Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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129
FXUS64 KMAF 261804
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Strong northeast winds have lingered through Guadalupe Pass early
this afternoon.  However, expect speeds to drop off in the next hour
or so below 40 mph sustained as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes, and surface pressure rises continue to decrease. Therefore,
have allowed the High Wind Warning to expire at 26/18Z.
A surface ridge over the region will linger here through Wednesday
and provide stable conditions along with below normal temps this
afternoon and Tuesday before readings rise to near normal levels
Wednesday.  Low level easterly flow and isentropic upglide in the
mid levels will keep a canopy of clouds over the area tonight and
Tuesday and provide enough lift for light rain, but mainly along and
south of Interstate 10, except also in the Guadalupe Mountains.
Will keep PoPs going tonight and Tuesday over the southern and
western reaches of the forecast area into Tuesday.  The cutoff low
is over the central Baja Peninsula this afternoon, but will lift
north into SoCal Wednesday before ejecting northeastward through the
Great Basin ahead of the next western CONUS upper trough.  Upper
ridging will take over across the region Tuesday and beyond, but the
above mentioned next upper trough will eventually suppress the upper
ridge southward this weekend.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly next weekend as an upper
trough approaches from the west.  In typical fashion, models are
already vacillating on the strengthen, depth and timing of this ua
trough.  It does appear we could see temperatures rise above normal
late next weekend into early next week, as a dryline forms over the
area.  The forecast will contain at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday over the higher terrain as
the upper ridge flattens.  PoPs will also be carried in the forecast
Sunday and Monday for the possibility of the dryline forming and
moving east across the area, perhaps on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light to moderate showers are expected to continue mainly
for areas along and south of the Pecos River through the overnight
period. Elevated and gusty northeast winds will become lighter
during the afternoon and become variable after sunset. There is a
chance of low ceilings and visibilities developing after sunset
especially for HOB, INK, FST, and PEQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  78  55  84 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       53  74  55  82 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         58  75  60  85 /  50  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  53  72  57  83 /  40  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  69  54  75 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          54  74  54  81 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          53  67  53  77 /  50  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           55  76  55  84 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         55  74  55  83 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           56  75  57  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67

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