Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 131733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals through much of this TAF cycle. Currently have
MVFR (with some patchy IFR) cigs across the board early this
afternoon and this is expected to continue through tonight and into
Sunday morning. Conditions expected to deteriorate later
tonight/early Sunday for at least HOB, MAF and FST. For now, will
only mention IFR returning to these locations and later shifts will
need to evaluate potential at the other terminals. Persistent low
cloud deck looks to hang around through at least 14/18Z. Otherwise,
current NE winds will veer to the E/SE by this evening with speeds
aob 10kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower high temperatures for this afternoon
and also to remove wording of expired High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass from the zones. Temperatures have made little to no
progress in warming so far this morning under the persistent cloud
deck. Expecting clouds to stick around all day and keep
temperatures below previously forecasted highs for today. Not
really sure most places will even make it out of the 50s but
remained on the conservative side for now and only brought temps
down a few degrees, generally into the low to mid 60s areawide.
Otherwise...winds at Guadalupe Pass have diminished below high
wind criteria and the High Wind Warning was allowed to expire. The
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track for today and no
other adjustments we made. The updated zones have been sent.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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