Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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612
FXUS64 KMAF 141105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light southeast winds and VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the area for the foreseeable future
but the center of this ridge will shift west the next couple of
days.  This should set up NW flow over the region and may allow
shortwaves to track across the area and bring some much needed rain.
Overall expect temperatures to remain warm at or above seasonal
averages.

There have been storms over the mountains much of the week but
yesterday the coverage of afternoon storms over the higher elevations
was much less.  Went ahead and continued the mention of isolated
storms from the Guadalupe Mtns to Alpine.  Also upped the pops
slightly Friday afternoon/evening and again on Saturday across the
Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and northern Brewster county as
model qpf continues to develop decent amounts of precip over these
areas.  Will be losing easterly upslope flow that helps develop
precip but will have a surface trough setting up over the western
CWA that may help focus convection.  Met continues to be wetter
than Mav giving chance pops at CNM Friday night so have bumped up
pops there slightly.  On Saturday a shortwave may bring storms to
the northern CWA on as it rotates around the east side of the
ridge.  Eta maintains a stronger shortwave than other models as it
moves south which is why its also developing more precip/higher
pops.  Low pops continue into next week across the west but rain
chances do not look favorable for the eastern half of the area.

Have reached mid August and have started what is normally a steady
decline of high temps into September.  Guidance not in agreement as
to which of the next few days will be hotter but 850mb temps remain
high.  Much will depend if rain and clouds develop Saturday so have kept
temps warm Friday and Saturday. Should see a few 100s across Pecos and
Rio Grande Valleys.

In the extended the sub tropical ridge continues to remain over the
region through next week so expecting little day to day change in wx.
May get a slight decrease in temps in the extended as heights fall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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