Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 292208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016


See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.



Area radars show a band of convection running N-S just west of
KMAF, w/models very generally trending this feature westward thru
the night. Forecast soundings are all over the place for onset of
stratus overnight, so timing confidence remains low. Thus, we`ll
aim for the 04-06Z time frame, and adjust as necessary. Forecast
soundings and moisture fields suggest lower cigs west
w/convection, w/a few hours of LIFR stratus not unreasonable,
given low Td depressions across the area. We`ll generally scatter
cigs to VFR late morning Tuesday, but lwr cigs may persist a few
hrs longer some terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/


Bottom line up top...
*  Flash flood watch in effect for much of west Texas and all of
   southeastern New Mexico until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT Tuesday.
*  Impacts greatest across northwestern Permian Basin, Lea County
*  Moist and unsettled conditions through rest of week.

Ingredients-based approach to flash flooding painting a bullseye
on Andrews and Gaines counties of west Texas this afternoon as
rich moisture transport, an unstable airmass, and weak steering
flow combine for training echoes. We expect these conditions to
become a bit more organized late this afternoon/early this
evening, ranging from the Big Bend north across the central and
western Basin and from there west across southeastern New Mexico.

Andrews 2E West Texas Mesonet saw 2"/hour rainfall rates earlier
this afternoon, and this figures given a deep (3 km) warm layer
promoting efficient collision/coalescence rain processes, a
saturated airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.6"-1.8"
range (2 s.d. above climatology), and weak steering flow. Deep
layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper
low over the Four Corners. Moisture transport flux looks to be
most impressive tonight with 850 hPa mixing ratios near 16 g/kg
and net east flow pumping more moisture into convective towers.
Widespread 1"-2" rains likely in the flash flood watch area, with
isolated amounts exceeding 6" expected across Lea County east
across the northwestern Basin. The wind threat doesn`t appear that
impressive; however, wet microbursts with outflow nearing 50 mph
isn`t out of the question. Lastly, there`s a decent bit of parcel
acceleration seen in the model soundings in the -15C to -25C
layer, thus occasional to frequent lightning will also be a

Rain will taper off a bit in the morning hours Tuesday before a
second round is forecast, mainly for southeastern New Mexico,
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip forecasts for Tuesday not as
much as what we`ll see overnight owing to some drier air impinging
from the east. Beyond Tuesday, expect a slight warming trend with
temperatures in the 85-95F range and lows generally in the 60s.
Rain chances will decrease through the week but will still be
present, with the best chances found over the mountains and
adjacent plains.


Big Spring                     69  85  68  86 /  60  50  50  40
Carlsbad                       66  76  65  80 /  90  80  70  50
Dryden                         71  85  70  87 /  70  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  65  81  65  85 /  70  60  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 59  71  59  74 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          63  77  64  81 /  90  70  60  50
Marfa                          61  75  60  77 /  80  70  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Odessa                         67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Wink                           67  83  67  86 /  80  70  70  40


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.



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