Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 180847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  49  74  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              82  52  78  51  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  48  77  47  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  54  88  57  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  53  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  47  72  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  46  73  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   73  36  73  41  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  51  78  49  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  51  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  50  80  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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