Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 191241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
741 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and Reagan to the Flash
Flood Watch through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex is currently moving across the
forecast area accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms.  One hour rainfall totals are topping out in the 1-2
inch range with the embedded thunderstorms.  Many areas being
affected by the heavy rainfall right now have had heavy rainfall in
the last 24-36 hours, although it has been spotty further south.
Since the 19/12Z KMAF sounding had a precipitable water of 1.81,
which is over 3 standard deviations above normal, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are definitely a continuing threat today and tonight.
The showers and thunderstorms on radar are progressing to the
east/southeast, so have decided to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and
Reagan to the Flash Flood Watch.  Have increased PoPs and
increased rainfall amounts in the forecast.  We may need to extend
the Watch further south later today since the remnants of Odile
appear to be moving eastward over the area, as opposed to
northeast as previous models suggested.  Stay tuned.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  / 100  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  / 100  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  80  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  / 100  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  / 100  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  / 100  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  / 100  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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