Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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351
FXUS64 KMAF 050841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Convection is persisting over the northern third of the forecast
area early this morning, although allowed the Tornado Watch to
expire at 05/07Z since instability waned and storms were definitely
not as organized as earlier.  Expect most of this convection to move
off to the north and the east of the County Warning Area by 05/12Z,
so will not mettle with the current configuration or duration of the
Flash Flood Watch.  A cutoff low currently over Arizona is progged
to open and eject northeastward over new Mexico today and tonight.
There is still a fairly potent shortwave trough rounding the base of
this upper low, so more thunderstorms will be possible later today,
just how much coverage being the question of the day.  Despite the
mentioned shortwave trough, a dry slot will jut northeastward over
the region along with it, so precipitable water will be on the
decrease, and the dryline will move eastward during the day.
Therefore, have reconfigured PoPs, geared mainly for this afternoon
when the atmosphere will have had a chance to recover.  The eastern
Permian Basin into the Lower trans Pecos appear to be the most
likely areas for convective development this afternoon.  Instability
will be on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km Bulk Shear
of 40 to 50kt should be enough for a few severe thunderstorms along
the dryline, while mid level lapse rates struggling to surpass 7
C/Km may be somewhat of a detriment.  Will include mention of a few
severe storms in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, along with locally
heavy rainfall.

The dryline will remain over the region as another ua trough drops
south along the west coast to replace the one to eject today.
Therefore, have kept thunderstorm chances in the forecast through
the week due to a series of shortwave troughs ejecting northeastward
over the region within southwest flow aloft.  More severe
thunderstorms will be possible, but will have to pin down which days
later this week when we are a little closer to those time frames.
Temperatures will rise above normal by midweek, and stay there
through week/s end before dropping back a bit Saturday and Sunday as
the next ua trough ejects much in the same manner as the current
one.  There are indications yet another ua trough may move across
the southwest/southern ConUS next week.  Will have to wait to see
how feasible this is in a few days when models hone in on one
solution or another.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  61  84  63  /  20  20  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              82  65  84  66  /  50  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                81  53  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  86  67  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  61  86  63  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  53  79  55  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  55  82  57  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   77  44  82  46  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  64  84  65  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  82  63  84  65  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    85  59  87  61  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

67

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