Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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345
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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