Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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568
FXUS64 KMAF 031720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A weak wind
shift to the NW is expected at HOB/MAF around 00Z/01Z,
respectively and then around the E by 12Z. A isolated storm will
be possible E of HOB and N of MAF late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s... will need to see this increase before can have much
chance of rain. By this weekend rain chances will increase with
approach of upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  80  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  77  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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