Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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408
FXUS64 KMAF 221726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few MVFR CIGS are left around CNM/HOB but most have lifted to
between 030-040 AGL. We expect this will mostly be the trend thru
afternoon. A few -SHRA have moved into the FST/MAF areas and have
included only a TEMPO -SHRA there, lightning has been mostly
absent from convection well to SE of MAF/FST since about 15Z. SE
wind will increase to around or just under 15kts early this
evening before decreasing again around 06Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have been slow to expand over the area, but are
still expected to materialize for several hours this morning,
with areawide improvement to VFR expected around 17-18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, thus have included
TEMPO mention at FST and MAF where confidence is highest. Heavy
rain could produce MVFR/IFR conditions, with lightning and gusty
winds also expected. Southeast winds could become gusty after
23/00Z, particularly at west Texas terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  87  72  88 /  40  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       69  90  67  87 /  30  40  30  30
Dryden                         73  85  72  86 /  30  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  87  68  84 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  76  61  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          68  89  66  85 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          63  76  61  76 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           73  86  71  85 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         72  87  70  84 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           73  90  70  84 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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