Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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376
FXUS64 KMAF 051646
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Winds will back to the southeast and become gusty this
afternoon, with gusts lasting to 06/03Z at some sites before
diminishing.  VFR conditions will continue Friday morning at all
area terminals, but southeast winds will rise to 25kt sustained,
if not higher, with higher gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

Upper ridge over the Rockies this morning will build east today
resulting in warm and dry wx for the region. However the next
upper trough will move ashore the CA coast today becoming a cut
off low. This low will wobble east the next couple of days before
lifting northeast Sunday. This low may bring storms to the region
this weekend. High pressure and mild wx returns after that.

Currently have mostly clear skies this morning with some cirrus
drifting up from Mexico.  Airmass has dried out over the last 24
hours with surface dewpts down to the 20s west and 30s east... this
is expected to increase back to the 40s and 50s over the next couple
of days.  The wind should come back around to the south today as new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be above normal the next several
days with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s this week.  Some
locations along the Rio Grande may push 100.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
continue to develop the first precip out west on Friday then shift
east overnight and Saturday.  By Sunday most of the precip will be
pushed out of the area.  It looks like there will be a dryline to
focus convection on especially Saturday.  At this time not looking
like a big severe wx outbreak but there could be a few strong to
severe storms.  Next week some low pops skirt the eastern CWA but
nothing to get excited about.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  60  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       90  57  93  58 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         92  64  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  63  91  63 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  59  86  57 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          87  56  87  57 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          83  47  85  52 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           89  61  88  63 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  62  94  62 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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