Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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665
FXUS64 KMAF 280856
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system across southern Nevada will
move east across the southern Rockies through tonight. As this
occurs it will intensify and take on a negative tilt. East of
this upper low, a surface low will develop over the western high
plains region in the southwest flow aloft. Low level thermal
ridging will push temperatures well above normal this afternoon.
The backing mid level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward
into the Permian Basin late today and tonight and the intensifying
system is expected to generate decent large scale lift as it
becomes negatively tilted. This should allow for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dryline late
this afternoon in intense heating across the central/eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As the upper system becomes
negatively tilted tonight, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and expand westward across the remainder of the
Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico Plains along the
retreating dryline. A few storms could be severe given bulk shear
of 40 to 45 knots with capes ranging from 1000 to 3000 j/kg.

This upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast from the
southern Rockies into the central Plains Friday and Saturday. This
should push the precipitation east of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy conditions
should develop on Friday with near to slightly above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be
possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold
front and surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary.
Behind the front high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to be much below normal.

Precipitation chances should decrease behind this system
Tuesday through Thursday with isolated thunderstorms confined
to the mountains and or portions of the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday
and then climb to near normal values by next Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store
for the entire forecast area today. Since fire danger remains
high, and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the SE NM Plains, will issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas from 28/17Z to 29/03Z. In spite
of minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent roughly
along and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Sanderson line this
afternoon, 20 foot wind speeds will stay below 20 mph sustained
for the most part, except in the RFW area mentioned above. A
dryline will take shape over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and
could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Rain chances will increase tonight as the dryline surges westward
with good or better recovery roughly along and east of a Hobbs to
Big Bend line, and poor recovery to the west of this line.

The dryline will push east of the region Friday morning.
Temperatures are expected to rise near normal levels by afternoon,
but 20 foot wind speeds will likely rise above 20 mph sustained over
locations along and west of a Hobbs to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Big Bend line.  Since fire danger will still be high or better in
these areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch from 29/16Z to 30/03Z
for most areas west of the above line.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor in most locations as low level winds remain out of the west.
High temperatures will remain above normal Saturday afternoon, but
wind speeds look too weak for additional fire weather highlights.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  86  53 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  53  80  49 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         92  64  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  57  85  55 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  50  70  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          85  51  76  45 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                          83  43  76  40 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  84  55 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  84  55 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           92  56  85  52 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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