Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271149

649 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


Light fog has settled into the Permian Basin and far southeastern
New Mexico with visibilities generally 2-5 miles though patchy VIS
near HOB has been reduced to 1/4SM. Low clouds are increasing so
dense fog is not expected to become widespread. TAF sites along
the Pecos River should remain VFR due to drier air farther west.
TS will develop this afternoon but FST is the only site where
coverage will be enough to justify a TEMPO group.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015/


Active weather pattern continues with heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend.

A weakening upper trough is making landfall this morning along the S
CA coast. Meanwhile, at the sfc, the dryline has retreated west into
SE NM and the Davis Mountains. Low clouds have also formed within
the moist sector across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Expect these low clouds to mix out by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the 80s and 90s. The dryline shouldn`t move much today
as height falls spread across the region in advance of the West
Coast trough. Heating and high moisture values will promote strong
instability (MU CAPE >3500 J/kg) east of the dryline by this
afternoon. Bulk shear will remain weak with values only near 30 kts.
Weak forcing along the dryline should allow a few storms to develop
with severe weather possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. The HRRR, which did very well with convection
yesterday, develops scattered storms this afternoon across the
higher terrain and northeast Permian Basin. Will lean toward this
solution for this afternoon and evening.

The upper trough moves overhead Thursday with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Convection may be ongoing across parts of
the area during the morning, which will likely affect where storms
develop during later in the day. Adequate deep layer shear along
with steep lapse rates and strong instability should allow for a few
storms to be strong or severe. Again the main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. Heavy rain will also be a possibility as
PWATs climb over 1 inch.

Weak ridging builds in Friday with drier and much warmer conditions.
This is short-lived though as another upper trough and cold front
affect the region Friday night and Saturday. More severe weather and
heavy rain will be possible with this system. Temperatures really
cool Saturday behind the front with highs well below normal.
Ridging builds in early next week helping to dry the area out and
heat us up to near or slightly above normal.






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