Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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898
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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