Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 202335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015


Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.



Main focus this forecast period is a strong cold front that will
move through the area overnight. The front is progged to move
through KHOB around 07Z-08Z, progress south, and make it through
KFST by 10Z. Winds will shift to the north and gust to around
30-40KT behind the front, and while localized blowing dust is
possible, have not mentioned at any terminals. Winds will remain
gusty through mid afternoon Saturday, with gusts gradually
diminishing thereafter. VFR conditions will be the rule.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/

Nothing has changed from the previous forecast. A cold front
currently in northwestern Kansas will drop south overnight
arriving in northern Lea County around midnight and quickly moving
through the remainder of the CWA by sunrise. Pressures behind the
front will increase at a rate of 3mb/hr, causing northeast winds
to increase to 25 to 30mph tomorrow morning, and will be much
higher at Guadalupe Pass where winds may exceed 60 mph. These
winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and combined with strong
cold air advection do not expect winds to increase much off of
morning lows despite mostly clear skies.

High pressure will quickly settle over the area causing winds to
become light overnight. This combined with clear skies will be
optimal conditions for radiational cooling and the models have
been very consistent in showing this. Therefore have gone ahead
and upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Hard Freeze Warning meaning we
are expecting lows to drop down below 29 degrees. Many areas have
not even seen their first freeze so precautions for sensitive
plants and animals need to be made. Terrell County may be the
lone outlier with lows only reaching 29-32 degrees (light freeze),
but do not want to break up the NPW into another section for a
(light) Freeze Warning and thus kept it in with the other

Zonal flow returns early next week allowing temperatures to
slowly climb back above normal. A deep upper low will develop in
the western U.S. late next week backing upper flow from a more
southwesterly direction and drawing moisture back into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the low
late Wednesday into Thursday. The low will bring another strong
front south on Friday with the -SHRA/TS transitioning into -RA
behind the front. At this time it appears the precipitation behind
the front will remain in liquid form but cannot rule out the
chance for freezing or frozen precip Friday night. Fortunately we
have a week to monitor this situation.



NM...Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM MST Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


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