Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
510 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. West winds generally 10-15kt sustained
with gusts near 25kt at CNM, HOB and INK through this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

An upper trough over CA this morning levels an approaching upper
trough will swing across AZ and NM today as a stronger trough
farther north moves over the WA/OR coast.  This trough will merge
with a southern stream trough as it moves SE moving over the Great
Basin early Tuesday and crossing the Rockies that evening.  An upper
ridge will start to build in behind that trough but will have to
monitor a trough moves over Mexico next weekend.

Had a High Wind Watch today for the Guadalupe Mountains but it is
looking very marginal so went ahead and canceled it.  Could see
briefly hitting high wind speed in the Guadalupes this afternoon as
a shortwave passes near the area but not convinced it will make the
time requirement.  Tomorrow looking better for high wind in the
Guadalupes with 700mb wind of 45kts in good SW flow so will keep
that watch in effect.

Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer today as recovery from
recent front with a S to SW wind pushing readings into the 70s.
Warmer still on Monday with 70s and 80s expected with 80s spreading
northward Tuesday.  A cold front Wednesday will knock highs back
into the 50s north... 60s central... and 70s south.  The cooler
weather should continue through the rest of the work week with
readings warming next weekend.

Should see some increasing clouds from the west as Pacific moisture
flows over from the west.  However the low levels remain dry with no
precipitation expected this week.

Minimum RH/s ranging from 5 to 15 percent will be common across most
areas today however critical fire weather conditions look to remain
confined to the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon with 20 foot
winds remaining above critical speeds for an extended period of
time. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this area through this
afternoon. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans
Pecos as west winds near or briefly exceed 20 mph. Previously
thought some areas could see critical fire weather conditions Monday
however the timing of the higher wind speeds don`t seem to match up
with the critical RH/s and think maybe a Fire Danger Statement may
be more appropriate. Will continue to monitor the potential and make
adjustments later if needed. Otherwise, the best day see critical
fire weather looks to be Tuesday as strong westerly winds expand
east with areawide min RH/s 10-15 percent expected. Stay tuned.


Big Spring                     72  43  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 62  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  37  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  34  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76  41  79  43 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains.




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