Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 030820
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RICH MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS MOVING E TODAY AND BY 00Z/TUE WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO THE GDP MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF NW
FLOW ALOFT (ALBEIT WEAK) AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (SEEN IN 5H
HEIGHT/VORTICITY) CO-LOCATED WITH SAID MOIST AXIS FAVORS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND INVOF OF SAID FEATURES, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z. MOS GUIDANCE (MORESO MET) IS SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TYPE POPS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING FROM DAVIS/GDP MTNS-SE NM-PB. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, INCLUDING MENTION OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN (PER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW) AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WHICH WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FROM GDP MTNS-SE
NM. SAID MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TUE AND CHANCE POPS
WILL ALSO FOCUS FARTHER S, GENERALLY DAVIS MTNS-LOWER TRANS PECOS-
SRN PB. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST DIFFICULT, BUT
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED. IF NOTHING ELSE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS/PRECIP COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW HELP TO TAKE
EDGE OF ON UNSEASONABLY HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY WED HIGH TEMPS
RAPIDLY RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CATEGORY AND WILL EASILY PERSIST
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH 7H TEMPS OF 15-17C (+1 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS) UNDERNEATH SUPPRESSING PRESENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WED THRU WEEKEND WILL BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  76  /  10  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  99  72  /  40  40  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  77  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  74  98  75  /  10  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  69  91  72  /  50  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  96  70  /  30  40  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  63  88  63  /  40  20  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        98  74  99  75  /  10  30  20  10
ODESSA TX                      97  75  99  76  /  10  30  20  10
WINK TX                       101  75 101  76  /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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