Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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284
FXUS64 KMAF 261128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers are ongoing this morning, though have only
included -RA mention at FST and PEQ where precipitation looks to
be more persistent. VFR conditions are expected to continue at
CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF, with prevailing VFR expected at PEQ by
18Z, though ongoing rain and perhaps a thunderstorm could maintain
MVFR/IFR conditions at FST as late as 27/00Z. Northeast winds will
continue, with gusts diminishing this afternoon, and light winds
expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low INVOF Baja Calif with
rich moisture still in place to the e with diffluent flow
aloft across the Trans Pecos. Isentropic lift is still ongoing
across the CWFA and with such rich moisture being lifted
scattered -SHRA are persisting. There is still some mid level
lift too, but the lack of instability as seen thru 7h-5h LRs of
5.5 C/KM is precluding deeper convection. Referenced lift will
persist and passing -SHRA will remain in the forecast across most
of the area through 18Z or so. Radar does show better SHRA/embedded
isold TSRA SE of Terrell Co and they are moving NW. As such
moderate-heavy SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the Lower Trans
Pecos this morning. Highest PoPs (sct-likely) will be oriented
along the mtns extending SE into the Lower Trans Pecos. Surface
MSLP gradient will be tightest S of the Pecos River where breezy
to briefly windy conditions are possible today. Farther N gusty
winds this morning will give way to decreasing winds later in the
afternoon. 85h winds are still increasing and high winds have
recently started thru GDP Pass and thus the warning will remain
in effect. Even though clouds will lift some thru the day
(especially N of I-20) they will mostly remain and with surface
high pressure today`s high temperatures will remain well below
normal, mostly in the 60s, but 50s across parts of the Trans
Pecos. A few -SHRA may continue Mon night/Tue AM across the Trans
Pecos, dry elsewhere. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Tue
with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer, still well below normal.
Mid level ridging will increase Wed and temperatures will increase
closer to normal, highs mostly N80 and moreso Thur/Fri. Increased
westerly flow aloft next weekend will aid in lee trof/thermal ridge
development supporting the continuation of a warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  53  75  55 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       64  54  72  55 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         67  57  72  60 /  80  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  53  70  57 /  70  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  48  65  54 /  50  20  20  10
Hobbs                          67  53  73  54 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          57  51  66  53 /  60  50  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         66  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           65  55  74  57 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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