Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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826
FXUS64 KMAF 241755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

We`ll also update to add Andrews, Dawson, and Gaines Counties to
the advisory this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest obs suggest asfternoon highs can be bumped up a few
degrees.  Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a Pac front moves
thru the region. Not much wind shift will be noted, but winds will
remain gusty today. A few high clouds are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become strong and gusty out of the west later this morning
especially for CNM...HOB...and PEQ. Winds will decrease in
strength after sunset this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

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