Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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047
FXUS64 KMAF 290534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN AOB 12KT. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MAINLY SE NM AND PERMIAN
BASIN TAF SITES AFTER 30/00Z, BUT GIVEN TIMING/COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, PRESIDIO VALLEY, THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY. DON`T EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SMALL AND UPPER LIFT
WILL BE LACKING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE CWA
UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL US DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING OVER/NEAR
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE MCS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX AS IT
REACHES THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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