Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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991
FXUS64 KMAF 012349
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Currently have some scattered showers with
a few isolated thunderstorms just west of CNM and PEQ. Confidence in
TS affecting PEQ and CNM too low to include mention attm but will
continue to monitor current trends and amend if needed. Gusty SE
winds through late evening then S winds aob 10kt through
early Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
We are getting to the summer doldrums which means high pressure
is the dominant weather feature. All models are showing an upper
high either overhead or very close by giving us hot and mostly dry
weather with the exception of a few storms mainly over the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains.

Light west winds in the mid levels will start the warming trend
tomorrow but the heat really begins Sunday with the arrival of
594+ dm 500 mb heights. A weak cold front will move into the
northern Permian Basin Sunday but will not advance farther south
than around Lamesa before stalling. Heating ahead of the front
will send highs into the 100s across much of the area, though
still holding below Heat Advisory criteria. The high will remain
through at least Tuesday before shifting slightly east allowing
for a return of the light easterly flow. This will increase
moisture and decrease temps slightly toward the end of the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  96  77 101 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       75  97  72 103 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         76  99  77 103 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  75  96  76 103 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  89  69  91 /  40  30  20  10
Hobbs                          73  96  71  98 /  10  20  20   0
Marfa                          67  86  66  93 /  30  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  76 103 /   0  20  20  10
Odessa                         75  97  76 103 /   0  20  20  10
Wink                           78  99  75 105 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/33
034
FXUS64 KMAF 011926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
We are getting to the summer doldrums which means high pressure
is the dominant weather feature. All models are showing an upper
high either overhead or very close by giving us hot and mostly dry
weather with the exception of a few storms mainly over the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains.

Light west winds in the mid levels will start the warming trend
tomorrow but the heat really begins Sunday with the arrival of
594+ dm 500 mb heights. A weak cold front will move into the
northern Permian Basin Sunday but will not advance farther south
than around Lamesa before stalling. Heating ahead of the front
will send highs into the 100s across much of the area, though
still holding below Heat Advisory criteria. The high will remain
through at least Tuesday before shifting slightly east allowing
for a return of the light easterly flow. This will increase
moisture and decrease temps slightly toward the end of the week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  96  77 101 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       75  97  72 103 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         76  99  77 103 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  75  96  76 103 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  89  69  91 /  40  30  20  10
Hobbs                          73  96  71  98 /  10  20  20   0
Marfa                          67  86  66  93 /  30  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  76 103 /   0  20  20  10
Odessa                         75  97  76 103 /   0  20  20  10
Wink                           78  99  75 105 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
479
FXUS64 KMAF 011718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An approaching upper level
storm system from the southern Rockies will spark at least isolated
thunderstorms across the mountains this afternoon and tonight.
Some of these storms could move eastward this evening and
overnight into the southeast New Mexico Plains to the western
Permian Basin of west Texas. Confidence was not yet enough to
mention tsra at any of the terminals except KCNM. Will insert
a PROB 30 group for VFR tsra with gusty and variable winds at KCNM
in the 03z to 09z Saturday time frame. Will continue to monitor.
Generally southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph is expected with some
higher gusts through this evening.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer
to the higher terrain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper
low is over Arizona.  This upper pattern has put the CWA under
northerly to westerly flow aloft.  Temperatures this afternoon will
be near normal with highs in the 90s across most areas.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.

As the upper low/shortwave trough over Arizona moves eastward,
chances of rain and thunderstorms will increase across the area
Friday night into Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday are expected
to warm up by a couple of degrees.  The shortwave will move over
Oklahoma on Sunday with precipitation chances across the area
beginning to decrease.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm
up into the triple digits for parts of the Permian Basin.

The upper ridge will remain over the region through next week but
will be somewhat flattened out by upper troughs moving over the
northern part of the country.  A slight chance of rain and storms
will remain present through the extended forecast but will mostly
remain across western areas and the higher terrain.  Temperatures
will be near or in the triple digits for the first part of the week
across the Permian Basin then cool into the mid to upper 90s by the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  75 100 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       74  98  72 100 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         74  98  76 100 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  73  97  75 102 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  88  70  92 /  40  30  20  20
Hobbs                          70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          65  89  64  92 /  30  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  75 101 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         74  97  75 101 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           75  99  74 103 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
685
FXUS64 KMAF 010859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer
to the higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper
low is over Arizona.  This upper pattern has put the CWA under
northerly to westerly flow aloft.  Temperatures this afternoon will
be near normal with highs in the 90s across most areas.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.

As the upper low/shortwave trough over Arizona moves eastward,
chances of rain and thunderstorms will increase across the area
Friday night into Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday are expected
to warm up by a couple of degrees.  The shortwave will move over
Oklahoma on Sunday with precipitation chances across the area
beginning to decrease.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm
up into the triple digits for parts of the Permian Basin.

The upper ridge will remain over the region through next week but
will be somewhat flattened out by upper troughs moving over the
northern part of the country.  A slight chance of rain and storms
will remain present through the extended forecast but will mostly
remain across western areas and the higher terrain.  Temperatures
will be near or in the triple digits for the first part of the week
across the Permian Basin then cool into the mid to upper 90s by the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  73  96  75 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       96  74  98  72 /  20  30  20  20
Dryden                         97  74  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  73  97  75 /  10  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 88  66  88  70 /  20  40  30  20
Hobbs                          94  70  96  71 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          89  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           95  74  97  75 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                         95  74  97  75 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           98  75  99  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
676
FXUS64 KMAF 010851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region and an upper
low is over Arizona.  This upper pattern has put the CWA under
northerly to westerly flow aloft.  Temperatures this afternoon will
be near normal with highs in the 90s across most areas.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible today across the higher terrain and areas
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos.

As the upper low/shortwave trough over Arizona moves eastward,
chances of rain and thunderstorms will increase across the area
Friday night into Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday are expected
to warm up by a couple of degrees.  The shortwave will move over
Oklahoma on Sunday with precipitation chances across the area
beginning to decrease.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm
up into the triple digits for parts of the Permian Basin.

The upper ridge will remain over the region through next week but
will be somewhat flattened out by upper troughs moving over the
northern part of the country.  A slight chance of rain and storms
will remain present through the extended forecast but will mostly
remain across western areas and the higher terrain.  Temperatures
will be near or in the triple digits for the first part of the week
across the Permian Basin then cool into the mid to upper 90s by the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  73  96  75 /   0  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       96  74  98  72 /  20  30  20  20
Dryden                         97  74  98  76 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  73  97  75 /  10  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 88  66  88  70 /  20  40  30  20
Hobbs                          94  70  96  71 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          89  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           95  74  97  75 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                         95  74  97  75 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           98  75  99  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
090
FXUS64 KMAF 010521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
3.5-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be at KCNM, closer
to the higher terrain.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  73  95  76 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       95  71  98  72 /  10  30  20  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  77 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  95  72  99  73 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  67  90  70 /  10  40  30  20
Hobbs                          94  70  95  71 /   0  10  30  20
Marfa                          86  63  89  65 /  20  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           95  73  96  75 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                         95  74  96  76 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           98  76 100  75 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
893
FXUS64 KMAF 302311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  95  71  98 /   0  10  30  20
Dryden                         74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  72  99 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                          67  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          62  86  63  89 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
179
FXUS64 KMAF 301903
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  95  71  98 /   0  10  30  20
Dryden                         74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  72  99 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                          67  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          62  86  63  89 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12
187
FXUS64 KMAF 301704
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
368
FXUS64 KMAF 301113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of a generally southeast direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
260
FXUS64 KMAF 300902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
715
FXUS64 KMAF 300507
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of a generally southeast direction.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       66  96  71  97 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         71  96  72  98 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  96  72  96 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          65  94  68  95 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                          62  88  64  89 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  71  96 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  73  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
577
FXUS64 KMAF 292248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds
will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph, with occasional
gusts.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  95  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         70  97  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  89  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          66  93  65  94 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          60  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           66  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         68  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           67  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44
214
FXUS64 KMAF 291950
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  95  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         70  97  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  89  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          66  93  65  94 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          60  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           66  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         68  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           67  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44
629
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1136 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight.
Thunderstorms will be possible, but mainly over the higher terrain
to the west and south of area terminals.  An outflow boundary may
move into northern reaches of the forecast area this afternoon, but
probability is too low to include TSRA at KHOB or KMAF.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
424
FXUS64 KMAF 291122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and will become easterly to southeasterly this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
944
FXUS64 KMAF 290848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
998
FXUS64 KMAF 290604
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...The MCS dropping south has weakened. Therefore...have
cleared the northern counties in collaboration with SPC from
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #308. Grids have been updated.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       93  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  70  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  87  63 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         92  71  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           93  70  95  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/33
817
FXUS64 KMAF 290444
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  91  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  84  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         70  92  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
183
FXUS64 KMAF 290232 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected overall. Will have a few storms near MAF
through 01z that could have gusty outflows with blowing dust
producing brief MVFR vsbys.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  91  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  84  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         70  92  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
938
FXUS64 KMAF 282344
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
644 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected overall. Will have a few storms near MAF
through 01z that could have gusty outflows with blowing dust
producing brief MVFR vsbys.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  90  69 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  68  93  69 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  73  95  74 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  90  69  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  85  66 /  40  20  10  10
Hobbs                          88  65  91  66 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  63  84  62 /  50  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  69  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  70  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           92  69  93  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
819
FXUS64 KMAF 281849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  69  90 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  91  66  94 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  84  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         70  92  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                           69  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
814
FXUS64 KMAF 281659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight.  It appears
only isolated thunderstorms will be possible at any area terminals
this afternoon, but will include TSRA at KHOB, and perhaps KMAF, due
to a weak boundary moving west over these terminals.  There is an
outside chance MVFR ceilings could affect KFST or KMAF late tonight.
Since this is near the end of the forecast period will leave out for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  65  85  66 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  85  60 /  50  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  70  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
890
FXUS64 KMAF 281101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to remain light throughout the period with
primarily east to southeast winds this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area today so ceilings may
briefly go below VFR; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Satl imagery shows the
monsoon in full bloom with convection in the Sierra Madre
Occidental along the Chihuahua/Sonora border and the Sonoran
Desert in Mexico. Satl imagery is also hinting at a subtle
circulation south of Big Bend along the Chihuahua/Coahuila border.
KMAF radar is showing scattered light showers along and south/
southwest of the Trans Pecos moving westward.

Models are in general agreement placing the subtropical ridge over
the four corners region. This will bring a deep layer easterly
flow to the area with the best chance of convection today along
the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis Mtns. The high resolution HRRR and
RAP13 models do bring convection into the Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin from the east/northeast early this aftn as a weak
vort max rotates in. Have kept slt chc pops today in the Plains.
With the clouds and possible convection temps will be several
degrees below normal.

Models are in general agreement in slowly building the ridge
south and east the remainder of the week and thru the weekend.
This will keep the majority...if not all...of the convection along
the Western and Southern Mtns with weak moist upslope flow and
intense heating. The H85 thermal ridge will also shift east into
NM and West TX. This will bring temps close to the century mark
over the weekend into early next week across the Permian Basin/
Low Rolling Plains...close to 105 in the Trans Pecos/Rio Grande
Valley...and the 90s in the mtns.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  65  85  66 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  85  60 /  50  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  70  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
011
FXUS64 KMAF 280911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...Satl imagery shows the
monsoon in full bloom with convection in the Sierra Madre
Occidental along the Chihuahua/Sonora border and the Sonoran
Desert in Mexico. Satl imagery is also hinting at a subtle
circulation south of Big Bend along the Chihuahua/Coahuila border.
KMAF radar is showing scattered light showers along and south/
southwest of the Trans Pecos moving westward.

Models are in general agreement placing the subtropical ridge over
the four corners region. This will bring a deep layer easterly
flow to the area with the best chance of convection today along
the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis Mtns. The high resolution HRRR and
RAP13 models do bring convection into the Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin from the east/northeast early this aftn as a weak
vort max rotates in. Have kept slt chc pops today in the Plains.
With the clouds and possible convection temps will be several
degrees below normal.

Models are in general agreement in slowly building the ridge
south and east the remainder of the week and thru the weekend.
This will keep the majority...if not all...of the convection along
the Western and Southern Mtns with weak moist upslope flow and
intense heating. The H85 thermal ridge will also shift east into
NM and West TX. This will bring temps close to the century mark
over the weekend into early next week across the Permian Basin/
Low Rolling Plains...close to 105 in the Trans Pecos/Rio Grande
Valley...and the 90s in the mtns.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  92  71 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  65  85  66 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  67  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  85  60 /  50  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  70  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
973
FXUS64 KMAF 280513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to remain light throughout the period with
primarily southeast winds Tuesday afternoon. Some areas may
briefly experience low ceilings overnight otherwise VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
566
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers remain across the area but the coverage is too
sparse to place in the TAFs. Southeast winds and VFR conditions
will hold through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
456
FXUS64 KMAF 271857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain continues across parts of the area this afternoon as a
slow moving upper low shifts west of the Pecos River. Several
inches of rain fell across parts of Terrell county this morning
and some roads are impassable or washed out. PWATs near and east
of the low are about 1.5 to 1.8 inches so heavy rain and some
flooding will be a concern into tonight, especially along and west
of the Pecos River. The low weakens and moves into northern Mexico
tomorrow as an upper ridge attempts to build in from the
northwest. Increasing subsidence will cause a quick decrease in
precip coverage areawide by midweek, but isolated convection still
cannot be ruled out. The center of the ridge moves southeast
toward South Texas this weekend and may allow for some convection
across the mountains. Temperatures will climb back to normal by
midweek as moisture decreases somewhat. Guidance may be a little
high due to all the rain over the past few days so will stay on
the low side keeping highs generally below 100 for much of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  88  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       67  90  68  93 /  50  30  10  10
Dryden                         73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  89  69  91 /  30  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  65  86 /  40  40  10  10
Hobbs                          65  88  66  91 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          63  82  62  84 /  50  50  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  91  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         69  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           69  90  69  93 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
534
FXUS64 KMAF 271636
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1136 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have lifted somewhat with slowly warming temperatures,
so expect VFR conditions at most area terminals through tonight.
There will be a chance of showers, and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm or two, so will include RA with lower ceilings at most,
if not all, terminals through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

Sending a forecast update this morning to increase PoPs areawide
as the upper low and daytime heating continue to generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms. With PWATs over 1.5 inches,
some of these storms will have the potential to produce 2-3
inches of rain in an hour, so added heavy rain as well. Finally,
high temperatures were lowered several degrees due to the expected
cloud cover and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  92  71 /  40  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  67  93  68 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         87  72  96  75 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  85  69  93  70 /  70  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  84  65 /  30  30  20  10
Hobbs                          84  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          78  60  84  60 /  60  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           83  69  93  70 /  60  10  10  10
Odessa                         83  70  92  70 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                           83  68  95  71 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
680
FXUS64 KMAF 271435
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Sending a forecast update this morning to increase PoPs areawide
as the upper low and daytime heating continue to generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms. With PWATs over 1.5 inches,
some of these storms will have the potential to produce 2-3
inches of rain in an hour, so added heavy rain as well. Finally,
high temperatures were lowered several degrees due to the expected
cloud cover and rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  92  71 /  40  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  67  93  68 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         87  72  96  75 /  40  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  85  69  93  70 /  70  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  84  65 /  30  30  20  10
Hobbs                          84  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          78  60  84  60 /  60  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           83  69  93  70 /  60  10  10  10
Odessa                         83  70  92  70 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                           83  68  95  71 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
957
FXUS64 KMAF 271127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs this
morning and the potential for thunderstorms at different periods
throughout the TAF period. Currently have some light to moderate
showers across the southern Permian Basin early this morning with
some areas of MVFR cigs hanging around. It is possible that this
activity will intensify slightly and shift west throughout the day
but confidence is fairly low in this scenario at this time so will
not include mention of TSRA at any terminals and make adjustment
later if needed. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are expected to lift by mid
morning and all terminals will return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this
morning and is centered over the 4 corners region.  Upper low over
the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area
yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today.  An east coast
trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge
will remain entrenched over the west.

Rain and clouds kept temperatures well down yesterday with highs
mainly in the 80s.  Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly
increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week.  Can
still see readings at or above 100 along the Rio Grande each day.

Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z.  As of
early morning still have some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Permian Basin slowly drifting southward across the
Pecos River.  MAF reported 0.35 inch of rain yesterday which puts it
at nearly an inch above normal YTD.  Have the chance for additional
rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.  With PW in the
1.4 to 1.6 range locally heavy rain will be the main concern... will
continue to highlight in the HWO.  By Tuesday most of the precip
will have shifted west with the mountains again favored.  After that
things begin to dry out with only some rain around the edges of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       87  67  93  68 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  62  84  65 /  50  30  20  10
Hobbs                          86  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          80  60  84  60 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           91  68  95  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
732
FXUS64 KMAF 270822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic this
morning and is centered over the 4 corners region.  Upper low over
the region that brought heavy rain to some parts of the area
yesterday will continue to slowly drift west today.  An east coast
trough is expected to increase over the Eastern US but the ridge
will remain entrenched over the west.

Rain and clouds kept temperatures well down yesterday with highs
mainly in the 80s.  Temperatures should be warmer today and slowly
increase each day rising to the upper 90s by late in the week.  Can
still see readings at or above 100 along the Rio Grande each day.

Believe the upper low centered over Permian Basin as of 08z.  As of
early morning still have some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Permian Basin slowly drifting southward across the
Pecos River.  MAF reported 0.35 inch of rain yesterday which puts it
at nearly an inch above normal YTD.  Have the chance for additional
rain today mainly over/near the higher elevations.  With PW in the
1.4 to 1.6 range locally heavy rain will be the main concern... will
continue to highlight in the HWO.  By Tuesday most of the precip
will have shifted west with the mountains again favored.  After that
things begin to dry out with only some rain around the edges of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       87  67  93  68 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  69  93  70 /  30  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  62  84  65 /  50  30  20  10
Hobbs                          86  66  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
Marfa                          80  60  84  60 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           91  68  95  71 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
434
FXUS64 KMAF 270517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
thunderstorms at different periods throughout the TAF period.
Currently have showers near MAF and a few isolated thunderstorms
farther south of the terminal. Not expecting much more activity than
what is already out there so didn`t include mention in the TAFs.
Will continue to monitor trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm
chances will increase during the day but similar to Sunday, not
exactly clear on when and where this activity will develop. Will
keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if
needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  94  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  96  76  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  68  95  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          68  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  84  61  87 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         72  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/
684
FXUS64 KMAF 262328
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA and TS will continue, diminishing overnight before
increasing again around 12Z. Will be conservative with TS in the
TAFs and amend as necessary as timing any storm at a terminal will
be very difficult. VFR conditions should remain through the TAF
period except perhaps briefly MVFR in passing showers.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  92  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  88  68  94 /  40  40  20  10
Dryden                         73  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  92  68  95 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  64  86 /  40  50  30  20
Hobbs                          67  86  68  91 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                          66  81  61  84 /  40  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  71  95 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  92  72  94 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                           70  94  70  97 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
137
FXUS64 KMAF 261945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  92  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  88  68  94 /  40  40  20  10
Dryden                         73  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  92  68  95 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  64  86 /  40  50  30  20
Hobbs                          67  86  68  91 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                          66  81  61  84 /  40  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  71  95 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  92  72  94 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                           70  94  70  97 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44
267
FXUS64 KMAF 261643
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to adjust afternoon high temperatures and winds. The latest
Aviation Discussion is also below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Tutt low over the region will meander over the region through
the day today. Expect thunderstorms to become more common along
and east of the upper low axis, but also out west over the higher
terrain where good heating is ongoing to fuel thunderstorm
development within low level easterly upslope flow regime.
Some of the storms could produce strong winds, especially over the
heated higher terrain later this afternoon.  However heavy
rainfall, if not localized flash flooding, will be a concern due
to PWats near 1.5 inches and fairly slow moving thunderstorms
which could produce affect some areas more than once.  Have not
adjusted Pops, but have lowered afternoon high temperatures,
especially over the Permian Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread through this
afternoon, so have added TSRA to all area terminals generally
between 26/21Z and 27/03Z.  Gusty winds may occur with storms,
especially at KCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KFST where better heating is
expected to occur this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could last well
into the night, so additional TSRA may need to be added to some
terminals.  Ceilings and visibility could dip to MVFR with any
storms, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         90  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          87  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          88  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           87  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         88  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           93  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
793
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early this morning and thunderstorms at different
periods throughout the day today. Currently have persistent SE
winds across most locations with some weak showers and
thunderstorms SW of FST near the Davis Mountains. Looking at
current satellite data, it looks like the low clouds are moving NW
toward FST and MAF but still difficult to see due to extensive
mid/high level cloud shield across the area. Don`t think they`ll
reach FST but will affect MAF shortly. Will continue to monitor
trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase
during the day however not exactly clear on when and where this
activity will develop but think best chances for later this
morning or early afternoon will be at MAF. Will keep mention out
of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain
over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up
from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased
rain chances today into Monday. In the extended temperatures will
increase and precip chances will decrease.

Presidio and Rio Grande Village continue to be the hot locations
with 101 and 106 degrees on Saturday.  It should be noticeably
cooler today as 850mb temps cool and increased cloud cover limits
insulation. Stayed to the warm side of guidance... if it turns
out a little cooler then it will be pleasant. Temperatures climb
to above normal by late in the week.

This morning Have some storms moving up from Mexico across Del Rio
with some showers streaming across the northern edge of the CWA.
SE/upslope flow will help keep lower levels moist and help storms
develop over the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the
plains will be with the upper low.  Guidance pops have really come
up as models bring the low up into the Permian Basin... have
increased pops today through Monday.  Locally heavy rain will be the
main concern with these storms as MAF 00z sounding had PW of 1.2
inches with model soundings pushing it over 1.6 inches tonight.
By Monday the best precip chances should be over the higher
elevations with only a slight chance for the plains with precip only
skirting the area Monday night.  Only random low probability of
storms the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         96  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          89  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          86  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         93  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
340
FXUS64 KMAF 260839
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Arklatx this morning will shift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region Monday and remain
over the west the rest of the week. An upper low wandering up
from Mexico today and across the region will result in increased
rain chances today into Monday. In the extended temperatures will
increase and precip chances will decrease.

Presidio and Rio Grande Village continue to be the hot locations
with 101 and 106 degrees on Saturday.  It should be noticeably
cooler today as 850mb temps cool and increased cloud cover limits
insolation.  Stayed to the warm side of guidance... if it turns out
a little cooler then it will be pleasant.  Temperatures climb to
above normal by late in the week.

This morning Have some storms moving up from Mexico across Del Rio
with some showers streaming across the northern edge of the CWA.
SE/upslope flow will help keep lower levels moist and help storms
develop over the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the
plains will be with the upper low.  Guidance pops have really come
up as models bring the low up into the Permian Basin... have
increased pops today through Monday.  Locally heavy rain will be the
main concern with these storms as MAF 00z sounding had PW of 1.2
inches with model soundings pushing it over 1.6 inches tonight.
By Monday the best precip chances should be over the higher
elevations with only a slight chance for the plains with precip only
skirting the area Monday night.  Only random low probability of
storms the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  92  69 /  30  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  70  92  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         96  75  92  74 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  71  92  70 /  30  30  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  83  64 /  30  40  30  10
Hobbs                          89  67  90  66 /  30  40  30  10
Marfa                          86  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  93  70 /  30  40  10   0
Odessa                         93  71  93  71 /  30  40  20   0
Wink                           94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
240
FXUS64 KMAF 260530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low clouds early morning and thunderstorms at different periods
through Sunday. Currently have persistent SE winds across most
locations with some light rain showing up on radar just east of HOB.
Hard to tell where the low clouds are developing tonight given the
extensive mid/high level cloud shield across the area. For now,
kept mention of MVFR at MAF at around 09Z and added mention of low
cigs at HOB around 11Z. Will continue to monitor trends and amend
if needed. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday during the
day however not exactly clear on when and where this activity will
develop so will keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make
adjustments later if needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  93  69  90 /  20  10   0  20
Carlsbad                       70  94  67  93 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                         74  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  93  67  92 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  86  64  85 /  30  30  10  10
Hobbs                          66  91  67  90 /  30  20  10  20
Marfa                          62  87  61  85 /  30  40  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         71  94  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Wink                           71  95  70  93 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/
681
FXUS64 KMAF 252305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Persistence rules with VFR conditions likely prevailing. A few
storms have developed in the higher terrain and may get close to
KPEQ and KFST before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
860
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
303
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
138
FXUS64 KMAF 251726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the 25/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all area terminals
through 26/18Z. A few models are suggesting MVFR cigs developing
at KMAF and KFST in the 26/12-15Z time range, but will not include
at this time as confidence is around 1:5 that this will occur.
Otherwise look for gusty SE winds to persist through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
908
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
236
FXUS64 KMAF 250850
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
106
FXUS64 KMAF 250521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. SE winds 10-12kt sustained overnight
then gusts return by mid/late morning.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  93  71  91 /  10  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       72  96  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Dryden                         73  95  72  93 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  72  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  64  83 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          71  91  67  88 /  10  30  30  30
Marfa                          63  88  62  84 /  20  40  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           73  94  70  92 /  10  30  30  20
Odessa                         72  93  69  91 /  10  30  30  20
Wink                           74  96  70  93 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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