Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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109
FXUS64 KMAF 051724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve and skies
should be mostly sunny this afternoon with elevated southwest to
west winds. VFR conditions are expected through the period after
conditions improve this afternoon. A cold front will move into
the area tonight/Tuesday morning with elevated and gusty northerly
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 910 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire, and to
lower PoPs and sky coverage over the eastern zones.

DISCUSSION...

An upper low southeast of the Big Bend this morning will continue to
lift off to the northeast.  This will allow wraparound precipitation
over the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
region to wane, as evidenced in down trending radar returns and
warming cloud tops on Infrared Satellite Imagery.  Considering all
this, will lower PoPs over the eastern zones and allow the rest
of the Winter Weather Advisory to expire.  Freezing fog along the
Pecos River in southeastern New Mexico will last at least another
hour as sunshine and warming temperatures will dissipate the fog.
Aside from adjusting PoPs down, decreased cloud cover over the
east also. An update to the forecast will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big
Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile IR imagery continues to show cooling clouds tops across
the Big Bend area and 7h temps/85-5h thickness are supportive of
6500 ft snow levels in the Chinati/Chisos Mtns, higher in the
Davis. Between 10 PM Sun-3 AM Mon .28" of rain had fallen at the
Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the
higher elevations. By 12Z snow levels will have a chance to fall
to as low as 5500 ft in the Chisos Mtns and right around 6000 ft
in the Glass Mtns, but precip will tend to be decreasing around
then. The Davis Mtns still look to be the least favored of the
mtns to get snow, but above 7000 ft is it thought to be snowing
there, webcams are no help this morning. We will opt to continue
advisory, but will raise snow levels for the Davis Mtns. Otherwise
this precip shield will have trouble making it N of I-20 and we
will continue to a show a sharp PoP gradient and trend PoPs down
on the nrn side of the gradient btwn 12Z-18Z with little if any
precip after 18Z. High temps today from the U50s-M60s. A cold
front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so
todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. The main "cold show" will
premier Wed afternoon across the N and into areas S of I20 late
afternoon/evening. NAM12 continues to be quickest and ECMWF the
slowest. We tend to prefer the earlier arrival solutions. Post
frontal MSLP gradients are tight and windy conditions will be
favored 00Z-09Z/Thur for areas N of I20 and 03Z-12Z/Thur S of I20.
There continues to be potential for wintry wx 06Z-18Z/Thur along
and either side of the I10 corridor including the I10-20 Split,
Davis Mtns and Ft Stockton areas. There is still model variability
but GFS/NAM12 are adamant that precip will occur. With a minor
shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture
source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming
more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact
S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
For we will address this in a SPS and will start to include snow
in the forecast. We will also eventually issue an NPW for a "Hard
Freeze" for areas that have yet to have one and this will probably
be Thur AM, although Fri AM will be colder. High temps mostly in
30s Thur and 40s Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

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