Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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763
FXUS64 KMAF 012255
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
455 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight at most of the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. However, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop late tonight and affect KHOB,
KMAF and KINK by 02/12Z, with tempo IFR ceilings expected Friday
morning. There will also be tempo MVFR visibility in fog at these
terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A glance out the window and at vis sat imagery shows a beautiful
fall day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/sfc obs
showing afternoon temps have warmed just a few degrees above-normal.
However, big changes are in store over the next 24-36 hours.  WV
imagery shows an upper-lvl trough digging south along the west
coast, w/models in good agreement in closing it off by 12Z Fri and
reaching the AZ/Mexico border by 00Z Saturday.  During this time, a
cold front will backdoor into the area Fri, and push SW into the FA
Fri night.  Large scale ascent ahead of the trough and weak
isentropic upglide is forecast to develop -RA along and behind the
front, w/chances increasing E-W Fri night.  As the trough digs
further SE into Sonora late Fri night, instability is forecast to
creep in from the SW, w/H7 LIs going negative over the SW zones
after 06Z Sat, and introducing isolated thunder into the mix.  This
instability is forecast to develop north and east during the day
Saturday, while cold air continues to advect in from the NE.
Forecast soundings over the Guadalupes get cold enough after 12Z
Saturday to introduce a rain or snow mention, w/the temp trace
riding the 0C isotherm from the warm nose to the sfc.  Soundings
suggest rain or snow thru at least 12Z Sunday, but accumulations
should stay out of advisory/warning criteria.  By late Saturday
night, soundings suggest a brief rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations of the Davis Mtns.  Friday night thru Saturday night,
high gap winds will be possible thru KGDP, and a watch has been
issued. Bottom line is that it is going to be a very wet and cold
weekend.

Trough will continue digging deep into Sonora, then Chihuahua, and
then eject to the NE thru the Big Bend Region Sunday night, before
precip chances taper off Monday.  Temps should stay well-blo normal
during this time, and are not expected to climb back to above-normal
until Tuesday.  However, another cold front is due in later in the
week to take things back blo normal, although long range models
differ on timing.  Grids stay generally dry after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  53  43  46 /   0  50  70  80
Carlsbad                       33  55  38  45 /   0  10  70  70
Dryden                         46  63  53  57 /   0  10  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  65  45  48 /   0  10  70  80
Guadalupe Pass                 40  53  34  42 /   0   0  60  70
Hobbs                          33  49  37  42 /   0  30  70  70
Marfa                          31  63  39  49 /   0   0  50  80
Midland Intl Airport           42  55  43  46 /   0  40  70  80
Odessa                         42  56  42  46 /   0  40  70  80
Wink                           38  60  43  48 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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