Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015


See 06z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light out of mostly the southeast.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/


No impact weather conditions are forecast for west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico through next weekend.

A weakness in the mid/upper level flow is centered over east
Texas. Tropical moisture continues to flow into the eastern
semicircle of this feature. Meanwhile, a split flow pattern
appears to develop off the coast of NOAM. There`s fair agreement
that an intensifying upper trough within the westerlies over
central Canada will phase somewhat with the east Texas low,
pulling it up and away toward the middle of the week. Behind this
trough, upper level ridging is forecast to build over the desert
Southwest east across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Warmer temperatures are forecast areawide this week, running some
5 to 10 degrees above normal for last September/early October.

Sig wx nil through at least Thursday. Extended models differ on
the evolution of a progressive short wave trough moving over the
Pacific NW . This will have implications hereabouts Saturday and
Sundays, as a cold front may (or may not) slide south and stall
(or not) over the Permian Basin by the end of the work week. Have
gone more or less with a dampened GFS solution late in the
extended, with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening TSRA
possible over the southeastern New Mexican plains next weekend.
Rain chances may also hinge on the development of a tropical
cyclone maybe 300 km SW of Acapulco. Spaghetti models show a slow
development over the next five days. Should we get a moisture tap
from the subtropical eastern Pacific, rain chances next weekend
may increase...stay tuned.




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