Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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197
FXUS64 KMAF 221936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  81  57  82  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  81  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  81  53  83  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  80  61  83  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  81  59  85  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  76  58  77  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  80  54  82  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  76  47  78  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    54  84  56  86  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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430
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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931
FXUS64 KMAF 221134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  57  81  58  /  40  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  55  81  57  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  81  54  /  30  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  59  80  61  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  57  81  59  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  57  76  59  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   75  54  80  55  /  30  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  47  76  46  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  53  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  54  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79  53  84  56  /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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967
FXUS64 KMAF 220552
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue to percolate across parts of the area
tonight, and thus have maintained mention of -SHRA in KHOB and
KCNM TAFs. Flight conditions will remain largely VFR, though
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as showers move
through the area, mainly before 18Z Wednesday. One exception is
KPEQ, where a window exists from roughly 10-14Z for some transient
MVFR fog development. Otherwise, not many changes made to the
going TAF package, as light southeast winds will prevail, with
ceilings scattering out by latter portion of the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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919
FXUS64 KMAF 212324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered light showers continue across the area this evening but
rainfall amounts will be light. No TS is expected. MVFR CIGs will
also be scattered around but are mainly expected in southeast NM
and the upper Trans Pecos 06-18Z. Conditions will improve the last
6 hours of the TAF period to VFR.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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065
FXUS64 KMAF 211901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  74  56  81  /  30  60  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              59  70  60  81  /  20  50  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                60  73  54  82  /  50  30  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  74  62  80  /  20  40  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  77  59  83  /  30  50  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  69  57  77  /  50  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   56  72  53  80  /  40  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   51  73  49  77  /  50  40  40  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  74  57  80  /  30  60  30  10
ODESSA TX                  59  76  58  80  /  30  60  30  10
WINK TX                    61  78  58  86  /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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042
FXUS64 KMAF 211746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms have continued through the afternoon
from KFST to just south of KHOB.  Most sites will experience MVFR
ceilings through the afternoon. Have mentioned -SHRA with the
expected increase in coverage of showers through this afternoon into
the evening. May also see a thunderstorm as well, so have left in
a Tempo for a couple sites. Do not anticipate any drastic changes
to the winds as they will be out of the S and SE at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

06

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  59  72  56  /  10  60  60  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  60  67  59  /  10  30  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  59  73  54  /  70  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  63  75  61  /  20  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  61  77  58  /  30  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  54  68  58  /  70  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                   73  58  70  54  /  10  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   68  51  72  48  /  70  60  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  59  71  56  /  10  60  70  30
ODESSA TX                  77  59  74  56  /  10  60  70  30
WINK TX                    76  60  77  56  /  30  50  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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758
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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419
FXUS64 KMAF 202301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms at all but KMAF as showers and
thunderstorms continue along and west of an axis from Hobbs to Fort
Stockton this evening.  Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR later
tonight, and possibly dip to IFR by 21/12Z at most terminals.  In
addition, fog could lower visibility to at least MVFR levels by
21/12Z at most TAF sites.  It appears MVFR ceilings may hang around
for much of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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562
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans Pecos.
Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the Lower Rio
Grande Valley, and local heavy rain isn possible. Mid level theta-e
ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this evening best
PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However there`s a
substantial amount of TCU developing across the area currently,
including the PB and in the near term there is an increasing
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be possible just
e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv trof/s come out.
The upper low will be weakening/filling as it slowly moves e Tue.
This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs farther e, including
across the PB. Model consensus including HPC QPF is again supporting
best PoPs to be to the w extending from the Davis Mtns into the wrn
PB, possibly central PB. Current grids reflect this pretty well and
will make only minor adjustments. Finally Wed this slow moving trof
axis will be farther e into the PB and this actually may be the day
with the best chance of rain with NAM12 bringing out a well defined
maxima of lift in mid levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40%
and will opt to increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern
transitions to ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures
will return. A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus
cooler, but moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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346
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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234
FXUS64 KMAF 201130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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548
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 192306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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836
FXUS64 KMAF 191922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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432
FXUS64 KMAF 191724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly -SHRA are near PEQ/INK/HOB/MAF. Development of -SHRA/-TSRA
is slow, but there is enough of a trend to expect development to
continue thru the PM. Have opted to include -SHRA at HOB/PEQ btwn
19Z-21Z. -TSRA potential is too low to include attm. MVFR CIGS
will again be possible overnight mainly after 07Z, per NAM BUFR
soundings and have included.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 191320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:15 am CDT Sunday...radar continues to show
mainly light shower activity over the western portions of the CWA.
Based on radar imagery and cooling cloud tops per IR imagery have
decided to bump up pops in the west for today. Have kept chc pops
in the east as convective activity in northern Mexico south of
Terrell County is forecast to spread north and northwest today.

Strobin

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  30  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  30  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  30  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33/49

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206
FXUS64 KMAF 191123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 190908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  20  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  20  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  20  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 190536
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper low will draw moisture northward bringing MVFR/IFR CIGs
into the area around 12Z. These CIGs should lift after 18Z but a
return of low clouds is expected near the end or just after the
end of this TAF period. The low will also bring showers and
isolated TS, though not enough to put in the prevailing weather
group at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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071
FXUS64 KMAF 182333
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to be out of the east through Sunday morning and
then become southeasterly.  Winds will generally remain light with
some gusts possible Sunday afternoon.  Precipitation will move into
the area Sunday morning with the best chances for KMAF.  Low clouds
will move into the area around 09z with the lowest ceilings likely
occurring around 13z.  Ceilings will probably improve around 19z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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549
FXUS64 KMAF 181936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  73  56  72  /  10  30  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  74  58  76  /   0  30  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                53  72  56  72  /  20  20  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  64  77  64  78  /  30  30  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  76  59  74  /  10  20  20  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  65  53  68  /  10  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                   49  73  54  71  /  10  20  20  40
MARFA TX                   47  74  50  69  /  10  20  40  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  75  58  74  /   0  30  10  40
ODESSA TX                  56  75  59  74  /   0  30  10  40
WINK TX                    58  75  61  75  /   0  30  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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061
FXUS64 KMAF 181729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are dissipating around and e of HOB with some BKN100 remaining.
Concern for the overnight is the return of MVFR CIGS which looks to
be most likely after 10Z. Satellite showed considerable low clouds/mstr
well to the s this AM and we expect that this mstr will surge nwd
overnight. Also have opted to include PROB30 -TSRA all locales except
CNM/HOB starting as early as 13Z at FST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 181436 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
936 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent an update to increase PoPs in the chance category across
the far NW CWFA where mostly showers are moving ne across that
area. Local rainfall amounts around .15" possible, TTU Mesonet in
SE NM shows that .14" at Hobbs and .18" at Tatum has fallen.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  54  73  58  /  20  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  56  73  59  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  54  74  58  /  20  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  85  63  74  64  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  75  59  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  68  55  /  10  10  20  40
HOBBS NM                   73  50  73  56  /  30  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  49  74  52  /   0  10  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  54  72  59  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  57  73  60  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    80  58  75  62  /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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534
FXUS64 KMAF 181122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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125
FXUS64 KMAF 180907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  54  73  58  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  56  73  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  54  74  58  /  20  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  85  63  74  64  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  75  59  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  68  55  /  10  10  20  40
HOBBS NM                   73  50  73  56  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  49  74  52  /   0  10  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  54  72  59  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  57  73  60  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    80  58  75  62  /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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472
FXUS64 KMAF 180538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting mostly VFR conditions through the period though brief
MVRF CIGs may appear in southeast NM 12-18Z. Light northeast winds
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is INVOF of Pecos River and will lose momentum
near e slopes of mtns this evening. Meanwhile satellite does show
shrtwv trof INVOF AZ which will track across AZ/NM overnight with
enuf mid level lift and instability with trof axis for elevated
TSRA tonight/SAT AM, mainly across SE NM. There will be drier
surface air there however, in association with surface ridging,
thus favoring light precip amounts. Said surface ridging and
clouds, especially n of I-20 will make for noticeably cooler temps
Sat, U60s-U70s. Low level mstr will increase some Sunday, but more
interesting wx will be off to the w of CWFA in closer proximity
to an upper low that develops near Baja Calif. Sunday`s high temps
will be only a little a warmer with less surface ridging, but
still below normal. Said upper low will slowly move closer thru
Monday, near El Paso City or just to the s, so mid level flow will
back giving a little more time for low levels to moisten further.
7h-5h LRs of 6-6.5 C/km suggestive of SHRA with a few TSRA. Good
agreement among models that best PoPs will be across the w-sw CWFA
and current fcst will only need minor adjustments. Upper low will
weaken to the w Monday night into Tuesday and better PoPs will
remain to the w with seasonal to just below normal temps.
Thereafter differences appear in models with ECMWF deepening a
trof/precip farther w than GFS. Little change to forecast with
model uncertainty for now

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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091
FXUS64 KMAF 171057
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
557 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front will continue to ease south into the area today,
with north to northeast winds around 10kt or less behind it.  A
dry atmosphere will result in VFR sky conditions prevailing
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

A couple of upper level low pressure areas are consolidating
across the Great Lakes and will drop a cold front south into the
forecast area today. The front is forecast to be near the Pecos
River by this evening. High temperatures will cool several degrees
today behind the front but temperatures are still expected to
remain above normal with a decent amount of sunshine expected. The
front is forecast to settle south and west toward the Rio Grande
River and into the New Mexico mountains by Saturday morning. This
aggressive push of the front suggests that high temperatures will
remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation
is expected this weekend in the region. One exception could be
tonight and Saturday for northern portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains as a weak upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico weakens and moves northeast and clips that area
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms behind the
front.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area,
especially west of the Pecos River. The higher pops and higher QPF
output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the GFS given the
forecast of a negatively tilted upper level system. This upper
low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low level
easterly flow and abundant cloud cover should keep high
temperatures near to slightly below normal values Monday and
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through Thursday yet another potent upper level
storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting in a
continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday
across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A slower and
more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a higher chance of
convection with heavier rainfall possible. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected.

Kept Thursday night through next Friday night dry for now pending
better agreement on timing of this latter system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  51  70  53  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  53  73  55  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  51  74  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  85  61  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  55  80  54  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  50  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  49  71  49  /   0  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   88  43  76  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  53  73  53  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  73  57  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    90  55  78  53  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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408
FXUS64 KMAF 170853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of upper level low pressure areas are consolidating
across the Great Lakes and will drop a cold front south into the
forecast area today. The front is forecast to be near the Pecos
River by this evening. High temperatures will cool several degrees
today behind the front but temperatures are still expected to
remain above normal with a decent amount of sunshine expected. The
front is forecast to settle south and west toward the Rio Grande
River and into the New Mexico mountains by Saturday morning. This
aggressive push of the front suggests that high temperatures will
remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation
is expected this weekend in the region. One exception could be
tonight and Saturday for northern portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains as a weak upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico weakens and moves northeast and clips that area
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms behind the
front.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area,
especially west of the Pecos River. The higher pops and higher QPF
output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the GFS given the
forecast of a negatively tilted upper level system. This upper
low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low level
easterly flow and abundant cloud cover should keep high
temperatures near to slightly below normal values Monday and
Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through Thursday yet another potent upper level
storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting in a
continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday
across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A slower and
more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a higher chance of
convection with heavier rainfall possible. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected.

Kept Thursday night through next Friday night dry for now pending
better agreement on timing of this latter system.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  51  70  53  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  53  73  55  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  51  74  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  85  61  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  55  80  54  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  50  69  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  49  71  49  /   0  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   88  43  76  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  53  73  53  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  73  57  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    90  55  78  53  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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815
FXUS64 KMAF 170459
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.  A cold front will move into the
area this morning, but will mainly provide a wind shift at most
terminals with speeds remaining less the 15kt.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a
ridge of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather
patterns. Expect clear skies and generally light and variable
winds to continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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004
FXUS64 KMAF 162319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable through the overnight period.  A cold front will
move through the area tomorrow morning bringing winds out of the
northeast.  Some gusts may occur with the cold front but otherwise
winds are expected to be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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822
FXUS64 KMAF 162006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  51  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  83  53  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                52  83  54  72  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  93  58  83  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  94  57  81  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  83  53  69  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   51  79  49  70  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   44  88  45  79  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  84  53  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    52  89  55  78  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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612
FXUS64 KMAF 161728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail thru the night. W-NW winds ahead of a
front today will turn back to the SW this evening before turning N
toward morning as a weak cold front passes through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and much
above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough with low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result in near
record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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162
FXUS64 KMAF 161109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and much
above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough with low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result in near
record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  51  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  53  86  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  49  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  59  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  60  84  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   92  49  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  44  89  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  52  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  54  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  50  90  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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423
FXUS64 KMAF 160914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and
much above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough
with low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result
in near record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  51  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  53  86  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  49  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  59  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  60  84  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   92  49  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  44  89  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  52  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  54  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  50  90  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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645
FXUS64 KMAF 160503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

High clouds will begin to spread over the region today, but
conditions will remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2014/

An upper ridge along with sfc high pressure will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the region. Cool temperatures at night
will transition to very warm afternoons. A sfc trough will develop
over the TX Panhandle tomorrow inducing downsloping, southwesterly
winds across the area. This will give temperatures a boost to near
record territory. The record high for Oct 16th for Midland Intl is
92 degrees set in 2003. The current forecast keeps temperatures
near 90 across the Permian Basin with mid 90`s possible in the Trans
Pecos region.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes Region
helping to send a weak, backdoor cold front into the area Friday
morning. Temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees, but still
remain above normal into the weekend. Attention then turns to a
trough expected to dig along the West Coast this weekend. This
trough is expected to weaken as it makes its way across northern
Mexico, but should help to increase rain chances over our area. PoPs
have been increased for the beginning of next week and temps have
been lowered slightly given the extra cloud cover.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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