Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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575
FXUS64 KMAF 021945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows an upper trough along the upper Texas Gulf coast,
making an intrusion into a ridge otherwise centered over Texas.
Models take the trough south of Texas by late Thursday, and shear it
out, allowing the ridge to re-establish.  This will result in
gradually increasing thicknesses into next week, peaking sometime
around Monday.  Temps should stay above-normal thru the extended,
although forecast soundings and past model performance suggest
staying toward the lwr to mid range of MOS numbers.

As for rain, the theta-e ridge continues to lie NW of West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, oriented SW-NE.  This will tend to favor the
higher terrain for chances of convection each day, as minor
disturbances move thru SW flow aloft.  Until the ridge breaks down,
this looks to persist.  However, models hint at flattening the ridge
next week w/a series of troughs across the upper CONUS, possibly
opening a window for better chances of convection starting Mon/Tue
under zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  93  71  91  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    65  96  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  99  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  95  68  94  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  88  68  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       63  90  66  88  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  90  58  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  93  69  91  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      71  93  69  91  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        68  97  70  95  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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