Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 022336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015


See 00z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Storms will
likely impact PEQ over the next few hours. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the area beginning Saturday
morning and will increase in coverage Saturday afternoon
especially for CNM and HOB. Winds will be somewhat elevated out of
the southeast through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/

Stronger easterly surface winds/clouds have helped cool
temperatures today. There is a plume of steeper mid level LR/s
over spreading the PB from the NW and is seen in mid level ACC,
but again not much expected to materialize from it. Better
convective potential today driven by daytime heating/mid level
instability focusing in/around the Davis Mtns. Any storms that do
develop will dissipate btwn 03Z- 06Z. A better chance of rain will
develop Sat, especially Upper Trans Pecos, GDP Mtns, and SE NM, as
a mostly s-n oriented 50-70kt 3h jet will be w of the EC/SE NM
plains. Also, sw mid level flow will tap into moist Pacific air,
evident in the form of a 5h theta-e ridge axis. Furthermore there
will be the opportunity for minor shrtwv trofs to move thru the sw
flow aloft. Ensemble data shows that PW anomalys will be about 1-2
standard deviations above normal, thus brief heavy rain will be
possible. Although convective trends will tend to decrease into
late Sat night there is some indication that convection may renew
(Trans Pecos/SE NM) toward 12Z with another shrtwv trof. Timing of
a shrtwv will be important since after it passes rain potential
will decrease, uncertainties assocd with this make it difficult to
nail down timing now. Still there is potential for more storms
across the w on Sunday PM. Local flooding issues may arise too as
storms will have the potential to move across same areas Sat/Sun.
Initial thoughts are that Monday will be more of a down day with
the moist axis to the e and cooler temperatures, still PoPs
warranted across the w. Meanwhile a deeper mid level low will move
into AZ by Tue and then move e or se increasing the chance of rain
Wed. Models diverge though with GFS progressive and ECMWF holding
upper low just to the w and keeping very good rain chances (even
heavy rain) across W TX/SE NM. Hard to tell which will verify as
the Canadian goes with ECMWF and DGEX with GFS. 85h temps will
mostly trend down thru the period so the hot temperatures of
yesterday will be distant memory.





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