Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting MAF late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Today,
fairly light southerly winds in place as a few high clouds stream
overhead. Tonight, developing low level jet will increase moisture
from the SE and LIFR cigs are expected to reach MAF around 25/06Z or
so. Did not include mention at any other terminals however low cigs
may need to be added at INK. Otherwise, VFR will persist today at
all terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/

Westerly mid level flow will continue through Thanksgiving
bringing above normal temperatures to the entire area. An upper
level low will drop into the Great Basin region bringing a
dramatic change to the weather on Friday. Flow ahead of the low
will back from a southwesterly direction and pressure falls along
the Rockies will draw low level moisture back into southeastern
New Mexico increasing rain chances on Thursday. In fact dewpoints
may even reach the lower 60s in the eastern Permian Basin Thursday
which could allow for the possibility that some storms could
become severe or produce localized flash flooding.

The main weather concern is late Friday into Saturday with the
arrival of a strong cold front. All models show the upper low
holding to our west with southwest flow continuing to advect warm
mid level temperatures over the CWA. This is a classic freezing
rain setup IF temperatures drop below freezing, which is not at
all certain with the GFS holding to above freezing temps and the
ECMWF holding to below freezing temps for the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Friday night into Saturday. I believe the GFS
is too warm with its temperatures initially and parts of the
northern Permian Basin and Lea County stand a good chance of
seeing freezing rain. However rain falling through a warm
(+4 to +6C) 700mb layer may allow for latent heat release and
warm the boundary layer to above freezing, especially if the
precipitation becomes moderate to heavy as PWATs of 1-1.5"
suggest. Throw in the effects of an eastern Pacific tropical storm
moving into Mexico spreading more warm moisture into west Texas
and unfortunately this means confidence in the extent and amount
of any ice accumulations is still very low at this time. For this
forecast will continue to mention freezing rain in the forecast
but cannot emphasize impacts due to the high uncertainty in ice
amounts at this time.

By Sunday the low ejects east into the Central Plains bringing an
end to the precipitation. A return of westerly winds will cause a
slight warming trend early next though highs in the 50s will still
be a few degrees below normal.






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