Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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675
FXUS64 KMAF 170520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected most locations this TAF period. MAF may
briefly see IFR/MVFR CIGs 12-15Z and have left the TEMPO group in.
Light east to southeast winds will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry air continues to stream overhead in SW flow aloft today, as
seen on WV satellite imagery, resulting in mostly sunny skies and
temperatures steadily warming into the upper 80s to low 90s this
afternoon. Mid/upper level shear axis remains parked just east of
the forecast area today however upper ridging across the SE ConUS
will slowly build westward tonight, shifting the shear axis back
west. In addition, moisture will begin to increase significantly
tonight and by this time tomorrow, dew points will be a good 10
degrees higher across the eastern CWA than what we are seeing
this afternoon. As a result of increased moisture and lift,
thunderstorm chances will increase across SE zones late
tonight/Wednesday, slowly spreading NW through Thursday. Best
chances look to occur on Thursday along and east of a Seminole to
Pecos to Marfa line however if the shear axis shifts farther west,
so will rain chances. Locally heavy rainfall will be of some
concern, particularly across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos on Thursday, as PWATs increase to the 1.5-2" range. Cloud
cover and increased rain chances should hold high temperatures in
the 80s most locations during this time.

Looks like we may get a little break in the rain Friday and Saturday
with just some lower end chances across the east and south. The lull
in precip will give temperatures a chance to warm up a bit with
highs back in the 90s for most locations by Saturday. This warming
trend will be cut short with the arrival of a cold front sometime
Sunday, resulting in the return of cooler temperatures and increased
rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  84  69  90 /  30  50  30  30
Carlsbad                       65  90  66  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  87  71  90 /  50  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  67  86  67  92 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          63  86  65  91 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          59  80  59  85 /  30  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  85  69  91 /  30  40  20  20
Odessa                         68  85  69  92 /  30  40  20  20
Wink                           68  89  69  95 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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