Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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004
FXUS64 KMAF 162319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable through the overnight period.  A cold front will
move through the area tomorrow morning bringing winds out of the
northeast.  Some gusts may occur with the cold front but otherwise
winds are expected to be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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