Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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612
FXUS64 KMAF 161728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail thru the night. W-NW winds ahead of a
front today will turn back to the SW this evening before turning N
toward morning as a weak cold front passes through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas during the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014/

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and much
above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough with low
level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result in near
record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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