Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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626
FXUS64 KMAF 251135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At isolated locations the temp/dwpnt spreads are 0-1, but most
place area 2-4 with no signs of fog or low clouds attm. Sounding
data is inconsistent and based on trends light fog with brief
window of IFR CIGS seems appropriate mainly at MAF/HOB. Any
fog/CIGS that do form will burn off quickly with little in the way
of winds thru the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Another clear, cool morning is on tap today, though we do not
expect to see a repeat of the dense fog experienced the last two
mornings. Boundary layer moisture has decreased, and at this time,
temperature-dewpoint spreads across the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are still in the 4-7 degree
range. Some shallow, light, patchy fog may develop in the hours
around daybreak, but it should not cause the problems nor
visibility restrictions of the past two days, and should be quick
to burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely today
after a cool morning, as high pressure and upper level ridging
continue to develop over New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today
should be at least a degree or two warmer than yesterday for all
locations, with low to middle 80s across higher elevations, upper
80s elsewhere, and near 90 degrees in the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande Valley. The warm weather will stick around through Monday,
though Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the near-term, with
near record high temperatures currently forecast.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the weather pattern moving into next week, and thus,
not many changes were made to the going forecast through the
extended. The ridge of high pressure which will dominate sensible
weather across our area this weekend will gradually flatten and
shift to the east ahead of a developing Pacific trough.  This trough
will progress through the central CONUS, accompanied by a cold front
progged to move through the area early on Tuesday. While the front
will be dry, it will serve to reduce temperatures closer to seasonal
normals for midweek.

A secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough will
move through the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and
while the GFS and ECMWF both indicate some light QPF associated
with this feature, the trend has been for the precipitation to
shift further south and east. Have currently maintained the low
PoPs for this time frame, though confidence is beginning to wane
for measurable precipitation over southeastern zones next week.
Given the good agreement and model continuity displayed by the GFS
and ECMWF, have followed those modeled trends for the pattern
evolution next week. However, it does bear mentioning that the 00Z
and 06Z runs of the NAM, the first to capture the upcoming front,
indicate a slower FROPA, as well as the chance for some
precipitation along the front as it moves through the area Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. However, will wait for the NAM to
come more in line with other guidance before making any sweeping
changes. Otherwise, beyond midweek, another ridge looks to develop
over the southwestern CONUS, which would mean dry weather for the
end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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