Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 300508

1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


VFR with light south winds through the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.






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