX                    25  35  27  50  /  70  50   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

29/99

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504
FXUS64 KMAF 222317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
517 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail along with periods of light
freezing rain and sleet. Any precipitation will taper off by Monday
afternoon and low clouds may lift slightly. Strong northeast winds
will also continue through the night and slow subside by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward
as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft
over the region.  At the sfc, analysis shows that the front has made
it almost to KPRS, w/5mb/3 hr pressure rises noted near KINK.
Gradient should remain sufficient enough for gap winds at KGDP
overnight, and a High Wind Warning covers this.  Isentropic upglide
has commenced, and is expected to increase flow just abv the front
continues veering to the south.  KMAF radar is showing modest echoes
for winter precip...but is overshooting most of it.  KATS, KCNM, and
KHOB have all reported -SN over the past couple of hours.  However,
IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the
area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper
column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of
the dendritic growth zones.  Instead, forecast soundings all point to
mainly a FZRA event, w/FZRA extending to south of K6R6 by 12Z
Monday.  Over the north central zones the coldest intrusion is
expected overnight, w/NAM H85 temps of -10 to -12C dipping into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  This will favoring more of a FZRA/IP mix.
From 12-18Z Monday, a little SN might even develop into Lea County.
However, total snow accumulations are expected to be less than an
inch.  More problematic will be ice.  QPFs have not changed much
over the past 24 hours, so the Winter Wx Advisory won`t need
expanding.  However, a few counties in the upper Colorado River
Valley could see storm total ice accumulations exceeding 1/4", so we
will upgrade those to a warning for this issuance.  Regardless, any
ice accumulations will be hazardous, especially for Monday morning
commuters.  Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where
they should remain blo freezing.  Thus, even though precip is
expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy
surfaces will linger.  For this reason, we will extend the
advisories/warnings thru 00Z Tuesday.  Later shifts may have to
extend it even further, as areas NE won`t climb abv freezing until
Tuesday.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will open, shear, and begin moving
east Monday night, and move thru West Texas/SE NM Tuesday night.
Temps will warm thru midweek, topping out just blo normal Wednesday
afternoon.  A cold front will move thru the area Thursday, bringing
resulting in another shot of winter precip Thursday night/Friday,
before temperatures warm back to abv normal by
Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

29

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707
FXUS64 KMAF 222100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Busy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, weatherwise.
WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has amplified westward
as advertised, and sits over central CA, resulting in SW flow aloft
over the region.  At the sfc, analysis shows that the front has made
it almost to KPRS, w/5mb/3 hr pressure rises noted near KINK.
Gradient should remain sufficient enough for gap winds at KGDP
overnight, and a High Wind Warning covers this.  Isentropic upglide
has commenced, and is expected to increase flow just abv the front
continues veering to the south.  KMAF radar is showing modest echoes
for winter precip...but is overshooting most of it.  KATS, KCNM, and
KHOB have all reported -SN over the past couple of hours.  However,
IR imagery shows the higher, colder clouds moving NE out of the
area, which jives w/NAM forecast soundings, which dry out the upper
column somewhat over the next few hours, taking saturation out of
the dendritic growth zones.  Instead, forecast soundings all point to
mainly a FZRA event, w/FZRA extending to south of K6R6 by 12Z
Monday.  Over the north central zones the coldest intrusion is
expected overnight, w/NAM H85 temps of -10 to -12C dipping into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  This will favoring more of a FZRA/IP mix.
From 12-18Z Monday, a little SN might even develop into Lea County.
However, total snow accumulations are expected to be less than an
inch.  More problematic will be ice.  QPFs have not changed much
over the past 24 hours, so the Winter Wx Advisory won`t need
expanding.  However, a few counties in the upper Colorado River
Valley could see storm total ice accumulations exceeding 1/4", so we
will upgrade those to a warning for this issuance.  Regardless, any
ice accumulations will be hazardous, especially for Monday morning
commuters.  Temps will not warm much Monday, especially NE, where
they should remain blo freezing.  Thus, even though precip is
expected to taper to drizzle/freezing drizzle Monday afternoon, icy
surfaces will linger.  For this reason, we will extend the
advisories/warnings thru 00Z Tuesday.  Later shifts may have to
extend it even further, as areas NE won`t climb abv freezing until
Tuesday.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will open, shear, and begin moving
east Monday night, and move thru West Texas/SE NM Tuesday night.
Temps will warm thru midweek, topping out just blo normal Wednesday
afternoon.  A cold front will move thru the area Thursday, bringing
resulting in another shot of winter precip Thursday night/Friday,
before temperatures warm back to abv normal by
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 23  27  22  42  /  50  30   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              25  26  24  44  /  60  40   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                26  32  25  49  /  30  30   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  37  40  35  52  /  40  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           30  32  30  52  /  40  20   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          22  31  25  53  /  30  30   0  10
HOBBS NM                   23  29  22  45  /  50  30   0  10
MARFA TX                   26  40  26  65  /  10  20   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    24  26  25  47  /  50  30   0  10
ODESSA TX                  23  30  24  47  /  50  30   0  10
WINK TX                    29  35  27  50  /  40  30   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

84/44

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298
FXUS64 KMAF 221750
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Northeast winds, gusty at times, will continue through the
forecast period as very cold air continues to filter in to the
region. Light rain overspreading the area this afternoon will
gradually change over to FZRA/FZDZ this evening as temperatures
drop. Some sleet may mix in at times, with greater confidence at
KFST, though freezing rain will be dominant. While ceilings are a
mix of MVFR and some IFR this afternoon, expect IFR to be the rule
from tonight onward, with LIFR possible, especially in any areas
of moderate rainfall overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package will be the increasing
potential for wintry precip tonight and Monday across much of
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect from tonight through Monday morning for SE NM and
much of W TX. Additionally, a tight surface pressure gradient,
associated with the approaching front, will result in strong NE
winds funneling through Guadalupe Pass overnight tonight. This will
likely result in difficult driving conditions particularly for high
profile vehicles and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning for this location.

Currently have SW flow developing aloft as an upper trough digs
south toward the SW ConUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a surge of cold
air continues to spill southward this morning and is expected to
result in falling temperatures throughout the day. Once this colder
air begins to filter in, isentropic upglide will be on the increase
with light precip spreading across much of the region this
afternoon. Precip chances will continue through much of Monday with
the highest chances generally NE of the Pecos River. Precip type
will initially begin as all rain most places today however far
northern zones could see some sleet mixed in later this afternoon
before 00Z (6pm CST). As the colder air advances southward
overnight, forecast model soundings continue to support rain
changing over to freezing rain and/or sleet for all but the far
southern zones by midnight tonight. For northern Lea County, think
its possible for a snow/sleet mix rather than freezing rain. All of
this, of course, is all dependent on timing of the colder air
tonight therefore onset of wintry precip is subject to change.

Best ice accumulations remain NE of the Pecos River, particularly
across the Permian Basin, with up to 0.20 inches possible. Northern
Lea Co could receive up to an inch of snow/sleet before precip
diminishes from west to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest
impacts look to occur from 06-15Z Monday which is concerning given
it would affect the Monday morning commute. If impacts look to
worsen or if higher accumulations are anticipated then the
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid/upper 20s
northeast to the 40s southwest. A warming trend is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday however the next cold front is progged to arrive
Thursday morning, bringing colder temperatures back to the region
heading into next weekend. In addition, could see the return of
wintry precip during this time as a couple of upper shortwaves
traverse the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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590
FXUS64 KMAF 221132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
532 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have an E wind at all TAF sites and this should become gusty out
of the NE by late morning as a front builds southward into the region.
Expect low clouds to move into the area with MVFR cigs.  Vsbys should
fall also as rain develops today and changes over to freezing rain and
sleet tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package will be the increasing
potential for wintry precip tonight and Monday across much of
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect from tonight through Monday morning for SE NM and
much of W TX. Additionally, a tight surface pressure gradient,
associated with the approaching front, will result in strong NE
winds funneling through Guadalupe Pass overnight tonight. This will
likely result in difficult driving conditions particularly for high
profile vehicles and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning for this location.

Currently have SW flow developing aloft as an upper trough digs
south toward the SW ConUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a surge of cold
air continues to spill southward this morning and is expected to
result in falling temperatures throughout the day. Once this colder
air begins to filter in, isentropic upglide will be on the increase
with light precip spreading across much of the region this
afternoon. Precip chances will continue through much of Monday with
the highest chances generally NE of the Pecos River. Precip type
will initially begin as all rain most places today however far
northern zones could see some sleet mixed in later this afternoon
before 00Z (6pm CST). As the colder air advances southward
overnight, forecast model soundings continue to support rain
changing over to freezing rain and/or sleet for all but the far
southern zones by midnight tonight. For northern Lea County, think
its possible for a snow/sleet mix rather than freezing rain. All of
this, of course, is all dependent on timing of the colder air
tonight therefore onset of wintry precip is subject to change.

Best ice accumulations remain NE of the Pecos River, particularly
across the Permian Basin, with up to 0.20 inches possible. Northern
Lea Co could receive up to an inch of snow/sleet before precip
diminishes from west to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest
impacts look to occur from 06-15Z Monday which is concerning given
it would affect the Monday morning commute. If impacts look to
worsen or if higher accumulations are anticipated then the
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid/upper 20s
northeast to the 40s southwest. A warming trend is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday however the next cold front is progged to arrive
Thursday morning, bringing colder temperatures back to the region
heading into next weekend. In addition, could see the return of
wintry precip during this time as a couple of upper shortwaves
traverse the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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757
FXUS64 KMAF 221009
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package will be the increasing
potential for wintry precip tonight and Monday across much of
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect from tonight through Monday morning for SE NM and
much of W TX. Additionally, a tight surface pressure gradient,
associated with the approaching front, will result in strong NE
winds funneling through Guadalupe Pass overnight tonight. This will
likely result in difficult driving conditions particularly for high
profile vehicles and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High
Wind Warning for this location.

Currently have SW flow developing aloft as an upper trough digs
south toward the SW ConUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a surge of cold
air continues to spill southward this morning and is expected to
result in falling temperatures throughout the day. Once this colder
air begins to filter in, isentropic upglide will be on the increase
with light precip spreading across much of the region this
afternoon. Precip chances will continue through much of Monday with
the highest chances generally NE of the Pecos River. Precip type
will initially begin as all rain most places today however far
northern zones could see some sleet mixed in later this afternoon
before 00Z (6pm CST). As the colder air advances southward
overnight, forecast model soundings continue to support rain
changing over to freezing rain and/or sleet for all but the far
southern zones by midnight tonight. For northern Lea County, think
its possible for a snow/sleet mix rather than freezing rain. All of
this, of course, is all dependent on timing of the colder air
tonight therefore onset of wintry precip is subject to change.

Best ice accumulations remain NE of the Pecos River, particularly
across the Permian Basin, with up to 0.20 inches possible. Northern
Lea Co could receive up to an inch of snow/sleet before precip
diminishes from west to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest
impacts look to occur from 06-15Z Monday which is concerning given
it would affect the Monday morning commute. If impacts look to
worsen or if higher accumulations are anticipated then the
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid/upper 20s
northeast to the 40s southwest. A warming trend is expected Tuesday
and Wednesday however the next cold front is progged to arrive
Thursday morning, bringing colder temperatures back to the region
heading into next weekend. In addition, could see the return of
wintry precip during this time as a couple of upper shortwaves
traverse the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  22  27  22  /  60  70  50  10
BIG SPRING TX              42  22  27  23  /  70  70  60  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  25  33  26  /  50  50  40  10
DRYDEN TX                  67  33  36  31  /  30  50  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  26  34  28  /  30  60  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  22  32  25  /  40  50  30  10
HOBBS NM                   42  21  29  22  /  50  60  50  10
MARFA TX                   68  30  44  27  /  20  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    45  23  27  23  /  50  60  50  10
ODESSA TX                  44  23  28  24  /  50  60  50  10
WINK TX                    54  26  33  26  /  40  60  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy
     County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
     Noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/27

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008
FXUS64 KMAF 220521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail most of the night with increasing mid
clouds. A strong cold front will arrive around sunrise bringing
brisk northeasterly winds most of the day. Low clouds will also
develop with MVFR and IFR cigs likely by afternoon. Fog and light
rain will also bring down vsbys by late morning. The rain will
eventually change over to freezing rain after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show very widespread precipitation beginning
Sunday and continuing into Monday morning before diminishing
Monday afternoon. This is due to a isentropic lift over a very
cold airmass that will be moving in behind a cold front Sunday
morning. The precipitation will be light but should be fairly
steady so have enough confidence to increase PoPs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough diving south thru the PacNW, and
set to amplify and cut off over central CA by Monday afternoon.  As
such, the current NW flow aloft will transition to SW over the next
18 hrs or so.  At the sfc, the cold front that came thru this
morning has resulted in significantly cooler afternoon temps over
yesterday, and should come in just below
normal.

Overnight, PBL winds will veer, and isentropic upglide will
commence, as a stronger secondary cold front currently over the
Central Plains surges into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 17Z Sunday.  RA
should begin developing in from the NE during the morning hours,
increasing throughout the day as isentropic lift strengthens.  After
00Z Monday, CAA surges into the area, w/-10C H85 temps as far south
as KMAF by early Monday morning, and the 0C isotherm down into
Mexico.  Meanwhile, the west coast trough begins sending minor
shortwaves into the region thru SW flow aloft, increasing chances of
precip overnight Sunday and into Monday.  Forecast soundings still
suggest SN can be ruled out, as moisture is generally too shallow.
Where it is sufficiently deep, models keep a warm nose large enough
to completely melt things.  However, the cold, PBL layer persists in
either FZRA or IP...and today`s soundings lean more toward FZRA for
areas generally north of I-10.  Confidence is not high enough to go
total FZRA, especially nrn zones, where the the cold layer thickens
into IP territory at times.  Plus, models differ somewhat on the
thickness of the cold lyr.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of both
FZRA and IP, beginning after 00Z Monday, and continuing thru 18Z
Monday.  Total ice accumulations should remain blo 0.25", except for
portions of the upper Colorado River Valley, namely Borden and
Scurry Counties, which could see a little over 0.25".  For now, we
will be issuing a Winter WX Advisory for all areas north of I-10,
w/an emphasis on FZRA.  If more than 0.25" in the NE persists over
the next few model runs, an upgrade to a Winter Wx Warning may be be
necessary.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will approach and move thru the
region by midweek, w/temps warming thru Wednesday, but remaining blo
normal.  Wednesday night, another cold front is forecast, as another
trough approaches from the Four Corners area.  This looks to be a
repeat of the next several days, w/chances of more precipitation
beginning as soon as Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
Soundings even hint that moisture may be deep enough for SN.  Stay
tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday to Noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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620
FXUS64 KMAF 220351 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
951 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show very widespread precipitation beginning
Sunday and continuing into Monday morning before diminishing
Monday afternoon. This is due to a isentropic lift over a very
cold airmass that will be moving in behind a cold front Sunday
morning. The precipitation will be light but should be fairly
steady so have enough confidence to increase PoPs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue this evening with light winds and thick
high clouds streaming overhead. A strong cold front will arrive by
morning switching winds to the northeast and becoming gusty
throughout the day. Low clouds are expected to develop during the
morning with MVFR and IFR cigs likely by afternoon. Fog and light
rain may also lower vsbys during the afternoon. Rain will likely
change over to freezing rain just beyond this TAF period. More on
that in the next issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough diving south thru the PacNW, and
set to amplify and cut off over central CA by Monday afternoon.  As
such, the current NW flow aloft will transition to SW over the next
18 hrs or so.  At the sfc, the cold front that came thru this
morning has resulted in significantly cooler afternoon temps over
yesterday, and should come in just below
normal.

Overnight, PBL winds will veer, and isentropic upglide will
commence, as a stronger secondary cold front currently over the
Central Plains surges into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 17Z Sunday.  RA
should begin developing in from the NE during the morning hours,
increasing throughout the day as isentropic lift strengthens.  After
00Z Monday, CAA surges into the area, w/-10C H85 temps as far south
as KMAF by early Monday morning, and the 0C isotherm down into
Mexico.  Meanwhile, the west coast trough begins sending minor
shortwaves into the region thru SW flow aloft, increasing chances of
precip overnight Sunday and into Monday.  Forecast soundings still
suggest SN can be ruled out, as moisture is generally too shallow.
Where it is sufficiently deep, models keep a warm nose large enough
to completely melt things.  However, the cold, PBL layer persists in
either FZRA or IP...and today`s soundings lean more toward FZRA for
areas generally north of I-10.  Confidence is not high enough to go
total FZRA, especially nrn zones, where the the cold layer thickens
into IP territory at times.  Plus, models differ somewhat on the
thickness of the cold lyr.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of both
FZRA and IP, beginning after 00Z Monday, and continuing thru 18Z
Monday.  Total ice accumulations should remain blo 0.25", except for
portions of the upper Colorado River Valley, namely Borden and
Scurry Counties, which could see a little over 0.25".  For now, we
will be issuing a Winter WX Advisory for all areas north of I-10,
w/an emphasis on FZRA.  If more than 0.25" in the NE persists over
the next few model runs, an upgrade to a Winter Wx Warning may be be
necessary.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will approach and move thru the
region by midweek, w/temps warming thru Wednesday, but remaining blo
normal.  Wednesday night, another cold front is forecast, as another
trough approaches from the Four Corners area.  This looks to be a
repeat of the next several days, w/chances of more precipitation
beginning as soon as Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
Soundings even hint that moisture may be deep enough for SN.  Stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  43  24  28  /   0  50  70  60
BIG SPRING TX              42  43  24  29  /   0  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                48  53  26  34  /   0  40  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  54  68  35  37  /   0  40  60  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  64  27  34  /   0  40  60  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  56  23  33  /   0  30  60  40
HOBBS NM                   39  41  21  32  /   0  50  70  50
MARFA TX                   43  69  24  44  /   0  30  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  46  22  29  /   0  50  70  60
ODESSA TX                  43  45  25  30  /   0  50  70  60
WINK TX                    46  55  29  37  /   0  40  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday to Noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10

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419
FXUS64 KMAF 212307
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue this evening with light winds and thick
high clouds streaming overhead. A strong cold front will arrive by
morning switching winds to the northeast and becoming gusty
throughout the day. Low clouds are expected to develop during the
morning with MVFR and IFR cigs likely by afternoon. Fog and light
rain may also lower vsbys during the afternoon. Rain will likely
change over to freezing rain just beyond this TAF period. More on
that in the next issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough diving south thru the PacNW, and
set to amplify and cut off over central CA by Monday afternoon.  As
such, the current NW flow aloft will transition to SW over the next
18 hrs or so.  At the sfc, the cold front that came thru this
morning has resulted in significantly cooler afternoon temps over
yesterday, and should come in just below
normal.

Overnight, PBL winds will veer, and isentropic upglide will
commence, as a stronger secondary cold front currently over the
Central Plains surges into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 17Z Sunday.  RA
should begin developing in from the NE during the morning hours,
increasing throughout the day as isentropic lift strengthens.  After
00Z Monday, CAA surges into the area, w/-10C H85 temps as far south
as KMAF by early Monday morning, and the 0C isotherm down into
Mexico.  Meanwhile, the west coast trough begins sending minor
shortwaves into the region thru SW flow aloft, increasing chances of
precip overnight Sunday and into Monday.  Forecast soundings still
suggest SN can be ruled out, as moisture is generally too shallow.
Where it is sufficiently deep, models keep a warm nose large enough
to completely melt things.  However, the cold, PBL layer persists in
either FZRA or IP...and today`s soundings lean more toward FZRA for
areas generally north of I-10.  Confidence is not high enough to go
total FZRA, especially nrn zones, where the the cold layer thickens
into IP territory at times.  Plus, models differ somewhat on the
thickness of the cold lyr.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of both
FZRA and IP, beginning after 00Z Monday, and continuing thru 18Z
Monday.  Total ice accumulations should remain blo 0.25", except for
portions of the upper Colorado River Valley, namely Borden and
Scurry Counties, which could see a little over 0.25".  For now, we
will be issuing a Winter WX Advisory for all areas north of I-10,
w/an emphasis on FZRA.  If more than 0.25" in the NE persists over
the next few model runs, an upgrade to a Winter Wx Warning may be be
necessary.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will approach and move thru the
region by midweek, w/temps warming thru Wednesday, but remaining blo
normal.  Wednesday night, another cold front is forecast, as another
trough approaches from the Four Corners area.  This looks to be a
repeat of the next several days, w/chances of more precipitation
beginning as soon as Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
Soundings even hint that moisture may be deep enough for SN.  Stay
tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday to Noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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459
FXUS64 KMAF 212055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough diving south thru the PacNW, and
set to amplify and cut off over central CA by Monday afternoon.  As
such, the current NW flow aloft will transition to SW over the next
18 hrs or so.  At the sfc, the cold front that came thru this
morning has resulted in significantly cooler afternoon temps over
yesterday, and should come in just below
normal.

Overnight, PBL winds will veer, and isentropic upglide will
commence, as a stronger secondary cold front currently over the
Central Plains surges into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 17Z Sunday.  RA
should begin developing in from the NE during the morning hours,
increasing throughout the day as isentropic lift strengthens.  After
00Z Monday, CAA surges into the area, w/-10C H85 temps as far south
as KMAF by early Monday morning, and the 0C isotherm down into
Mexico.  Meanwhile, the west coast trough begins sending minor
shortwaves into the region thru SW flow aloft, increasing chances of
precip overnight Sunday and into Monday.  Forecast soundings still
suggest SN can be ruled out, as moisture is generally too shallow.
Where it is sufficiently deep, models keep a warm nose large enough
to completely melt things.  However, the cold, PBL layer persists in
either FZRA or IP...and today`s soundings lean more toward FZRA for
areas generally north of I-10.  Confidence is not high enough to go
total FZRA, especially nrn zones, where the the cold layer thickens
into IP territory at times.  Plus, models differ somewhat on the
thickness of the cold lyr.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of both
FZRA and IP, beginning after 00Z Monday, and continuing thru 18Z
Monday.  Total ice accumulations should remain blo 0.25", except for
portions of the upper Colorado River Valley, namely Borden and
Scurry Counties, which could see a little over 0.25".  For now, we
will be issuing a Winter WX Advisory for all areas north of I-10,
w/an emphasis on FZRA.  If more than 0.25" in the NE persists over
the next few model runs, an upgrade to a Winter Wx Warning may be be
necessary.

Otherwise, the west coast trough will approach and move thru the
region by midweek, w/temps warming thru Wednesday, but remaining blo
normal.  Wednesday night, another cold front is forecast, as another
trough approaches from the Four Corners area.  This looks to be a
repeat of the next several days, w/chances of more precipitation
beginning as soon as Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.
Soundings even hint that moisture may be deep enough for SN.  Stay
tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  43  24  28  /   0  50  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              42  43  24  29  /   0  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                48  53  26  34  /   0  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  54  68  35  37  /   0  40  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  64  27  34  /   0  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  56  23  33  /   0  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   39  41  21  32  /   0  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   43  69  24  44  /   0  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  46  22  29  /   0  50  40  30
ODESSA TX                  43  45  25  30  /   0  50  40  30
WINK TX                    46  55  29  37  /   0  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM Sunday to 11 AM MST Monday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday to Noon
     CST /11 AM MST/ Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...
     Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday evening through late Sunday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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929
FXUS64 KMAF 211801
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Northeasterly winds will become southeasterly by late this
afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will push south across the
region overnight tonight and Sunday morning. KHOB could see FROPA
around 09Z, KMAF around 10Z, and KFST around 15Z, with winds
becoming northeasterly and increasing to 12-15KT. Ceilings will
gradually lower behind the front, with MVFR conditions possible by
the last few hours of the forecast period, particularly at KMAF
and KHOB. While there is a chance of some light rain, precip will
likely hold off until just beyond 18Z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will persist today while a shortwave trough digs
south into the western ConUS. A cold front will move through the
Permian Basin this morning then hang up around the Pecos River. This
front will do little more than briefly shift winds to the N and
hold temps in the 60s across the NE half of the FA. Areas to the
SW will have no problem warming into the 70s with westerly
downsloping winds in place. Windy and dry conditions expected once
again this afternoon could result in a few hours of elevated fire
weather concerns. See the fire weather discussion below for more
details.

A secondary push of cold air will arrive Sunday morning with
falling temperatures expected throughout the day. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned trough will approach the Four Corners region, backing
flow aloft to the SW. Forecast models generate QPF from NE to SW
Sunday afternoon/evening due to increased isentropic upglide
across much of the region. This regime is expected to continue
through Monday morning with best chances NE of the Pecos River.
Although CAA will continue throughout the day Sunday, there remains
great uncertainty on the timing of below freezing temperatures and
therefore when to expect the onset of wintry precip. Will continue
to advertise precip as all rain during the day Sunday but as
temperatures continue to decrease Sunday night, the chances for
wintry precip will increase from N to S.

Sunday night through Monday morning, model forecast soundings
suggest freezing rain as the main precip type with periods of
sleet mixed in as well. Areas across the far south should remain all
rain. Exact ice accumulations are still up in the air but went ahead
and increased amounts particularly across the NE zones. These areas
could receive up to 0.20" of ice before precip diminishes from west
to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest impacts look to occur
from 06-12Z Monday which is concerning given it would affect the
Monday morning commute. Decided to hold off on issuing a Winter
Weather Watch due to remaining uncertainties however one may be
needed later if confidence increases for major impacts Monday
morning. For now, will continue strong wording for potentially
dangerous impacts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special
Weather Statement.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 20s northeast
to near 50 southwest. Beyond Monday, look for temperatures to
increase but remain slightly below normal through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned shortwave will swing east
across the southern Plains, sending another cold front through the
region. Another upper trough is then progged to dig into the
western ConUS late week with a possible return of freezing/frozen
precip.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move into the area this morning bringing cooler
temperatures and higher rh to the region.  However the front is
expected to hang up and may lift back to the north during the
afternoon thus not reaching the Guadalupe Mountains.  20ft winds
today of 10 to 20 mph are possible across the Guadalupes and the
lower elevations should remain warm allowing minimum rh to fall into
the 15 to 20 percent range.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the Guadalupe Mountains below 6000ft this afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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829
FXUS64 KMAF 211139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed to near the Pecos River as of 11z with a
gusty north wind along it. This front is expected to stall out
during the day and lift northward during the afternoon with the
wind becoming southerly. There are some low cigs under the mid and
high clouds and have continued mention of MVFR cigs for a few
hours at MAF and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will persist today while a shortwave trough digs
south into the western ConUS. A cold front will move through the
Permian Basin this morning then hang up around the Pecos River. This
front will do little more than briefly shift winds to the N and
hold temps in the 60s across the NE half of the FA. Areas to the
SW will have no problem warming into the 70s with westerly
downsloping winds in place. Windy and dry conditions expected once
again this afternoon could result in a few hours of elevated fire
weather concerns. See the fire weather discussion below for more
details.

A secondary push of cold air will arrive Sunday morning with
falling temperatures expected throughout the day. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned trough will approach the Four Corners region, backing
flow aloft to the SW. Forecast models generate QPF from NE to SW
Sunday afternoon/evening due to increased isentropic upglide
across much of the region. This regime is expected to continue
through Monday morning with best chances NE of the Pecos River.
Although CAA will continue throughout the day Sunday, there remains
great uncertainty on the timing of below freezing temperatures and
therefore when to expect the onset of wintry precip. Will continue
to advertise precip as all rain during the day Sunday but as
temperatures continue to decrease Sunday night, the chances for
wintry precip will increase from N to S.

Sunday night through Monday morning, model forecast soundings
suggest freezing rain as the main precip type with periods of
sleet mixed in as well. Areas across the far south should remain all
rain. Exact ice accumulations are still up in the air but went ahead
and increased amounts particularly across the NE zones. These areas
could receive up to 0.20" of ice before precip diminishes from west
to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest impacts look to occur
from 06-12Z Monday which is concerning given it would affect the
Monday morning commute. Decided to hold off on issuing a Winter
Weather Watch due to remaining uncertainties however one may be
needed later if confidence increases for major impacts Monday
morning. For now, will continue strong wording for potentially
dangerous impacts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special
Weather Statement.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 20s northeast
to near 50 southwest. Beyond Monday, look for temperatures to
increase but remain slightly below normal through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned shortwave will swing east
across the southern Plains, sending another cold front through the
region. Another upper trough is then progged to dig into the
western ConUS late week with a possible return of freezing/frozen
precip.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move into the area this morning bringing cooler
temperatures and higher rh to the region.  However the front is
expected to hang up and may lift back to the north during the
afternoon thus not reaching the Guadalupe Mountains.  20ft winds
today of 10 to 20 mph are possible across the Guadalupes and the
lower elevations should remain warm allowing minimum rh to fall into
the 15 to 20 percent range.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the Guadalupe Mountains below 6000ft this afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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634
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will persist today while a shortwave trough digs
south into the western ConUS. A cold front will move through the
Permian Basin this morning then hang up around the Pecos River. This
front will do little more than briefly shift winds to the N and
hold temps in the 60s across the NE half of the FA. Areas to the
SW will have no problem warming into the 70s with westerly
downsloping winds in place. Windy and dry conditions expected once
again this afternoon could result in a few hours of elevated fire
weather concerns. See the fire weather discussion below for more
details.

A secondary push of cold air will arrive Sunday morning with
falling temperatures expected throughout the day. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned trough will approach the Four Corners region, backing
flow aloft to the SW. Forecast models generate QPF from NE to SW
Sunday afternoon/evening due to increased isentropic upglide
across much of the region. This regime is expected to continue
through Monday morning with best chances NE of the Pecos River.
Although CAA will continue throughout the day Sunday, there remains
great uncertainty on the timing of below freezing temperatures and
therefore when to expect the onset of wintry precip. Will continue
to advertise precip as all rain during the day Sunday but as
temperatures continue to decrease Sunday night, the chances for
wintry precip will increase from N to S.

Sunday night through Monday morning, model forecast soundings
suggest freezing rain as the main precip type with periods of
sleet mixed in as well. Areas across the far south should remain all
rain. Exact ice accumulations are still up in the air but went ahead
and increased amounts particularly across the NE zones. These areas
could receive up to 0.20" of ice before precip diminishes from west
to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest impacts look to occur
from 06-12Z Monday which is concerning given it would affect the
Monday morning commute. Decided to hold off on issuing a Winter
Weather Watch due to remaining uncertainties however one may be
needed later if confidence increases for major impacts Monday
morning. For now, will continue strong wording for potentially
dangerous impacts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special
Weather Statement.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 20s northeast
to near 50 southwest. Beyond Monday, look for temperatures to
increase but remain slightly below normal through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned shortwave will swing east
across the southern Plains, sending another cold front through the
region. Another upper trough is then progged to dig into the
western ConUS late week with a possible return of freezing/frozen
precip.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move into the area this morning bringing cooler
temperatures and higher rh to the region.  However the front is
expected to hang up and may lift back to the north during the
afternoon thus not reaching the Guadalupe Mountains.  20ft winds
today of 15 to 25 mph are possible across the Guadalupes and the
lower elevations should remain warm allowing minimum rh to fall into
the 15 to 20 percent range.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the Guadalupe Mountains below 6000ft this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  36  37  22  /   0  10  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              65  37  40  22  /   0  10  40  60
CARLSBAD NM                72  44  48  27  /   0  10  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  63  35  /   0  10  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  46  59  27  /   0  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  46  56  24  /   0  10  20  30
HOBBS NM                   63  35  36  21  /   0  10  40  60
MARFA TX                   71  39  68  29  /   0  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  37  41  23  /   0  10  30  60
ODESSA TX                  66  38  41  24  /   0  10  30  50
WINK TX                    72  41  50  28  /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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967
FXUS64 KMAF 210554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong west wind will continue at CNM through the night with
lighter wind elsewhere.  A cold front currently in the TX
Panhandle will arrive around 21/12Z with wind becoming NE.  Some
low MVFR cigs are possible initially behind the front at HOB and
MAF before clearing late morning.  The wind will gradually veer to
the east during afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

UPDATE...
Update has been sent to reflect FROPA a little earlier across the
nw-n CWFA and to remove NPW highlights for GDP Mtns.

DISCUSSION...
Cold front moving thru the Panhandle at the moment is being pushed
by a 8mb/3hr isallobaric anticyclone. NAM12 looks to be under doing
the wind there, RUC13/HRRR are a little better. Still the general
idea is that the isallobaric anticyclone will track sse and weaken
by 12Z to around 6-7 mb, thus winds aren`t expected to be as strong
as they are now in the Panhandle when front arrives in the PB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft thru most of the CONUS, w/ the next
shortwave digging thru the Rockies and approaching the Four Corners
region.  Closer to home, sfc obs show SW-W downslope flow has warmed
temps into the 70s most locations, making it feel more like late May
than late February...despite increasing cloud cover.  Out west, obs
and RTMA analysis shows Red Flag conditions have developed in the
Guadalupes, and extending SE into the upper Trans Pecos. Winds at
KGDP are flirting w/high wind criteria as well.  Models suggest
current warning products covering these conditions through the
mid-evening will not need extending.

Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave will backdoor a cold
front into the area, w/fropa at KMAF at around 12Z.  This doesn`t
look to be that strong, but will knock afternoon temps across the NE
half of the CWA down to around normal, before stalling midway thru
the FA.  Saturday night, isentropic upglide is forecast to begin
increasing cloud cover over the NE, and spread SW into the day
Sunday.  A much stronger secondary front arrives Sunday, w/buffer
soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 18Z.  An upper trough will
begin amplifying over the western CONUS during this time,
transitioning flow aloft to zonal, and even a little SW, by 00Z
Monday, and begin sending minor shortwaves into the area.  Isentropic
upglide will be on the uptick w/SW flow Sunday afternoon/night as
CAA dams up against the mtns, for a chance of precipitation over the
nrn zones.  Forecast soundings keep precip rain during the day
Sunday, but just barely in the NE zones.  However, after 00Z, cold
air in the PBL surges south, changing rain to a wintry mix.
Saturation in the column never gets abv around H8, so SN can be
ruled out, and soundings lean more toward FZRA and/or IP.  Thickness
of the cold layer fluctuates between FZRA and IP at times, and this
far out, confidence is low picking one or the other, as models will
change.  Thus, we`ll go w/a FZRA/IP mix north of I-10 Sunday night,
dropping a little further south Monday as the west coast trough
approaches and pushes precip east.  Ice accumulations look fairly
light, w/totals of around 0.15" in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and
tapering off W and S.  This will likely require and advisory either
tonight or Saturday, due to potential adverse
impacts.

Otherwise, temps bottom out Monday afternoon, then begin warming
into midweek before another front arrives Thursday.  Another trough
rounds out the forecast Thursday night/Friday, bringing a chance of
rain and snow to the NE zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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161
FXUS64 KMAF 210323 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Update has been sent to reflect FROPA a little earlier across the
nw-n CWFA and to remove NPW highlights for GDP Mtns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front moving thru the Panhandle at the moment is being pushed
by a 8mb/3hr isallobaric anticyclone. NAM12 looks to be under doing
the wind there, RUC13/HRRR are a little better. Still the general
idea is that the isallobaric anticyclone will track sse and weaken
by 12Z to around 6-7 mb, thus winds aren`t expected to be as strong
as they are now in the Panhandle when front arrives in the PB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue through the night. Strong westerly
winds will subside after sunset at all terminals except KCNM where
winds may gust over 25 kts most of the night. Thick high clouds
will also continue to stream across the region. A cold front will
arrive around 21/12Z with moderate northeasterly winds behind it
most of Saturday. A few low cigs could accompany the front, but
should mix out quickly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft thru most of the CONUS, w/ the next
shortwave digging thru the Rockies and approaching the Four Corners
region.  Closer to home, sfc obs show SW-W downslope flow has warmed
temps into the 70s most locations, making it feel more like late May
than late February...despite increasing cloud cover.  Out west, obs
and RTMA analysis shows Red Flag conditions have developed in the
Guadalupes, and extending SE into the upper Trans Pecos. Winds at
KGDP are flirting w/high wind criteria as well.  Models suggest
current warning products covering these conditions through the
mid-evening will not need extending.

Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave will backdoor a cold
front into the area, w/fropa at KMAF at around 12Z.  This doesn`t
look to be that strong, but will knock afternoon temps across the NE
half of the CWA down to around normal, before stalling midway thru
the FA.  Saturday night, isentropic upglide is forecast to begin
increasing cloud cover over the NE, and spread SW into the day
Sunday.  A much stronger secondary front arrives Sunday, w/buffer
soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 18Z.  An upper trough will
begin amplifying over the western CONUS during this time,
transitioning flow aloft to zonal, and even a little SW, by 00Z
Monday, and begin sending minor shortwaves into the area.  Isentropic
upglide will be on the uptick w/SW flow Sunday afternoon/night as
CAA dams up against the mtns, for a chance of precipitation over the
nrn zones.  Forecast soundings keep precip rain during the day
Sunday, but just barely in the NE zones.  However, after 00Z, cold
air in the PBL surges south, changing rain to a wintry mix.
Saturation in the column never gets abv around H8, so SN can be
ruled out, and soundings lean more toward FZRA and/or IP.  Thickness
of the cold layer fluctuates between FZRA and IP at times, and this
far out, confidence is low picking one or the other, as models will
change.  Thus, we`ll go w/a FZRA/IP mix north of I-10 Sunday night,
dropping a little further south Monday as the west coast trough
approaches and pushes precip east.  Ice accumulations look fairly
light, w/totals of around 0.15" in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and
tapering off W and S.  This will likely require and advisory either
tonight or Saturday, due to potential adverse
impacts.

Otherwise, temps bottom out Monday afternoon, then begin warming
into midweek before another front arrives Thursday.  Another trough
rounds out the forecast Thursday night/Friday, bringing a chance of
rain and snow to the NE zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 43  64  38  38  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              46  65  41  42  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                47  71  43  47  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  55  83  52  64  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  72  47  62  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  68  48  59  /   0   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   39  63  35  37  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   45  71  39  70  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  64  40  43  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  46  65  41  43  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    48  72  40  49  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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990
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue through the night. Strong westerly
winds will subside after sunset at all terminals except KCNM where
winds may gust over 25 kts most of the night. Thick high clouds
will also continue to stream across the region. A cold front will
arrive around 21/12Z with moderate northeasterly winds behind it
most of Saturday. A few low cigs could accompany the front, but
should mix out quickly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft thru most of the CONUS, w/ the next
shortwave digging thru the Rockies and approaching the Four Corners
region.  Closer to home, sfc obs show SW-W downslope flow has warmed
temps into the 70s most locations, making it feel more like late May
than late February...despite increasing cloud cover.  Out west, obs
and RTMA analysis shows Red Flag conditions have developed in the
Guadalupes, and extending SE into the upper Trans Pecos. Winds at
KGDP are flirting w/high wind criteria as well.  Models suggest
current warning products covering these conditions through the
mid-evening will not need extending.

Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave will backdoor a cold
front into the area, w/fropa at KMAF at around 12Z.  This doesn`t
look to be that strong, but will knock afternoon temps across the NE
half of the CWA down to around normal, before stalling midway thru
the FA.  Saturday night, isentropic upglide is forecast to begin
increasing cloud cover over the NE, and spread SW into the day
Sunday.  A much stronger secondary front arrives Sunday, w/buffer
soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 18Z.  An upper trough will
begin amplifying over the western CONUS during this time,
transitioning flow aloft to zonal, and even a little SW, by 00Z
Monday, and begin sending minor shortwaves into the area.  Isentropic
upglide will be on the uptick w/SW flow Sunday afternoon/night as
CAA dams up against the mtns, for a chance of precipitation over the
nrn zones.  Forecast soundings keep precip rain during the day
Sunday, but just barely in the NE zones.  However, after 00Z, cold
air in the PBL surges south, changing rain to a wintry mix.
Saturation in the column never gets abv around H8, so SN can be
ruled out, and soundings lean more toward FZRA and/or IP.  Thickness
of the cold layer fluctuates between FZRA and IP at times, and this
far out, confidence is low picking one or the other, as models will
change.  Thus, we`ll go w/a FZRA/IP mix north of I-10 Sunday night,
dropping a little further south Monday as the west coast trough
approaches and pushes precip east.  Ice accumulations look fairly
light, w/totals of around 0.15" in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and
tapering off W and S.  This will likely require and advisory either
tonight or Saturday, due to potential adverse
impacts.

Otherwise, temps bottom out Monday afternoon, then begin warming
into midweek before another front arrives Thursday.  Another trough
rounds out the forecast Thursday night/Friday, bringing a chance of
rain and snow to the NE zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29

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