Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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662
FXUS64 KMAF 282134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. A widespread cu field is forecast to develop
late morning Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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