Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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702
FXUS64 KMAF 221724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will be westerly this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph and
gusty. By sunset winds should diminish to less than 10 mph. There
is some chance that some patchy fog could form toward sunrise
Monday but confidence was not high enough at this time to mention.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have slowly moved east with fog developing on the edge
of the cloud deck. Low vsbys due to fog will continue until the
sun burns it off later this morning. A few terminals may lower to
a mile or less, but in general vsbys will be around 3-5 miles.
Westerly winds will kick in around 22/16Z with VFR conditions
returning this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east of
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  82  50  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  84  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                45  85  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  53  85  56  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  51  74  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  82  47  78  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  78  40  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  83  51  82  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  82  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  85  47  82  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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