Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 262334

534 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

See aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Light wly winds
thru night.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015/


Above normal temperatures are being seen this afternoon and
westerly upper level flow will continue this trend through
Wednesday. Attention remains focused on an upper level low moving
into northwestern Mexico bringing precipitation to the area
beginning late Thursday. Initially an upper trough moving into the
Central Plains will push a weak cold front south early Thursday,
but it is the upper level low farther west that will provide the
precipitation. Models continue to show a very good chance for rain
starting out west on Friday, centered around Midland Friday night,
with highest rain chances shifting east on Saturday.

The precipitation type remains the biggest uncertainty in this
forecast. The upper low becomes disconnected from the northern
stream westerlies thus is not able to tap into colder air from
Canada. Evaporational cooling will chill the air some but forecast
soundings show it will be a borderline rain/snow/sleet event. The
best chance for wintry precipitation will be in the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains as well as southeast New Mexico and the
northwestern Permian Basin. Still not expecting much accumulations
due to the marginal temperatures and this system may be much like
our most recent one where most melted upon hitting the ground. The
biggest concern may actually be rainfall amounts as most models
are showing one to two inches of rainfall is possible perhaps
creating minor flooding issues. Rainfall amounts will largely
depend on the progression of the upper low and models are
notoriously bad at progging the movement of cutoff lows along the
U.S./Mexico border. Fortunately there are still several days
before this system impacts our area.






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