Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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709
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Strong westerly winds are beginning to subside this evening.
Intense cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains Saturday will lead
to strong and damaging winds over a good part of the area. Expect
winds to really pick up by late morning with gusts over 40 kts
likely at all terminals by afternoon. Could see some BLDU and a
few SHRA but VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central
Plains...only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and
move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over
the next 24 hours.  This portends a significant wind event Saturday
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  The NAM12 forecasts a
potent mtn wave signature thru Saturday night, which is pretty much a
given for this pattern.  Very strong westerlies are forecast to
round the base of the trough Saturday.  NAM buffer soundings for
KMAF mix out Saturday afternoon to 750mb, where ~ 50kt winds are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 725mb...w/~ 45kt winds.
Consequently, MOS numbers reflect this, w/the tamer MET guidance
forecasting high winds for most of the CWA.  H7 height gradients
tighten up to 60m/120nm, lending legitimacy to a very windy day.
What`s more, the sfc pressure gradient is forecast to tighten
considerably Saturday night as the sfc trough passes to the NE, so
windy conditions could carry into the overnight hours as well.  The
only parameter that could spoil these high winds would be an
expected increase in cloud cover Saturday to inhibit mixing.  For
now, confidence is high in at least warning criteria being met
Saturday over the western zones, with a sizable chunk of the central
FA meeting advisory conditions.  If anything, winds will be stronger
on Saturday, and we`ll let the mid shift crew expand all this
further east (and into Saturday night) if necessary.

Otherwise, chances of rain and even an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible Saturday, but otherwise the forecast looks dry.  An upper
ridge follows the trough, w/temps Monday afternoon climbing into the
70s most locations...before a series of dry fronts bring temps to
below normal Wednesday into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  65  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  59  39  58 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                         46  71  46  68 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  66  42  62 /  10  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  31  50 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          42  56  38  59 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          35  57  31  56 /  10  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  42  60 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         44  59  41  60 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           44  59  40  61 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/29

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