Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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202
FXUS64 KMAF 231108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will increase this afternoon to around 15 kts before decreasing
around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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