Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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001
FXUS64 KMAF 310447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Light
southeast winds will generally increase to 10 to 15 mph and gusty
by mid to late Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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