Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 121506

1006 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015


KMAF 12Z RAOB and latest NAM suggest afternoon temps may climb a
degree or two high than forecast, before convection develops and
cools things down. KMAF sounding depicts a very unstable pre-storm
environment, w/sbcapes in excess of 3000 J/kg, w/mid-lvl LR`s
approaching 8C/km. This, and given wet-bulb zero heights of ~ 8
kft, will favor conditions for hail. PWAT came in at 0.90", about
200% of normal, and the NAM increases it to 1.3" by 00Z Monday,
which is about the climatological maximum. Thus, heavy
rainfall/flash flooding will also be a threat. We`ll do a quick
update to raise afternoon temps, and adjust other parameters as
necessary. We see no reason to change wx/POP/QPF grids attm.
Updates out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

MVFR CIGs made a brief appearance at MAF and though it is not
on station as of this TAF issuance, it is in the area as seen at
HOB so will keep TEMPO in the forecast through 15Z before
improving conditions to VFR the remainder of the TAF period. Still
expecting rain showers this afternoon and a few of the heavier
could brief reduce conditions to MVFR but will leave this out of
the TAF for now. Also a chance for TS after 18Z but will likely
have to handle this with an AMD as coverage will be spotty.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to


ANDREWS TX                 82  52  66  48  /  40  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              82  54  67  54  /  40  50  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                80  51  67  47  /  30  40  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  81  58  79  59  /  50  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  52  73  52  /  50  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  46  59  45  /  30  30  60  20
HOBBS NM                   80  49  62  46  /  30  40  70  40
MARFA TX                   72  44  64  41  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  69  50  /  50  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  82  53  68  51  /  50  30  50  40
WINK TX                    80  51  70  51  /  40  20  50  30






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