Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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524
FXUS64 KMAF 230534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in direct
convection. KMAF VAD profiler shows a moderate, 35kt LLJ has
developed over the area tonight, w/plenty of high cloud moving
thru a dirty ridge over the area. Sfc flow is forecast yo veer
slightly to S over the next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast to
redevelop after sunset Saturday night. Forecast soundings develop
a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 3.5-5 kft agl. As
an upper trough moves NE out of Mexico, could see some convection
develop over the Big Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos. This will affect mainly
KFST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows a weak cumulus field developing in the Big
Bend with thunderstorms firing across the border in northern
Mexico. This is due in part from increasing moisture interacting
with higher terrain, however there is also an upper level low
moving onto the Baja of Mexico that is increasing instability.
This afternoon and evening we are expecting a few showers and
storms to develop, especially in the Davis Mountains, diminishing
later tonight only to reform again tomorrow. The highest rain
chances will be closer to the low in the Big Bend region and
diminishing farther north.

The upper low moves east of the area Sunday leaving increasing
west winds and warmer temperatures...highs will likely reach 90
for the first time this year in Midland/Odessa Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday another deep upper level low moves into the Rockies
backing upper level flow, lowering heights, and helping cool
temperatures down slightly. This low will stay too far north to
give our area much of a chance for rainfall but it will push a
weak cold front into the Permian Basin. Yet another upper low
moves into the western U.S. and should increase instability enough
for showers and storms to form along the front late next week.
Rain chances will greatly hinge on whether the cold front will
indeed make it this far south as convergence along this boundary
would increase rainfall coverage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  59  88  57 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  58  88  59 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         81  62  89  61 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  83  61  90  59 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  57  78  55 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          82  54  85  52 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          74  47  80  47 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  62  91  59 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         84  62  90  60 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           89  62  93  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44

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