Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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778
FXUS64 KMAF 292326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SE NM... HAVE
INCLUDED TEMP TSRA AT CNM AND HOB BUT REMOVED IT FROM MAF AS NOT
CONFIDENT WILL MAKE IT TO THERE. WIND ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR ANY
STORM OTHERWISE IT WILL BE LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONAL UNDER THIS REGIME...BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING.  THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WHICH WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...SO WILL ADD ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES MAY RESIDE THROUGH MAX HEATING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOIST ABIABATIC...SO
TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM
A FEW OF THE STORMS.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...IF NOT ON THE
CAPROCK IN SE NM...WITH A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO PROVIDE MID
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND A MODEST H3 JET OF 60KT NOSING INTO THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.


IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND A BIT FARTHER EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD...WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ON
THURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  IF
THIS IS THE CASE...WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF DISORGANIZED STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT INCREASE POPS
TOO MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF FICKLE SUMMER FEATURES IN
MAINLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...WILL
BE KEPT IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS...AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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