Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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607
FXUS64 KMAF 131102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
elevated and gusty out of the north today with an increase in winds
around 15 to 18z.  A decrease in visibility due to the gusty winds
is possible.  Winds will decrease around 00z and become light and
variable tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting the Texas Panhandle into
OK, as models forecast 24 hrs ago.  Sfc analysis shows the cold
front in the Lwr Trans Pecos/Big Bend area, w/earlier convection
having diminished to -SHRA, and exiting the area to the east.  As
such, the svr t-storm watch was allowed to expire.  In addition, sfc
obs show that the wind warnings/advisories can be cancelled w/this
morning`s package issuance.

As the sfc ridge moves into the area today, models keep pressure
gradients tight, for brisk northerly flow thru the late afternoon.
This will keep afternoon highs about a cat below normal.  Tonight,
as gradients drop off and under clear skies, West Texas/SE NM will
see the coldest night yet this fall, w/the Marfa Plateau flirting
w/a light freeze Tuesday morning.  As first freezes are fickle,
we`ve gone w/a watch for now, and will let the next shift reevaluate
the situation as later model data allows.

Tuesday, light return flow resumes, and temperatures rebound to near
normal.  Temps continue to climb Wed/Thu, before a dry cold front
moves thru Thursday night/Friday.  Temps try to rebound over the
weekend, but models bring another...stronger front into the region
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, taking temps back to near normal
Monday, with perhaps a chance of rain.  GFS and ECMWF are similar in
temps, so we`ve used a blend in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     FREEZE WATCH Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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