Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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641
FXUS64 KMAF 271801
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
101 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 27/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

STARTING TO SEE SOME BUILDUPS AND SMALL TSRA EXTENDING ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CARLSBAD NM ESEWD THROUGH KINK AND KMAF
AND EAST TOWARD KSJT. WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
THESE PULSE-TYPE TSRA WILL MOVE LITTLE BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KINK
AND KMAF BASED OFF OF RECENT RADAR DATA. INVOF TSRA EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY AND JUST BARELY VFR CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM CONVECTION IS WANING BUT WILL BE RENEWED
THIS PM, ESPECIALLY NEAR FST AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TEMPO TSRA
THERE AFTER 21Z. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF MAF
AND WILL PUSH THRU BEFORE 13Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL
15Z-16Z. BRIEF CIGS NEAR MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR MAF THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL MCS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER JET. HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO SEE IF THE MODELS DISPLAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BOUNDARY EDGING INTO THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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