Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

443
FXUS64 KMAF 250027
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
727 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and the Wind
Advisory

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds across the areas this evening have decreased to below
critical thresholds. Because of this, we have allowed the High
Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

03
771
FXUS64 KMAF 242338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wind
gusts will diminish by around 06Z, with sustained speeds expected
to be around 12kt or less areawide thereafter. Winds will veer to
the northwest tonight, and then return to the south Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
059
FXUS64 KMAF 241818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
118 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The strong upper low that brought the high wind to the area
yesterday is moving across the Southern Plains today.  Still had
some wind on the backside of it as a deep surface low moved across
the Panhandle and into OK.  Will have brief upper ridging over the
area Saturday before a series of upper troughs moves this way.  The
next upper trough will move ashore the West Coast Saturday and head
this way reaching NM by early Sunday.  Another brief ridge expected
after that one.  The next upper trough moves ashore CA on Monday and
develops into a cut off low reaching the 4 corners region by early
Tuesday and moving over West TX by Wednesday.

Still very windy today on backside of upper low... have a Wind
Advisory for most of the region with a High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Mountains... plan on letting those continue till they
expire at 00z.  May become a little windy again on Sunday as another
surface low moves across the Panhandle.

After a record setting warm start to the week have cooler temps
today behind the Pacific front.  A cold front moves through tonight
with lows dropping into the 40s with a few 30s at Marfa and Tatum.
South wind returns Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows
Saturday night in the 40s and 50s with highs Sunday mainly in the
80s.  Another front moves through sunday night with a 3rd front
expected late Wednesday.

Not much rain chances the next few days but will have a chance of
storms returning to the area mainly east Tuesday and Wednesday with
approach of cut off low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy conditions will continue through sunset before winds
diminish and and conditions improve. A cold front will cause winds
to veer from the west to the northwest and north, before decreasing
and settling on a northwesterly direction overnight. Winds will be
light Saturday as high pressure builds into west Texas but another
upper low moving into the Great Plains will increase west winds
again Sunday and could create critical fire weather conditions. At
this time the wind speeds are marginal for Red Flag criteria so will
hold off on issuing a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  75  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  77  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

10/72
826
FXUS64 KMAF 241730
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will be veering around from the west to the northwest
through the next several hours as a cold front moves through the
area. Winds will maintain speeds through that time then will
diminish after 00Z. VFR conditions will remain through the next 24
hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
721
FXUS64 KMAF 241002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Texas/OK
Panhandles, leaving all terminals in subsidence on the backside
today. As a result, windy conditions will continue, w/westerlies
veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z Fri. A few high
clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
396
FXUS64 KMAF 240939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
439 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The strong mid level low that brought high winds across the area
yesterday will continue to move east through the south-central plains
today. A strong mid-level jet continues to wrap around the base
of the trough. These strong upper level winds should be allowed to
mix down with subsidence on the back side of the trough. We
should see another windy day for the majority of the area, though
not quite as windy as yesterday. Winds should be strong enough for
a Wind Advisory for much of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
except in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning will
remain in effect. The Pacific front will continue to push east and
behind it slightly cooler will reside, which will bring high
temperatures down into 70s for today. The dry air to the west will
also be pushed further east and another fire weather day is in
store with the gusty winds expected. See Fire Weather Discussion
below.

By Friday night, the trough will further east and sent a
front south into the area. This will be a dry front as all the
moisture will be pushed east. A weak ridge will build over the
area on Saturday and make for a rather pleasant day before a
shortwave trough moves through the Texas Panhandle. Strong
westerly winds will likely contribute to another windy day on
Sunday. Yet another front will move south into the area on the
backside of the trough and bring only a slight cool down again to
start the week.

The train of upper level troughs will continue next week. The
first one will swing through the south-central Rockies bringing
some unsettled weather with it. There will be chances for rain
across much of the area from Tuesday to Thursday. Heading into
next weekend the second upper trough looks to take a similar path
as the previous and could continue the streak of active weather.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in
subsidence on the backside of the trough later today.  Thus, 20`
westerly winds will veer to the NW, generally increasing to the NE,
closer to the base of the exiting trough.  The GFS once again mixes
deeper than the NAM, performed well for yesterday`s event, and is
the preferred model for today.  That said, forecast soundings mix to
an average of 650mb, which will easily result in critical 20` winds
area-wide.  Currently, the dryline extends from KSNK SW to the Big
Bend Area, and is forecast to keep trucking eastward today.  This is
allowing for poor recovery overnight, and RH will stay low Fri in
continued W-NW flow.  The only area in question is the NE zones,
where RH may stay just above criteria this afternoon.  Otherwise, as
a result of yesterday`s activity, extreme Fire Danger now covers
most all of the forecast area.  Trans Pecos ERCs continue near the
90th percentile. Although the fire wx threat is a little lower
today, we are not out of the (dry) woods yet.

Sunday continues to shape up as another critical fire wx day,
confined mainly to the Guadalupes and adjacent plains, as a
secondary trough passes north of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  45  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  46  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  45  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          74  40  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  46  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           79  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
100
FXUS64 KMAF 240440
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in localized
BLDU. WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/OK
Panhandles, which will leave all terminals in subsidence on the
backside today. As a result, windy conditions will continue,
w/westerlies veering to NW, and beginning to diminish after 00Z
Fri.  A few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Update to remove high wind highlights except for GDP Mtns and to
cancel RFW.

DISCUSSION...
Winds are decreasing although still windy in a few places as front
moves east across the area. Southerly LLJ will keep winds up
across the east for few more hours.

Also we have opted to cancel RFW, as conditions have abated. Per
satellite we detected a few fires in the area today including;
along I-10 east of Van Horn, near Orla, sw of Seminole and se of
Wink.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  50  75  45 /  10  40  10   0
Carlsbad                       88  46  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  53  81  50 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  90  50  78  48 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  40  66  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  44  72  40 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  38  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  49  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         85  48  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           91  48  78  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MDT Friday through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Friday through
     Friday evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
841
FXUS64 KMAF 240315 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1015 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Update to remove high wind highlights except for GDP Mtns and to
cancel RFW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are decreasing although still windy in a few places as front
moves east across the area. Southerly LLJ will keep winds up
across the east for few more hours.

Also we have opted to cancel RFW, as conditions have abated. Per
satellite we detected a few fires in the area today including;
along I-10 east of Van Horn, near Orla, sw of Seminole and se of
Wink.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MDT Friday through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Friday through
     Friday evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
956
FXUS64 KMAF 240144 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
844 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Update to lower PoPs and decreased severe storm potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific cold front and has caught up to the dryline and is
quickly moving east across the area. Limited moisture has
precluded a more serious threat for severe storms and have we
decreased PoPs and removed severe wording. A strong storm or 2 is
still possible mainly across the nrn CWFA until boundary move
east. Still very windy and wind highlights will remain in effect,
in fact they may have to be extended? Later updates for wind will
be needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will veer to the southwest/west at all terminals this
evening, with gusts to 40-50kt common through 06Z. While winds
will diminish somewhat overnight, expect speeds to increase again
by late Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40kt through Friday
afternoon. MVFR conditions in blowing dust are expected for
several hours this evening, with brief IFR conditions possible.
VFR conditions are expected to return overnight, and prevail
through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible at MAF/FST this
evening, however, uncertainty precludes inclusion at this time,
thus will monitor and amend as necessary.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Update for fire weather watch for Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
High end fire weather conditions along with dry fuels are
promoting a high probability of significant fire potential into
early evening across the warned RF area, in fact an outbreak of
fires is possible. Strong winds will continue through at least
mid evening and RH will be slow to recovery. More critical fire
weather is expected Friday and watch has been issued for all
areas.

A Fire Weather Watch for Friday for all areas combined with todays
fire weather will make for a long duration fire weather event.
The strongest winds (albeit much less than today`s) will likely
occur between 15Z-20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  40  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
284
FXUS64 KMAF 232347
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will veer to the southwest/west at all terminals this
evening, with gusts to 40-50kt common through 06Z. While winds
will diminish somewhat overnight, expect speeds to increase again
by late Friday morning, with gusts to 30-40kt through Friday
afternoon. MVFR conditions in blowing dust are expected for
several hours this evening, with brief IFR conditions possible.
VFR conditions are expected to return overnight, and prevail
through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible at MAF/FST this
evening, however, uncertainty precludes inclusion at this time,
thus will monitor and amend as necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Update for fire weather watch for Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
High end fire weather conditions along with dry fuels are
promoting a high probability of significant fire potential into
early evening across the warned RF area, in fact an outbreak of
fires is possible. Strong winds will continue through at least
mid evening and RH will be slow to recovery. More critical fire
weather is expected Friday and watch has been issued for all
areas.

A Fire Weather Watch for Friday for all areas combined with todays
fire weather will make for a long duration fire weather event.
The strongest winds (albeit much less than today`s) will likely
occur between 15Z-20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
177
FXUS64 KMAF 232053 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Update for fire weather watch for Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High end fire weather conditions along with dry fuels are
promoting a high probability of significant fire potential into
early evening across the warned RF area, in fact an outbreak of
fires is possible. Strong winds will continue through at least
mid evening and RH will be slow to recovery. More critical fire
weather is expected Friday and watch has been issued for all
areas.

A Fire Weather Watch for Friday for all areas combined with todays
fire weather will make for a long duration fire weather event.
The strongest winds (albeit much less than today`s) will likely
occur between 15Z-20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
358
FXUS64 KMAF 231920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is approaching from the west with an upper ridge
over the southeast part of the country. This upper pattern has
resulted in west southwest flow aloft over the area. Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday as
lower heights move over the area. The approach of this upper trough
has contributed to a tightened surface pressure gradient across the
CWA which has resulted in strong winds across the area. High Wind
Warnings are in effect for the western 2/3rds of the CWA and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern
Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos for this afternoon into this
evening. Patchy blowing dust will be possible across much of the
area due to the winds.

A surface trough will develop across the Upper Trans Pecos this
afternoon with a dryline developing and tightening up across this
area. Good low-level moisture will be present to the east of the
dryline with strong south to southeast winds. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible along and to the east of this dryline late this
afternoon into tonight. There will be decent CAPE along and just to
the east of the dryline and the bulk shear and mid-level lapse rate
will be very high early this evening. There will also be good upper
level lift over the area so these conditions will aid in severe
weather development. The models are not showing any convection
across the CWA until between 00z and 06z. The storms are expected to
mainly impact southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains. The hi-resolution models are just
showing convection across the northern border of the CWA. The storms
will pretty much be out of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with the center
of the trough passing over Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas. Strong
upper level winds from the base of the upper trough will mix
downward toward the surface into Friday allowing for high winds
across the Guadalupe Mountains so the High Wind Warning for this
area continues through Friday afternoon. Gusty, west winds will be
blowing across the area on Friday associated with a Pacific front
which will allow for temperatures on Friday to be a little cooler
with highs mostly in the 70s. A northerly wind shift will come into
the area Friday evening into Friday night. Winds will quickly shift
back towards the south Saturday afternoon so high temperatures
Saturday will be similar if not a little warmer than those on
Friday. Upper ridging also begins to develop over the region on
Saturday. Another upper trough is expected to move just to the north
of the area on Sunday with the base of the trough moving over the
CWA. This will contribute to gusty west winds Sunday afternoon. A
cold front is expected to move into the area on Monday but
temperatures will not be affected much. Another upper trough will
move over the region sometime during the middle of next week and
models are indicating possible storms Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s are expected in
the extended forecast.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Approaching upper trough and deep surface low have combined to
produce windy conditions with blowing dust across the area. As the
surface trough/Pacific front moves through the wind will swing
around from the south to the west late this afternoon and evening.
20ft winds above 20mph and RH falling below 15 percent expected
along with very high to extreme fire danger.  A Red Flag Warning is
in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Cooler temperatures...
higher rh... and less wind Friday with speeds decreasing through the
day.  Could still have some areas reach near critical Friday so will
issue a Fire Weather Watch Friday for SE NM... the Trans Pecos...
and the Davis Mtns. This watch may be expanded.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  75  45  78 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  81  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  78  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  75 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  67  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  77  47  78 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                           48  78  44  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/80
420
FXUS64 KMAF 231737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty south wind has kicked in at most TAF sites as of 17z
with gusts in the 35 to 40kt range possible through the afternoon.
Blowing dust may reduce vsbys down into the upper MVFR range. As
surface trough/Pacific front moves through this afternoon and
evening the wind will shift around to the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An active weather day is on tap for today as we are set to deal with
a variety of hazards including high winds, extreme fire weather
conditions, and severe weather.

The upper trough that will be affecting West Texas and southeast
New Mexico has moved onshore and will move eastward through the
central and southern Rockies through tonight. As cyclogenesis
occurs eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, we will see and
strong southerly winds on the east side of the surface trough
crank up through the afternoon. As the winds increase throughout
the day, we could see some areas of blowing dust. A dryline will
set up just east of the TX/NM state line and be the focus for
severe storms. Moderate instability will be present east of the
dryline with very strong shear and steep mid level lapse rates.
This should be more than enough to support severe storms. A strong
cap should hold off convection until late afternoon/early evening
when a broken line of storms develops along and north of the I-20
corridor with the aid of the large scale accent from the
approaching upper trough. Best chances will be across the central
and northern Permian Basin, but may also see a few storms develop
further south in the Lower Trans Pecos through the evening. Main
threats with these storms will be damaging winds and hail as the
system moves eastward through the evening into the overnight
hours. To the west of the dryline, very dry air and high winds
will lead to extreme fire weather conditions. For more information
on the fire weather situation see the Fire Weather Discussion
below. For the high winds, we have a tale of two wind maxima.
Surface pressure gradient east of the dryline will likely yield
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph across portions of the Permian
Basin this afternoon and evening. West of the dryline will see 40
to 60 kt jet winds at 700 and 850 mb. These winds should mix down
and lead to high winds across the higher elevations and the
adjacent plains. Will expand the High Wind Warning to the east
into the Permian Basin and south towards the Big Bend and Davis
Mountains and a Wind Advisory will be issued for the remaining
counties.

The upper trough will have moved into the Central Plains by
Friday and associated Pacific front will have pushed any moisture
to the east. Critical fire weather conditions will again be on the
slate and discussed more in the fire weather discussion below.
Cooler temps will be in place and will cut down high temperatures
into the 70s for the majority of locations expect along the Rio
Grande where locations will see temperatures in the 80s. A front
will move south across West Texas Friday evening and result in a
wind shift to the north before turning southerly in response to
the next approaching trough. Saturday will be the best day of the
weekend before things begin to pick up again.

On Sunday we will see the passing of another trough and a slight
warm up with downsloping winds before another potent trough will
bring more unsettled weather to the area. Models still disagree at
this point on how they want to handle the system, so will keep
rain chances on the low end until they can come into more
agreement.

Fire Weather Discussion...
WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru CA/NV, and still
forecast to be over the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and near the
intersection of CO/KS/OK 12 hrs later.  A sfc trough ahead of this
feature has increased return flow across the area, pushing the 60F
isodrosotherm as far west as KCNM and sharpening up a dryline to the
west.  Latest obs show single-digit RH west of the dryline,
coincident w/the low-lvl thermal ridge (LLTR), and this is poised to
push east later today as mixing commences.  The GFS is the model of
choice wrt dewpoints, winds, and mixing.  By 21Z Thu, forecast
soundings mix to 800mb (40kts) east to 500 mb (55-60kts) west.  This
will push the LLTR to the central CWA, w/the dryline just to the
east.  Needless to say, very critical Red Flag conditions are
anticipated west of the dryline, especially over the Trans Pecos, where
extreme Fire Danger and ERC in the 90th percentile are forecast.  As
the dryline moves east, and benefits of the current moisture return
will be rendered moot.

Friday, as subsidence sets in on the backside of the trough,
critical fire wx conditions look likely roughly along and west of
the Pecos.  Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep, temps are a little
cooler, RH higher, and RFTIs lower than what`s expected today.  To
avoid sowing confusion w/complicated products, we`ll forego issuing
any watch/warning products attm, and emphasize the threat in the
HWO.  Sunday looks to be critical fire wx in the Guadalupes as a
secondary trough passes to the north.  Again, we`ll mention this in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  76  46  79 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  78  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  81  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  77  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  67  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  72  40  76 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  70  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  77  48  79 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         50  77  47  79 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           47  78  44  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Dawson-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
813
FXUS64 KMAF 231036
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
536 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An approaching upper level storm system and sfc trough generating
very tight sfc gradients will result in windy conditions for most
terminals next 24 hours. As the sfc trough moves east, sfc flow
will veer to the west, w/perhaps a little BLDU this afternoon. LLJ
is forecast to advect a few hrs of IFR stratus into KMAF/KHOB/KINK
before scattering out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An active weather day is on tap for today as we are set to deal with
a variety of hazards including high winds, extreme fire weather
conditions, and severe weather.

The upper trough that will be affecting West Texas and southeast
New Mexico has moved onshore and will move eastward through the
central and southern Rockies through tonight. As cyclogenesis
occurs eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, we will see and
strong southerly winds on the east side of the surface trough
crank up through the afternoon. As the winds increase throughout
the day, we could see some areas of blowing dust. A dryline will
set up just east of the TX/NM state line and be the focus for
severe storms. Moderate instability will be present east of the
dryline with very strong shear and steep mid level lapse rates.
This should be more than enough to support severe storms. A strong
cap should hold off convection until late afternoon/early evening
when a broken line of storms develops along and north of the I-20
corridor with the aid of the large scale accent from the
approaching upper trough. Best chances will be across the central
and northern Permian Basin, but may also see a few storms develop
further south in the Lower Trans Pecos through the evening. Main
threats with these storms will be damaging winds and hail as the
system moves eastward through the evening into the overnight
hours. To the west of the dryline, very dry air and high winds
will lead to extreme fire weather conditions. For more information
on the fire weather situation see the Fire Weather Discussion
below. For the high winds, we have a tale of two wind maxima.
Surface pressure gradient east of the dryline will likely yield
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph across portions of the Permian
Basin this afternoon and evening. West of the dryline will see 40
to 60 kt jet winds at 700 and 850 mb. These winds should mix down
and lead to high winds across the higher elevations and the
adjacent plains. Will expand the High Wind Warning to the east
into the Permian Basin and south towards the Big Bend and Davis
Mountains and a Wind Advisory will be issued for the remaining
counties.

The upper trough will have moved into the Central Plains by
Friday and associated Pacific front will have pushed any moisture
to the east. Critical fire weather conditions will again be on the
slate and discussed more in the fire weather discussion below.
Cooler temps will be in place and will cut down high temperatures
into the 70s for the majority of locations expect along the Rio
Grande where locations will see temperatures in the 80s. A front
will move south across West Texas Friday evening and result in a
wind shift to the north before turning southerly in response to
the next approaching trough. Saturday will be the best day of the
weekend before things begin to pick up again.

On Sunday we will see the passing of another trough and a slight
warm up with downsloping winds before another potent trough will
bring more unsettled weather to the area. Models still disagree at
this point on how they want to handle the system, so will keep
rain chances on the low end until they can come into more
agreement.

Fire Weather Discussion...
WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru CA/NV, and still
forecast to be over the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and near the
intersection of CO/KS/OK 12 hrs later.  A sfc trough ahead of this
feature has increased return flow across the area, pushing the 60F
isodrosotherm as far west as KCNM and sharpening up a dryline to the
west.  Latest obs show single-digit RH west of the dryline,
coincident w/the low-lvl thermal ridge (LLTR), and this is poised to
push east later today as mixing commences.  The GFS is the model of
choice wrt dewpoints, winds, and mixing.  By 21Z Thu, forecast
soundings mix to 800mb (40kts) east to 500 mb (55-60kts) west.  This
will push the LLTR to the central CWA, w/the dryline just to the
east.  Needless to say, very critical Red Flag conditions are
anticipated west of the dryline, especially over the Trans Pecos, where
extreme Fire Danger and ERC in the 90th percentile are forecast.  As
the dryline moves east, and benefits of the current moisture return
will be rendered moot.

Friday, as subsidence sets in on the backside of the trough,
critical fire wx conditions look likely roughly along and west of
the Pecos.  Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep, temps are a little
cooler, RH higher, and RFTIs lower than what`s expected today.  To
avoid sowing confusion w/complicated products, we`ll forego issuing
any watch/warning products attm, and emphasize the threat in the
HWO.  Sunday looks to be critical fire wx in the Guadalupes as a
secondary trough passes to the north.  Again, we`ll mention this in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  50  76  46 /  10  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       88  45  78  41 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  52  81  51 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  90  51  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  40  67  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  44  72  40 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          87  39  70  39 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  52  77  48 /  10  40  10   0
Odessa                         85  50  77  47 /  10  30  10   0
Wink                           91  47  78  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for Borden-Dawson-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
046
FXUS64 KMAF 231017
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather day is on tap for today as we are set to deal with
a variety of hazards including high winds, extreme fire weather
conditions, and severe weather.

The upper trough that will be affecting West Texas and southeast
New Mexico has moved onshore and will move eastward through the
central and southern Rockies through tonight. As cyclogenesis
occurs eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, we will see and
strong southerly winds on the east side of the surface trough
crank up through the afternoon. As the winds increase throughout
the day, we could see some areas of blowing dust. A dryline will
set up just east of the TX/NM state line and be the focus for
severe storms. Moderate instability will be present east of the
dryline with very strong shear and steep mid level lapse rates.
This should be more than enough to support severe storms. A strong
cap should hold off convection until late afternoon/early evening
when a broken line of storms develops along and north of the I-20
corridor with the aid of the large scale accent from the
approaching upper trough. Best chances will be across the central
and northern Permian Basin, but may also see a few storms develop
further south in the Lower Trans Pecos through the evening. Main
threats with these storms will be damaging winds and hail as the
system moves eastward through the evening into the overnight
hours. To the west of the dryline, very dry air and high winds
will lead to extreme fire weather conditions. For more information
on the fire weather situation see the Fire Weather Discussion
below. For the high winds, we have a tale of two wind maxima.
Surface pressure gradient east of the dryline will likely yield
sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph across portions of the Permian
Basin this afternoon and evening. West of the dryline will see 40
to 60 kt jet winds at 700 and 850 mb. These winds should mix down
and lead to high winds across the higher elevations and the
adjacent plains. Will expand the High Wind Warning to the east
into the Permian Basin and south towards the Big Bend and Davis
Mountains and a Wind Advisory will be issued for the remaining
counties.

The upper trough will have moved into the Central Plains by
Friday and associated Pacific front will have pushed any moisture
to the east. Critical fire weather conditions will again be on the
slate and discussed more in the fire weather discussion below.
Cooler temps will be in place and will cut down high temperatures
into the 70s for the majority of locations expect along the Rio
Grande where locations will see temperatures in the 80s. A front
will move south across West Texas Friday evening and result in a
wind shift to the north before turning southerly in response to
the next approaching trough. Saturday will be the best day of the
weekend before things begin to pick up again.

On Sunday we will see the passing of another trough and a slight
warm up with downsloping winds before another potent trough will
bring more unsettled weather to the area. Models still disagree at
this point on how they want to handle the system, so will keep
rain chances on the low end until they can come into more
agreement.

Fire Weather Discussion...
WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru CA/NV, and still
forecast to be over the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and near the
intersection of CO/KS/OK 12 hrs later.  A sfc trough ahead of this
feature has increased return flow across the area, pushing the 60F
isodrosotherm as far west as KCNM and sharpening up a dryline to the
west.  Latest obs show single-digit RH west of the dryline,
coincident w/the low-lvl thermal ridge (LLTR), and this is poised to
push east later today as mixing commences.  The GFS is the model of
choice wrt dewpoints, winds, and mixing.  By 21Z Thu, forecast
soundings mix to 800mb (40kts) east to 500 mb (55-60kts) west.  This
will push the LLTR to the central CWA, w/the dryline just to the
east.  Needless to say, very critical Red Flag conditions are
anticipated west of the dryline, especially over the Trans Pecos, where
extreme Fire Danger and ERC in the 90th percentile are forecast.  As
the dryline moves east, and benefits of the current moisture return
will be rendered moot.

Friday, as subsidence sets in on the backside of the trough,
critical fire wx conditions look likely roughly along and west of
the Pecos.  Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep, temps are a little
cooler, RH higher, and RFTIs lower than what`s expected today.  To
avoid sowing confusion w/complicated products, we`ll forego issuing
any watch/warning products attm, and emphasize the threat in the
HWO.  Sunday looks to be critical fire wx in the Guadalupes as a
secondary trough passes to the north.  Again, we`ll mention this in
the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  50  76  46 /  10  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       88  45  78  41 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  52  81  51 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  90  51  77  47 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  40  67  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  44  72  40 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          87  39  70  39 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  52  77  48 /  10  40  10   0
Odessa                         85  50  77  47 /  10  30  10   0
Wink                           91  47  78  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for Borden-Dawson-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
492
FXUS64 KMAF 230551
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A sfc trough generating very tight sfc gradients and durinal
mixing will result in breezy conditions for most terminals next 24
hours. As the sfc trough moves east, sfc flow will veer to the
west, w/perhaps a little BLDU at KCNM. LLJ is forecast to advect a
few hrs of LIFR stratus into KMAF/KHOB before scattering out.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with
upper troughs over the west and east coasts.  Westerly flow is over
the area with southeast surface winds bringing in good low-level
moisture.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
higher terrain this afternoon and early evening with cumulus already
starting to appear on satellite. The cold front that has recently
moved into the area will result in high temperatures this afternoon
being cooler than yesterday but still well above normal.

The upper trough that is over the west coast will move eastward over
the Four Corners Region by Thursday evening.  The approach of this
upper trough will bring an increase in the surface pressure gradient
and an increase in upper level winds.  These gusty winds will be
across the whole CWA.  High winds are likely across the Guadalupe
Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Wind
Advisories will likely be issued later for portions of the plains
for tomorrow. A surface trough will also be present across the area
with a dryline along this trough. Mid-level lapse rates and bulk
shear will be very high, and there will be a narrow area just along
and east of the dryline with decent CAPE values Thursday afternoon
and evening. Upper level lift will also be very good so these
conditions will allow for a chance of severe thunderstorms to
develop Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the
dryline. The models are not showing convection developing until 00z
or after and keep most of it across southeast New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The dryline will tighten up Thursday evening
with moist southeast winds ahead of it and dry southwest to west
winds behind it.  These dry winds will contribute to increased fire
weather concerns.  See the fire weather discussion below. The models
show that the convection is mostly east of the CWA by Friday
morning.

The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds associated with a Pacific front blowing across the CWA.  This
will result in temperatures mostly being in the 70s on Friday.  As
the upper trough moves east of the region, surface winds will shift
towards the north Friday night as a cold front moves into the area.
Winds will quickly return to the south on Saturday so daytime highs
on Saturday may actually be slightly higher than the previous day.
Another upper trough moves over the region on Sunday with gusty west
surface winds resulting in temperatures on Sunday warming up into
the 80s across much of the area. Yet another upper trough is
expected to move over the region sometime during the middle part of
next week although the models are off on the timing of it.
Temperatures in the extended will mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Thursday is still on track to be very dry and windy across the
western half of the CWA from southeastern New Mexico to the Presidio
Valley. It will be very windy farther east but south winds will
advect moisture into the Permian Basin keeping relative humidities
above 15 percent. A line of thunderstorms will form along a pacific
front in Lea County and move southeast during the afternoon and
evening providing moisture mainly north of a line from Hobbs to Big
Lake. Have upgraded the watch to a warning and will have to keep an
eye on Friday. It will remain windy behind the front on Friday but
cooler temperatures will mean relative humidities will be
marginal. For now have opted to hold off issuing a Fire Weather
Watch for Friday and evaluate further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  75  47 /  10  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       87  48  77  40 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         82  55  83  51 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  85  52  77  47 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  40  67  43 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  46  72  38 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          83  40  69  36 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  52  76  46 /  10  40  10   0
Odessa                         83  51  76  46 /  10  40  10   0
Wink                           86  49  77  44 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
050
FXUS64 KMAF 222337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the night at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. By 09z- 12z
prevailing or tempo MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF,
KINK, KHOB and KFST. MVFR ceilings are expected for much of
Thursday morning at KMAF and KHOB. Southeast winds of 10 to 25 mph
and gusty are expected overnight and Thursday morning. Winds will
become south to southwest and increase to 25 to 35 mph and gusty
Thursday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with
upper troughs over the west and east coasts.  Westerly flow is over
the area with southeast surface winds bringing in good low-level
moisture.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
higher terrain this afternoon and early evening with cumulus already
starting to appear on satellite. The cold front that has recently
moved into the area will result in high temperatures this afternoon
being cooler than yesterday but still well above normal.

The upper trough that is over the west coast will move eastward over
the Four Corners Region by Thursday evening.  The approach of this
upper trough will bring an increase in the surface pressure gradient
and an increase in upper level winds.  These gusty winds will be
across the whole CWA.  High winds are likely across the Guadalupe
Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Wind
Advisories will likely be issued later for portions of the plains
for tomorrow. A surface trough will also be present across the area
with a dryline along this trough. Mid-level lapse rates and bulk
shear will be very high, and there will be a narrow area just along
and east of the dryline with decent CAPE values Thursday afternoon
and evening. Upper level lift will also be very good so these
conditions will allow for a chance of severe thunderstorms to
develop Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the
dryline. The models are not showing convection developing until 00z
or after and keep most of it across southeast New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The dryline will tighten up Thursday evening
with moist southeast winds ahead of it and dry southwest to west
winds behind it.  These dry winds will contribute to increased fire
weather concerns.  See the fire weather discussion below. The models
show that the convection is mostly east of the CWA by Friday
morning.

The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds associated with a Pacific front blowing across the CWA.  This
will result in temperatures mostly being in the 70s on Friday.  As
the upper trough moves east of the region, surface winds will shift
towards the north Friday night as a cold front moves into the area.
Winds will quickly return to the south on Saturday so daytime highs
on Saturday may actually be slightly higher than the previous day.
Another upper trough moves over the region on Sunday with gusty west
surface winds resulting in temperatures on Sunday warming up into
the 80s across much of the area. Yet another upper trough is
expected to move over the region sometime during the middle part of
next week although the models are off on the timing of it.
Temperatures in the extended will mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Thursday is still on track to be very dry and windy across the
western half of the CWA from southeastern New Mexico to the Presidio
Valley. It will be very windy farther east but south winds will
advect moisture into the Permian Basin keeping relative humidities
above 15 percent. A line of thunderstorms will form along a pacific
front in Lea County and move southeast during the afternoon and
evening providing moisture mainly north of a line from Hobbs to Big
Lake. Have upgraded the watch to a warning and will have to keep an
eye on Friday. It will remain windy behind the front on Friday but
cooler temperatures will mean relative humidities will be
marginal. For now have opted to hold off issuing a Fire Weather
Watch for Friday and evaluate further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  81  52  75 /  10  10  50  10
Carlsbad                       53  87  48  77 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         62  82  55  83 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  60  85  52  77 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  70  40  67 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          55  82  46  72 /  10  20  30   0
Marfa                          49  83  40  69 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  52  76 /  10  10  40  10
Odessa                         62  83  51  76 /  10  10  40  10
Wink                           60  86  49  77 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Friday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/80
828
FXUS64 KMAF 221936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country with
upper troughs over the west and east coasts.  Westerly flow is over
the area with southeast surface winds bringing in good low-level
moisture.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
higher terrain this afternoon and early evening with cumulus already
starting to appear on satellite. The cold front that has recently
moved into the area will result in high temperatures this afternoon
being cooler than yesterday but still well above normal.

The upper trough that is over the west coast will move eastward over
the Four Corners Region by Thursday evening.  The approach of this
upper trough will bring an increase in the surface pressure gradient
and an increase in upper level winds.  These gusty winds will be
across the whole CWA.  High winds are likely across the Guadalupe
Mountains so the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Wind
Advisories will likely be issued later for portions of the plains
for tomorrow. A surface trough will also be present across the area
with a dryline along this trough. Mid-level lapse rates and bulk
shear will be very high, and there will be a narrow area just along
and east of the dryline with decent CAPE values Thursday afternoon
and evening. Upper level lift will also be very good so these
conditions will allow for a chance of severe thunderstorms to
develop Thursday afternoon and evening along and east of the
dryline. The models are not showing convection developing until 00z
or after and keep most of it across southeast New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The dryline will tighten up Thursday evening
with moist southeast winds ahead of it and dry southwest to west
winds behind it.  These dry winds will contribute to increased fire
weather concerns.  See the fire weather discussion below. The models
show that the convection is mostly east of the CWA by Friday
morning.

The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds associated with a Pacific front blowing across the CWA.  This
will result in temperatures mostly being in the 70s on Friday.  As
the upper trough moves east of the region, surface winds will shift
towards the north Friday night as a cold front moves into the area.
Winds will quickly return to the south on Saturday so daytime highs
on Saturday may actually be slightly higher than the previous day.
Another upper trough moves over the region on Sunday with gusty west
surface winds resulting in temperatures on Sunday warming up into
the 80s across much of the area. Yet another upper trough is
expected to move over the region sometime during the middle part of
next week although the models are off on the timing of it.
Temperatures in the extended will mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Thursday is still on track to be very dry and windy across the
western half of the CWA from southeastern New Mexico to the Presidio
Valley. It will be very windy farther east but south winds will
advect moisture into the Permian Basin keeping relative humidities
above 15 percent. A line of thunderstorms will form along a pacific
front in Lea County and move southeast during the afternoon and
evening providing moisture mainly north of a line from Hobbs to Big
Lake. Have upgraded the watch to a warning and will have to keep an
eye on Friday. It will remain windy behind the front on Friday but
cooler temperatures will mean relative humidities will be
marginal. For now have opted to hold off issuing a Fire Weather
Watch for Friday and evaluate further.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  81  52  75 /  10  10  50  10
Carlsbad                       53  87  48  77 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         62  82  55  83 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  60  85  52  77 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  70  40  67 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          55  82  46  72 /  10  20  30   0
Marfa                          49  83  40  69 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  52  76 /  10  10  40  10
Odessa                         62  83  51  76 /  10  10  40  10
Wink                           60  86  49  77 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Thursday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

10/80
407
FXUS64 KMAF 221712
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front has shifted winds from the northeast and east at
TAF issuance, but winds will veer around from the southeast by
around 00Z and increase overnight. MVFR or IFR CIGs will develop
at most eastern TAF sites including MAF 06Z-12Z and remain
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to push south tonight and should stall out
around the Pecos River by the morning. Main result will be
slightly cooler temps in the upper 80s/low 90s and easterly
surface winds across the Permian Basin. There will also be a
chance for some isolated thunderstorms as the boundary lifts
northward through the late afternoon and evening. A more active
weather pattern begins Thursday affecting most of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. A potent upper trough will move across the
central and southern Rockies and eventually become a closed low as
it moves east into the plains by Thursday night. A tightening
surface pressure gradient will cause windy conditions across much
of the CWA by Thursday afternoon and evening. The gusty winds may
have the potential to kick up some dust in the process, so will
add in some patchy blowing dust the forecast for the afternoon. A
strong upper jet associated with the passing trough will also
result some high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of
the adjacent plains through this same time frame. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for now. A dryline
will develop and be the focus for some thunderstorm activity. An
area of increased instability and shear will be enough to support
severe thunderstorms as the upper trough approaches and large
scale lift will aid thunderstorm development by late afternoon
Thursday and into the evening. West of the dryline will be very
dry air and gusty winds resulting in fire weather concerns. See
fire weather discussion below for more information.

By Friday afternoon we will be on the backside of the trough
under northwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface winds behind a
Pacific front. Even cooler air will reside over the area and
should bring temperatures back down closer to normal. The dryline
will have pushed east of the area by Friday morning, which will
likely limit any chances of precipitation heading into the
weekend. Fire weather will be a concern again Friday afternoon
with the very dry air and elevated winds continuing across much of
the area. As the aforementioned trough finally lifts out of the
area we should get a break from the winds on Saturday before a
weak trough moves across the central Rockies and will result in
elevated westerly winds again on Sunday.

Another strong trough is expected to impact the area sometime
early to mid next week. Depending on the track and timing, we
could yet again see some elevated winds, fire weather and another
chance for precipitation. Temperatures will look to remain in the
upper 70s and low 80s through mid week.

Fire Weather Discussion...
Models have finally come into agreement on the upper trough
expected thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. Latest
runs put it at the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and the Texas/OK
panhandles 12 hrs later. Thu afternoon, models mix from 850-825mb
east to 575-550mb west, w/the GFS slightly deeper than the NAM.
this SW-W flow will shunt the low-lvl thermal ridge more into the
central CWA, along w/accompanying critical RH up against a
sharpening dryline. Cloud cover is still the variable in question
Thu afternoon, but looks to be much less than yesterday. Latest
wind/RH fields suggest that the Presidio Valley and Loving County
can be added to the watch. Pecos County looks to have critical
winds Thu afternoon, but most of the county will be on the ern
side of the dryline, whereas Brewster will have the critical RH,
but not the 20` winds. Consequently, forecast RFTI for these
counties is low, and we`ll keep them out of the watch attm.

Friday looks to be another critical fire wx day as subsidence on
the backside of the trough continues mixing strong winds to the
sfc. Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep as Thursday, but a
critical fire wx day is still in order, mainly west of the Pecos.
The lowest RH/best winds look to be in the Big Bend Area. With a
watch already out for Thu, to avoid sowing a confusing product,
we`ll not issue any products fro Friday attm, but continue
emphasizing the hazard in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  61  82  52 /  10  10  10  40
Carlsbad                       90  57  90  48 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         88  62  84  55 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  62  87  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  58  77  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          85  57  84  46 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          88  49  85  42 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  62  83  53 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                         90  62  83  51 /   0  10  10  40
Wink                           92  60  88  49 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
702
FXUS64 KMAF 221053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows a weak cold front has stalled somewhere
south of KMAF, w/return flow still set to push it back north later
this morning. Sfc flow will generally veer throughout the day,
w/convective temps being reached invof KFST, spawning a cu field w/bases
~ 8 kft agl. After sunset, strong return flow develops in
response to a sfc trough running from Mexico north thru central
NM. LIFR/IFR cigs will be possible late KHOB/KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to push south tonight and should stall out
around the Pecos River by the morning. Main result will be
slightly cooler temps in the upper 80s/low 90s and easterly
surface winds across the Permian Basin. There will also be a
chance for some isolated thunderstorms as the boundary lifts
northward through the late afternoon and evening. A more active
weather pattern begins Thursday affecting most of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. A potent upper trough will move across the
central and southern Rockies and eventually become a closed low as
it moves east into the plains by Thursday night. A tightening
surface pressure gradient will cause windy conditions across much
of the CWA by Thursday afternoon and evening. The gusty winds may
have the potential to kick up some dust in the process, so will
add in some patchy blowing dust the forecast for the afternoon. A
strong upper jet associated with the passing trough will also
result some high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of
the adjacent plains through this same time frame. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for now. A dryline
will develop and be the focus for some thunderstorm activity. An
area of increased instability and shear will be enough to support
severe thunderstorms as the upper trough approaches and large
scale lift will aid thunderstorm development by late afternoon
Thursday and into the evening. West of the dryline will be very
dry air and gusty winds resulting in fire weather concerns. See
fire weather discussion below for more information.

By Friday afternoon we will be on the backside of the trough
under northwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface winds behind a
Pacific front. Even cooler air will reside over the area and
should bring temperatures back down closer to normal. The dryline
will have pushed east of the area by Friday morning, which will
likely limit any chances of precipitation heading into the
weekend. Fire weather will be a concern again Friday afternoon
with the very dry air and elevated winds continuing across much of
the area. As the aforementioned trough finally lifts out of the
area we should get a break from the winds on Saturday before a
weak trough moves across the central Rockies and will result in
elevated westerly winds again on Sunday.

Another strong trough is expected to impact the area sometime
early to mid next week. Depending on the track and timing, we
could yet again see some elevated winds, fire weather and another
chance for precipitation. Temperatures will look to remain in the
upper 70s and low 80s through mid week.

Fire Weather Discussion...
Models have finally come into agreement on the upper trough
expected thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. Latest
runs put it at the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and the Texas/OK
panhandles 12 hrs later. Thu afternoon, models mix from 850-825mb
east to 575-550mb west, w/the GFS slightly deeper than the NAM.
this SW-W flow will shunt the low-lvl thermal ridge more into the
central CWA, along w/accompanying critical RH up against a
sharpening dryline. Cloud cover is still the variable in question
Thu afternoon, but looks to be much less than yesterday. Latest
wind/RH fields suggest that the Presidio Valley and Loving County
can be added to the watch. Pecos County looks to have critical
winds Thu afternoon, but most of the county will be on the ern
side of the dryline, whereas Brewster will have the critical RH,
but not the 20` winds. Consequently, forecast RFTI for these
counties is low, and we`ll keep them out of the watch attm.

Friday looks to be another critical fire wx day as subsidence on
the backside of the trough continues mixing strong winds to the
sfc. Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep as Thursday, but a
critical fire wx day is still in order, mainly west of the Pecos.
The lowest RH/best winds look to be in the Big Bend Area. With a
watch already out for Thu, to avoid sowing a confusing product,
we`ll not issue any products fro Friday attm, but continue
emphasizing the hazard in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  61  82  52 /  10  10  10  40
Carlsbad                       90  57  90  48 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         88  62  84  55 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  62  87  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  58  77  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          85  57  84  46 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          88  49  85  42 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  62  83  53 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                         90  62  83  51 /   0  10  10  40
Wink                           92  60  88  49 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44
319
FXUS64 KMAF 221003
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to push south tonight and should stall out
around the Pecos River by the morning. Main result will be
slightly cooler temps in the upper 80s/low 90s and easterly
surface winds across the Permian Basin. There will also be a
chance for some isolated thunderstorms as the boundary lifts
northward through the late afternoon and evening. A more active
weather pattern begins Thursday affecting most of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico. A potent upper trough will move across the
central and southern Rockies and eventually become a closed low as
it moves east into the plains by Thursday night. A tightening
surface pressure gradient will cause windy conditions across much
of the CWA by Thursday afternoon and evening. The gusty winds may
have the potential to kick up some dust in the process, so will
add in some patchy blowing dust the forecast for the afternoon. A
strong upper jet associated with the passing trough will also
result some high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and parts of
the adjacent plains through this same time frame. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for now. A dryline
will develop and be the focus for some thunderstorm activity. An
area of increased instability and shear will be enough to support
severe thunderstorms as the upper trough approaches and large
scale lift will aid thunderstorm development by late afternoon
Thursday and into the evening. West of the dryline will be very
dry air and gusty winds resulting in fire weather concerns. See
fire weather discussion below for more information.

By Friday afternoon we will be on the backside of the trough
under northwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface winds behind a
Pacific front. Even cooler air will reside over the area and
should bring temperatures back down closer to normal. The dryline
will have pushed east of the area by Friday morning, which will
likely limit any chances of precipitation heading into the
weekend. Fire weather will be a concern again Friday afternoon
with the very dry air and elevated winds continuing across much of
the area. As the aforementioned trough finally lifts out of the
area we should get a break from the winds on Saturday before a
weak trough moves across the central Rockies and will result in
elevated westerly winds again on Sunday.

Another strong trough is expected to impact the area sometime
early to mid next week. Depending on the track and timing, we
could yet again see some elevated winds, fire weather and another
chance for precipitation. Temperatures will look to remain in the
upper 70s and low 80s through mid week.

Fire Weather Discussion...
Models have finally come into agreement on the upper trough
expected thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. Latest
runs put it at the Four Corners by 00Z Fri, and the Texas/OK
panhandles 12 hrs later. Thu afternoon, models mix from 850-825mb
east to 575-550mb west, w/the GFS slightly deeper than the NAM.
this SW-W flow will shunt the low-lvl thermal ridge more into the
central CWA, along w/accompanying critical RH up against a
sharpening dryline. Cloud cover is still the variable in question
Thu afternoon, but looks to be much less than yesterday. Latest
wind/RH fields suggest that the Presidio Valley and Loving County
can be added to the watch. Pecos County looks to have critical
winds Thu afternoon, but most of the county will be on the ern
side of the dryline, whereas Brewster will have the critical RH,
but not the 20` winds. Consequently, forecast RFTI for these
counties is low, and we`ll keep them out of the watch attm.

Friday looks to be another critical fire wx day as subsidence on
the backside of the trough continues mixing strong winds to the
sfc. Forecast mixing isn`t quite as deep as Thursday, but a
critical fire wx day is still in order, mainly west of the Pecos.
The lowest RH/best winds look to be in the Big Bend Area. With a
watch already out for Thu, to avoid sowing a confusing product,
we`ll not issue any products fro Friday attm, but continue
emphasizing the hazard in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  61  82  52 /  10  10  10  40
Carlsbad                       90  57  90  48 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         88  62  84  55 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  62  87  52 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  58  77  42 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          85  57  84  46 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          88  49  85  42 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  62  83  53 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                         90  62  83  51 /   0  10  10  40
Wink                           92  60  88  49 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06
872
FXUS64 KMAF 220539
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows a weak cold front just hitting KMAF, and
forecast to move not much further south before return flow pushes
it back north later this morning. North of this feature, models
develop a couple of hours of IFR stratus at KHOB before
dissipating. Sfc flow will then generally veer throughout the
day, w/convective temps being reached south of the front, spawning
a cu field invof KINK/KFST/KPEQ, w/bases 5-8 kft agl. After
sunset, strong return flow develops in response to a sfc trough
running from Mexico north thru central NM. IFR/MVFR cigs begin
developing KMAF/KINK near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few TSRA are around the area, but should not impact the TAF
sites. A cold front will edge into HOB/MAF this evening with only
an easterly wind less than 10kts. Have introduced MVFR CIGS around
09Z at HOB and 15Z MAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the southcentral part of the country
with northeast flow over the area.  An upper level trough is
beginning to move over the West Coast with an upper trough impacting
the Great Lakes area.  Temperatures today will be well above normal
with highs expected to be a little warmer than yesterday.  In fact,
record highs will likely be met or surpassed today for Midland with
a forecasted high of 96 degrees and a record high of 92 degrees set
in 1995. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the
higher terrain and surrounding area. A cold front will push into the
northern areas of the CWA this evening. There is a slight chance
convection may develop across northeastern sections of the CWA this
evening as a result of this front. By Wednesday morning the front
will likely be near the Pecos River. There might be some brief
patchy fog across portions of the Permian Basin Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging will continue over the region on Wednesday but
temperatures are expected to be a little cooler, especially across
the northern CWA.

On Thursday, the upper trough previously over the West Coast will
begin to move over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  A tight
surface pressure gradient will develop across the area during
Thursday afternoon contributing to very windy conditions across the
whole CWA.  High winds may occur in the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning Thursday afternoon. A dryline will also develop across the
area during the afternoon. Models are showing a surface trough
developing across the Upper Trans Pecos during the afternoon hours.
There is potential of strong to severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours given high bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates
and decent CAPE along and just east of the dryline.  To the west of
the dryline Thursday afternoon there is potential critical fire
weather with low RH values and windy conditions. See the fire
weather discussion below. High temperatures mostly in the 80s are
expected on Thursday as lower heights move over the area in
association with the upper trough. Both the GFS and NAM12 show the
dryline east of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds across the area.  A Pacific front will move across the area
Friday and result in temperatures mostly in the 70s.  Upper ridging
will once again develop on Saturday with another weaker trough
impacting the area on Sunday but not likely bringing any
precipitation.  Yet another trough appears to move over the region
sometime early to mid next week.  Temperatures in the extended are
expected to be mostly in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

It will be dry across the area tomorrow, but winds will once again
be light. Thursday a deep upper low will approach the area pushing a
pacific front through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A line of
thunderstorms will develop along the front and push east with very
dry and windy conditions moving in behind. Critical fire weather
conditions may develop mainly west of the Pecos River into the Davis
Mountains which will not receive any of the expected rainfall;
therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday
afternoon. It will also be very wind farther east but higher
dewpoints will prevent critical fire weather conditions from
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  60  81  52 /  10  10   0  60
Carlsbad                       84  53  90  49 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         88  60  83  56 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  90  59  85  54 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  74  42 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          81  53  82  47 /   0   0  20  30
Marfa                          86  46  82  41 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  61  81  53 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         87  61  81  52 /   0   0  10  40
Wink                           88  59  86  50 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/06/44
662
FXUS64 KMAF 212330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few TSRA are around the area, but should not impact the TAF
sites. A cold front will edge into HOB/MAF this evening with only
an easterly wind less than 10kts. Have introduced MVFR CIGS around
09Z at HOB and 15Z MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the southcentral part of the country
with northeast flow over the area.  An upper level trough is
beginning to move over the West Coast with an upper trough impacting
the Great Lakes area.  Temperatures today will be well above normal
with highs expected to be a little warmer than yesterday.  In fact,
record highs will likely be met or surpassed today for Midland with
a forecasted high of 96 degrees and a record high of 92 degrees set
in 1995. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the
higher terrain and surrounding area. A cold front will push into the
northern areas of the CWA this evening. There is a slight chance
convection may develop across northeastern sections of the CWA this
evening as a result of this front. By Wednesday morning the front
will likely be near the Pecos River. There might be some brief
patchy fog across portions of the Permian Basin Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging will continue over the region on Wednesday but
temperatures are expected to be a little cooler, especially across
the northern CWA.

On Thursday, the upper trough previously over the West Coast will
begin to move over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  A tight
surface pressure gradient will develop across the area during
Thursday afternoon contributing to very windy conditions across the
whole CWA.  High winds may occur in the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning Thursday afternoon. A dryline will also develop across the
area during the afternoon. Models are showing a surface trough
developing across the Upper Trans Pecos during the afternoon hours.
There is potential of strong to severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours given high bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates
and decent CAPE along and just east of the dryline.  To the west of
the dryline Thursday afternoon there is potential critical fire
weather with low RH values and windy conditions. See the fire
weather discussion below. High temperatures mostly in the 80s are
expected on Thursday as lower heights move over the area in
association with the upper trough. Both the GFS and NAM12 show the
dryline east of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds across the area.  A Pacific front will move across the area
Friday and result in temperatures mostly in the 70s.  Upper ridging
will once again develop on Saturday with another weaker trough
impacting the area on Sunday but not likely bringing any
precipitation.  Yet another trough appears to move over the region
sometime early to mid next week.  Temperatures in the extended are
expected to be mostly in the 70s and 80s.

FIRE WEATHER...

It will be dry across the area tomorrow, but winds will once again
be light. Thursday a deep upper low will approach the area pushing a
pacific front through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A line of
thunderstorms will develop along the front and push east with very
dry and windy conditions moving in behind. Critical fire weather
conditions may develop mainly west of the Pecos River into the Davis
Mountains which will not receive any of the expected rainfall;
therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday
afternoon. It will also be very wind farther east but higher
dewpoints will prevent critical fire weather conditions from
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  86  60  81 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       51  84  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  88  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  59  90  59  85 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  56  74 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  81  53  82 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          47  86  46  82 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           57  88  59  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
131
FXUS64 KMAF 211931
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge is over the southcentral part of the country
with northeast flow over the area.  An upper level trough is
beginning to move over the West Coast with an upper trough impacting
the Great Lakes area.  Temperatures today will be well above normal
with highs expected to be a little warmer than yesterday.  In fact,
record highs will likely be met or surpassed today for Midland with
a forecasted high of 96 degrees and a record high of 92 degrees set
in 1995. There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms across the
higher terrain and surrounding area. A cold front will push into the
northern areas of the CWA this evening. There is a slight chance
convection may develop across northeastern sections of the CWA this
evening as a result of this front. By Wednesday morning the front
will likely be near the Pecos River. There might be some brief
patchy fog across portions of the Permian Basin Wednesday morning.
Upper ridging will continue over the region on Wednesday but
temperatures are expected to be a little cooler, especially across
the northern CWA.

On Thursday, the upper trough previously over the West Coast will
begin to move over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  A tight
surface pressure gradient will develop across the area during
Thursday afternoon contributing to very windy conditions across the
whole CWA.  High winds may occur in the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning Thursday afternoon. A dryline will also develop across the
area during the afternoon. Models are showing a surface trough
developing across the Upper Trans Pecos during the afternoon hours.
There is potential of strong to severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours given high bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates
and decent CAPE along and just east of the dryline.  To the west of
the dryline Thursday afternoon there is potential critical fire
weather with low RH values and windy conditions. See the fire
weather discussion below. High temperatures mostly in the 80s are
expected on Thursday as lower heights move over the area in
association with the upper trough. Both the GFS and NAM12 show the
dryline east of the CWA by Friday morning.

The upper trough will move over the region on Friday with gusty west
winds across the area.  A Pacific front will move across the area
Friday and result in temperatures mostly in the 70s.  Upper ridging
will once again develop on Saturday with another weaker trough
impacting the area on Sunday but not likely bringing any
precipitation.  Yet another trough appears to move over the region
sometime early to mid next week.  Temperatures in the extended are
expected to be mostly in the 70s and 80s.

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will be dry across the area tomorrow, but winds will once again
be light. Thursday a deep upper low will approach the area pushing a
pacific front through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. A line of
thunderstorms will develop along the front and push east with very
dry and windy conditions moving in behind. Critical fire weather
conditions may develop mainly west of the Pecos River into the Davis
Mountains which will not receive any of the expected rainfall;
therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday
afternoon. It will also be very wind farther east but higher
dewpoints will prevent critical fire weather conditions from
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  86  60  81 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       51  84  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  88  60  83 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  59  90  59  85 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  56  74 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  81  53  82 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          47  86  46  82 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  81 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           57  88  59  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/80
046
FXUS64 KMAF 211827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
127 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with light west winds
shifting from the northeast around 06Z behind a weak cold front.
Cannot rule out IFR/MVFR CIG & VIS behind the front but confidence
is not high enough to place in the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another day record breaking day of high temperatures looks
to be on tap today for Midland International Air and Space Port.
Current record high temperature for Midland is 92 set in 1995.
Forecasts highs across the Permian Basin along I-20 are expected
to be in the mid 90s. There will be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms to form off the Davis Mountains late this afternoon,
but do not expect much impact from any storm that does develop. A
weak cold front will move southward Tuesday evening and stall
across the southern Permian Basin by Wednesday morning. Front will
bring some cooler temperatures for Wednesday, but not much in the
way of rain.

Focus will turn to Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves across
the western US and into the Four Corners region. Multiple hazards
will be in play during this time. The upper level winds will be
fairly strong associated with this system. Winds at 850mb will be
strong for most of Thursday as the low approaches and are likely
to increase by Thursday evening. Wind Advisory conditions will be
possible for portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico as winds mix down through late afternoon and into the early
evening. Strong southwest flow aloft may also cause some high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. As strong southerly winds
pick up in the afternoon, a dryline will set up along the TX/NM
border. Models indicate storms should form off the dryline and
move east through Thursday evening. CAPE values ranging from
500-1000 J/kg in combination with shear values of 50-60 kts and
steep lapse rates will be enough to support the potential for some
severe storms. The main threats with these storms will be hail
and damaging winds. West of the dryline will be very dry air and
windy conditions that will push eastward with the Pacific front
causing some fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday. See
Fire Weather Discussion below for more information.

Cooler air will reside behind the Pacific front for Friday as
windy conditions continue. Winds should calm down for one day on
Saturday before picking up again with the passing of weak trough
to our north on Sunday. The active weather pattern looks to continue
early next week as another potent trough deepens to our west and
moves east across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
Models continue coming into alignment on bringing an upper- lvl
trough thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. While
models are still in disagreement on timing of the trough, the
tracks are similar and portend windy conditions Thu afternoon
and/or Fri., again, dependent on timing. GFS forecast soundings
Thursday mix out to above H85 in the east, where SW 40kt flow is
forecast, and above H6 in the west, where SW 45-50kt is forecast.
The NAM soundings aren`t as pronounced, but more cloud cover is
advertised. Mixing isn`t as deep on Friday, but critical 20` winds
will still be very much in play. Despite lower anticipated highs
each day, critical RH will not be in question for most of the
region. Fire Danger is high and ERCs are above normal, and these
should climb between now and then. Attm, cloud cover (as usual) is
the variable up in the air. For now, we`ll bang this hard in the
HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  60  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       94  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  60  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  97  59  94  59 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  48  88  48 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           96  60  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
041
FXUS64 KMAF 211002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a cu field invof KFST by late morning,
developing everywhere except KPEQ the early afternoon, w/bases
6-11 kft agl. 35-40kt LLJ forecast to develop after sunset will
keep winds up at KINK/KFST/KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Yet another day record breaking day of high temperatures looks
to be on tap today for Midland International Air and Space Port.
Current record high temperature for Midland is 92 set in 1995.
Forecasts highs across the Permian Basin along I-20 are expected
to be in the mid 90s. There will be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms to form off the Davis Mountains late this afternoon,
but do not expect much impact from any storm that does develop. A
weak cold front will move southward Tuesday evening and stall
across the southern Permian Basin by Wednesday morning. Front will
bring some cooler temperatures for Wednesday, but not much in the
way of rain.

Focus will turn to Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves across
the western US and into the Four Corners region. Multiple hazards
will be in play during this time. The upper level winds will be
fairly strong associated with this system. Winds at 850mb will be
strong for most of Thursday as the low approaches and are likely
to increase by Thursday evening. Wind Advisory conditions will be
possible for portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico as winds mix down through late afternoon and into the early
evening. Strong southwest flow aloft may also cause some high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. As strong southerly winds
pick up in the afternoon, a dryline will set up along the TX/NM
border. Models indicate storms should form off the dryline and
move east through Thursday evening. CAPE values ranging from
500-1000 J/kg in combination with shear values of 50-60 kts and
steep lapse rates will be enough to support the potential for some
severe storms. The main threats with these storms will be hail
and damaging winds. West of the dryline will be very dry air and
windy conditions that will push eastward with the Pacific front
causing some fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday. See
Fire Weather Discussion below for more information.

Cooler air will reside behind the Pacific front for Friday as
windy conditions continue. Winds should calm down for one day on
Saturday before picking up again with the passing of weak trough
to our north on Sunday. The active weather pattern looks to continue
early next week as another potent trough deepens to our west and
moves east across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
Models continue coming into alignment on bringing an upper- lvl
trough thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. While
models are still in disagreement on timing of the trough, the
tracks are similar and portend windy conditions Thu afternoon
and/or Fri., again, dependent on timing. GFS forecast soundings
Thursday mix out to above H85 in the east, where SW 40kt flow is
forecast, and above H6 in the west, where SW 45-50kt is forecast.
The NAM soundings aren`t as pronounced, but more cloud cover is
advertised. Mixing isn`t as deep on Friday, but critical 20` winds
will still be very much in play. Despite lower anticipated highs
each day, critical RH will not be in question for most of the
region. Fire Danger is high and ERCs are above normal, and these
should climb between now and then. Attm, cloud cover (as usual) is
the variable up in the air. For now, we`ll bang this hard in the
HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  60  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       94  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  60  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  97  59  94  59 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  48  88  48 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           96  60  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/06/44
320
FXUS64 KMAF 210959
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
459 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Yet another day record breaking day of high temperatures looks
to be on tap today for Midland International Air and Space Port.
Current record high temperature for Midland is 92 set in 1995.
Forecasts highs across the Permian Basin along I-20 are expected
to be in the mid 90s. There will be a chance for isolated
thunderstorms to form off the Davis Mountains late this afternoon,
but do not expect much impact from any storm that does develop. A
weak cold front will move southward Tuesday evening and stall
across the southern Permian Basin by Wednesday morning. Front will
bring some cooler temperatures for Wednesday, but not much in the
way of rain.

Focus will turn to Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves across
the western US and into the Four Corners region. Multiple hazards
will be in play during this time. The upper level winds will be
fairly strong associated with this system. Winds at 850mb will be
strong for most of Thursday as the low approaches and are likely
to increase by Thursday evening. Wind Advisory conditions will be
possible for portions of the Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico as winds mix down through late afternoon and into the early
evening. Strong southwest flow aloft may also cause some high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains. As strong southerly winds
pick up in the afternoon, a dryline will set up along the TX/NM
border. Models indicate storms should form off the dryline and
move east through Thursday evening. CAPE values ranging from
500-1000 J/kg in combination with shear values of 50-60 kts and
steep lapse rates will be enough to support the potential for some
severe storms. The main threats with these storms will be hail
and damaging winds. West of the dryline will be very dry air and
windy conditions that will push eastward with the Pacific front
causing some fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday. See
Fire Weather Discussion below for more information.

Cooler air will reside behind the Pacific front for Friday as
windy conditions continue. Winds should calm down for one day on
Saturday before picking up again with the passing of weak trough
to our north on Sunday. The active weather pattern looks to continue
early next week as another potent trough deepens to our west and
moves east across the plains.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
Models continue coming into alignment on bringing an upper- lvl
trough thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Thu/Fri. While
models are still in disagreement on timing of the trough, the
tracks are similar and portend windy conditions Thu afternoon
and/or Fri., again, dependent on timing. GFS forecast soundings
Thursday mix out to above H85 in the east, where SW 40kt flow is
forecast, and above H6 in the west, where SW 45-50kt is forecast.
The NAM soundings aren`t as pronounced, but more cloud cover is
advertised. Mixing isn`t as deep on Friday, but critical 20` winds
will still be very much in play. Despite lower anticipated highs
each day, critical RH will not be in question for most of the
region. Fire Danger is high and ERCs are above normal, and these
should climb between now and then. Attm, cloud cover (as usual) is
the variable up in the air. For now, we`ll bang this hard in the
HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  60  88  61 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       94  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  60  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  97  59  94  59 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  51  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  48  88  48 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           96  60  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         96  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/06
640
FXUS64 KMAF 210525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a cu field invof KFST by late morning,
developing west and north during the early afternoon, w/high bases
of 7-11 kft agl. 35-40kt LLJ forecast to develop after sunset will
keep winds up at KINK/KFST/KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours. Current -SHRA
should diminish this evening. Winds will be light out of the SSW
tonight at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in
the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains
this afternoon. Dewpoints are pretty low (20s/30s) so convection
will be high based and low QPF, struggling to maintain itself away
from the mountains. There is very little shear so the severe
threat today will be low. The record high for today is 89 set in
1934 which we have already reached so an old record will fall.
The heat returns tomorrow with another record high expected before
a weak cold front enters the area dropping temperatures back to
only around normal on Wednesday.

Thursday will get interesting as a deep upper level low moves into
the western US near the Four Corners region. Surface pressure
falls ahead of the low will draw moisture back west into
southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains increasing
instability. Models are in good agreement that a line of storms
will develop along a Pacific front and push east across the area
Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly surface flow will combine
with strong westerly mid level winds to produce ample shear so
that some storms should become severe. West winds behind the
Pacific front will advect in dry air possibly producing a brief
fire weather threat for our far western CWA in the afternoon.

The Pacific front will rapidly push east followed by a reinforcing
push of cooler Canadian air Friday night. This will keep
temperatures closer to normal for the end of the week/weekend. An
upper ridge quickly gives way to another trough early next week
keeping the near normal temps through the end of the forecast
period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  57  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       92  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  61  91  60 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  91  59 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  59  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          89  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          83  45  85  48 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  57  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  58  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           94  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/06/44
203
FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours. Current -SHRA
should diminish this evening. Winds will be light out of the SSW
tonight at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in
the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains
this afternoon. Dewpoints are pretty low (20s/30s) so convection
will be high based and low QPF, struggling to maintain itself away
from the mountains. There is very little shear so the severe
threat today will be low. The record high for today is 89 set in
1934 which we have already reached so an old record will fall.
The heat returns tomorrow with another record high expected before
a weak cold front enters the area dropping temperatures back to
only around normal on Wednesday.

Thursday will get interesting as a deep upper level low moves into
the western US near the Four Corners region. Surface pressure
falls ahead of the low will draw moisture back west into
southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains increasing
instability. Models are in good agreement that a line of storms
will develop along a Pacific front and push east across the area
Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly surface flow will combine
with strong westerly mid level winds to produce ample shear so
that some storms should become severe. West winds behind the
Pacific front will advect in dry air possibly producing a brief
fire weather threat for our far western CWA in the afternoon.

The Pacific front will rapidly push east followed by a reinforcing
push of cooler Canadian air Friday night. This will keep
temperatures closer to normal for the end of the week/weekend. An
upper ridge quickly gives way to another trough early next week
keeping the near normal temps through the end of the forecast
period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  94  57  83 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       53  92  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  92  61  91 /  10  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  62  93  62  91 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  79  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  89  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  83  45  85 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  93  57  86 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         61  93  58  86 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           56  94  55  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24
074
FXUS64 KMAF 201945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in
the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains
this afternoon. Dewpoints are pretty low (20s/30s) so convection
will be high based and low QPF, struggling to maintain itself away
from the mountains. There is very little shear so the severe
threat today will be low. The record high for today is 89 set in
1934 which we have already reached so an old record will fall.
The heat returns tomorrow with another record high expected before
a weak cold front enters the area dropping temperatures back to
only around normal on Wednesday.

Thursday will get interesting as a deep upper level low moves into
the western US near the Four Corners region. Surface pressure
falls ahead of the low will draw moisture back west into
southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains increasing
instability. Models are in good agreement that a line of storms
will develop along a Pacific front and push east across the area
Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly surface flow will combine
with strong westerly mid level winds to produce ample shear so
that some storms should become severe. West winds behind the
Pacific front will advect in dry air possibly producing a brief
fire weather threat for our far western CWA in the afternoon.

The Pacific front will rapidly push east followed by a reinforcing
push of cooler Canadian air Friday night. This will keep
temperatures closer to normal for the end of the week/weekend. An
upper ridge quickly gives way to another trough early next week
keeping the near normal temps through the end of the forecast
period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  94  57  83 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       53  92  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  92  61  91 /  10  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  62  93  62  91 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  79  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  89  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  83  45  85 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  93  57  86 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         61  93  58  86 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           56  94  55  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/10
524
FXUS64 KMAF 201716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours although there
is a slight chance of low ceilings for HOB, MAF, and INK Tuesday
morning. Winds will be fairly light out of the southwest this
afternoon with elevated and gusty southerly winds this evening at
FST and MAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Positive anomalys within mid level ridging along with sw-w surface
winds will push high temps to records again today. High based
tstms are expected to develop INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and possibly
extend newd into NW PB today where very steep LRs modulate
instability despite limited low level mstr and as a shrtwv trof
move across the area. Strong convective inhibition across the
eastern CWFA will precluded mention tstms there today. On Tue the
convective potential will be farther e/se into the Lower Trans
Pecos and CINH looks to be formidable in the east. More record
high temps are expected again Tue as latest MOS continues to
trend temps higher, this makes since with 85h thermal ridge will
be farther e. A cold front will near the n-ne CWFA around 03Z/Wed
then pushing to around the Pecos River by Wed AM. The front looks
to stall and can still be seen the MSLP pattern across the PB at
03Z/Thur, thus a little cooler Wed. A sharp mid level trof will
back the flow and hold a lee trof in a wwd position during the
day Thur allowing for the dryline to form along a line from
Lamesa-Gardendale-Sanderson, it could be a little farther w?
Models have come into a little better agreement with GFS aligning
moreso with other solutions of holding low level mstr farther w.
West of the dryline it is likely to be very windy with 85h winds
of 35-40kts accompanied by obvious high end fire wx concerns, very
windy e of the dryline too! Wind advisories will probably be
needed (MEX CNM/MAF 38/37kts), high wind for GDP/Davis Mtns. Along
and e of dryline severe storms will be possible. Cooler, but
still windy on Fri. A warming trend will start back on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns continue build for SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos
leading into Thur when high end conditions will be possible,
including the BBNP. A fire effective low level thermal ridge will
be positioned across the mentioned areas and strong wind in the
5-10KFT layer will intersect the thermal ridge. The warmest and
lowest RHs will be found from the wrn PB into the Trans Pecos and
the 10hr-100hr fuels are expected to be very dry. Decision makers
across the SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos are advised to closely follow
the fire wx forecast leading into Thur. There are some similarities
between Thur forecast wx and past cases that resulted in large
problematic fires. Fire wx concerns could extend into Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  54  94  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  59 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  60  95  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  54  91  52 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  87  50 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  59  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           94  57  96  55 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
490
FXUS64 KMAF 201112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southwesterly winds will generally be around 12kt or less today,
and will back to the southeast this evening. Winds are expected to
increase and become gusty at MAF and FST after 21/00Z. A few
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, and could potentially
affect area terminals. However, probability is too low to include
mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Positive anomalys within mid level ridging along with sw-w surface
winds will push high temps to records again today. High based
tstms are expected to develop INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and possibly
extend newd into NW PB today where very steep LRs modulate
instability despite limited low level mstr and as a shrtwv trof
move across the area. Strong convective inhibition across the
eastern CWFA will precluded mention tstms there today. On Tue the
convective potential will be farther e/se into the Lower Trans
Pecos and CINH looks to be formidable in the east. More record
high temps are expected again Tue as latest MOS continues to
trend temps higher, this makes since with 85h thermal ridge will
be farther e. A cold front will near the n-ne CWFA around 03Z/Wed
then pushing to around the Pecos River by Wed AM. The front looks
to stall and can still be seen the MSLP pattern across the PB at
03Z/Thur, thus a little cooler Wed. A sharp mid level trof will
back the flow and hold a lee trof in a wwd position during the
day Thur allowing for the dryline to form along a line from
Lamesa-Gardendale-Sanderson, it could be a little farther w?
Models have come into a little better agreement with GFS aligning
moreso with other solutions of holding low level mstr farther w.
West of the dryline it is likely to be very windy with 85h winds
of 35-40kts accompanied by obvious high end fire wx concerns, very
windy e of the dryline too! Wind advisories will probably be
needed (MEX CNM/MAF 38/37kts), high wind for GDP/Davis Mtns. Along
and e of dryline severe storms will be possible. Cooler, but
still windy on Fri. A warming trend will start back on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns continue build for SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos
leading into Thur when high end conditions will be possible,
including the BBNP. A fire effective low level thermal ridge will
be positioned across the mentioned areas and strong wind in the
5-10KFT layer will intersect the thermal ridge. The warmest and
lowest RHs will be found from the wrn PB into the Trans Pecos and
the 10hr-100hr fuels are expected to be very dry. Decision makers
across the SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos are advised to closely follow
the fire wx forecast leading into Thur. There are some similarities
between Thur forecast wx and past cases that resulted in large
problematic fires. Fire wx concerns could extend into Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  54  94  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  59 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  60  95  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  54  91  52 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  87  50 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  59  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           94  57  96  55 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
579
FXUS64 KMAF 200742
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Positive anomalys within mid level ridging along with sw-w surface
winds will push high temps to records again today. High based
tstms are expected to develop INVOF Davis/Glass Mtns and possibly
extend newd into NW PB today where very steep LRs modulate
instability despite limited low level mstr and as a shrtwv trof
move across the area. Strong convective inhibition across the
eastern CWFA will precluded mention tstms there today. On Tue the
convective potential will be farther e/se into the Lower Trans
Pecos and CINH looks to be formidable in the east. More record
high temps are expected again Tue as latest MOS continues to
trend temps higher, this makes since with 85h thermal ridge will
be farther e. A cold front will near the n-ne CWFA around 03Z/Wed
then pushing to around the Pecos River by Wed AM. The front looks
to stall and can still be seen the MSLP pattern across the PB at
03Z/Thur, thus a little cooler Wed. A sharp mid level trof will
back the flow and hold a lee trof in a wwd position during the
day Thur allowing for the dryline to form along a line from
Lamesa-Gardendale-Sanderson, it could be a little farther w?
Models have come into a little better agreement with GFS aligning
moreso with other solutions of holding low level mstr farther w.
West of the dryline it is likely to be very windy with 85h winds
of 35-40kts accompanied by obvious high end fire wx concerns, very
windy e of the dryline too! Wind advisories will probably be
needed (MEX CNM/MAF 38/37kts), high wind for GDP/Davis Mtns. Along
and e of dryline severe storms will be possible. Cooler, but
still windy on Fri. A warming trend will start back on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns continue build for SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos
leading into Thur when high end conditions will be possible,
including the BBNP. A fire effective low level thermal ridge will
be positioned across the mentioned areas and strong wind in the
5-10KFT layer will intersect the thermal ridge. The warmest and
lowest RHs will be found from the wrn PB into the Trans Pecos and
the 10hr-100hr fuels are expected to be very dry. Decision makers
across the SE NM/W PB/Trans Pecos are advised to closely follow
the fire wx forecast leading into Thur. There are some similarities
between Thur forecast wx and past cases that resulted in large
problematic fires. Fire wx concerns could extend into Fri as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  54  94  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  59 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  60  95  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  54  91  52 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  87  50 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  59  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  60  94  56 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           94  57  96  55 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
030
FXUS64 KMAF 200534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mainly southerly winds will prevail through
the forecast period. Wind gusts at MAF, INK, and PEQ will continue
the next few hours before diminishing, with some concern for LLWS
at MAF until approximately 09Z. Wind speeds Monday will remain
around 12kt or less, with gusty winds expected to return to MAF
and FST after 21/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expand the mention of isolated showers
and thunderstorms to include southeast New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of West Texas. Increased cloud cover this evening.

updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday...Convection is firing up
along the southern and western mountains. Near record or record
heat the next couple of days followed by possible dryline
convection late Thursday. And since it is meteorological Spring
(and it is West Texas/Southeast New Mexico after all) we can`t
forget the strong winds possible late Thursday into Friday.

Ridging aloft along with low level thermal ridging will bring near
record/record heat to the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Low-level
upslope flow...decent moisture...and strong heating will lead to
diurnal convection over the Davis/Glass/Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn/evening as well as Monday aftn/evening. Looks like Tuesday
will remain dry as ridging peaks over the CWA with stronger
subsidence.

As a cold front sags south thru the Central Plains some "cooler"
air will filter into the area Wednesday resulting in still well
above normal temps...just several degrees cooler.

A potent upper level system moving into CA early in the week will
move into the south-central Rockies and then into the Plains. It`s
looking like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement on the
strength and track of the system. Low/mid level moisture looks to
be drawn northwest into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Thursday ahead of a dryline/Pacific Cold Front. Convection
looks possible in the Central/Eastern Permian Basin late Thursday
before moving rapidly east during the evening. It is still early
so won`t get too detailed with the forecast. It also looks very
windy...with the GFS MOS indc strong winds late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to watch this for wind and fire weather
highlights/concerns.

Ridging will bring dry weather next weekend with temps once again
above...if not well above normal by next Sunday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  94  59 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       91  55  94  58 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         89  58  92  60 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  61  95  63 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  60  82  60 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  56  92  55 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          84  54  87  53 /  20  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  59  94  59 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  58  93  58 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           93  59  96  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
340
FXUS64 KMAF 192340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Currently, isolated thunderstorms are popping up across
the Trans/Pecos area but will die off later tonight.
VFR conditions will prevail across much of the area tonight
with southerly winds at most locations. Winds could be gusty
for a short period of time tonight for MAF, FST, and INK.
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expand the mention of isolated showers
and thunderstorms to include southeast New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of West Texas. Increased cloud cover this evening.

updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday...Convection is firing up
along the southern and western mountains. Near record or record
heat the next couple of days followed by possible dryline
convection late Thursday. And since it is meteorological Spring
(and it is West Texas/Southeast New Mexico after all) we can`t
forget the strong winds possible late Thursday into Friday.

Ridging aloft along with low level thermal ridging will bring near
record/record heat to the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Low-level
upslope flow...decent moisture...and strong heating will lead to
diurnal convection over the Davis/Glass/Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn/evening as well as Monday aftn/evening. Looks like Tuesday
will remain dry as ridging peaks over the CWA with stronger
subsidence.

As a cold front sags south thru the Central Plains some "cooler"
air will filter into the area Wednesday resulting in still well
above normal temps...just several degrees cooler.

A potent upper level system moving into CA early in the week will
move into the south-central Rockies and then into the Plains. It`s
looking like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement on the
strength and track of the system. Low/mid level moisture looks to
be drawn northwest into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Thursday ahead of a dryline/Pacific Cold Front. Convection
looks possible in the Central/Eastern Permian Basin late Thursday
before moving rapidly east during the evening. It is still early
so won`t get too detailed with the forecast. It also looks very
windy...with the GFS MOS indc strong winds late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to watch this for wind and fire weather
highlights/concerns.

Ridging will bring dry weather next weekend with temps once again
above...if not well above normal by next Sunday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       52  91  55  94 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         57  89  58  92 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  58  92  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  80  60  82 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          53  89  56  92 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          52  84  54  87 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         58  90  58  93 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           56  93  59  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

34
710
FXUS64 KMAF 192101 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
401 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expand the mention of isolated showers
and thunderstorms to include southeast New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of West Texas. Increased cloud cover this evening.

updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday...Convection is firing up
along the southern and western mountains. Near record or record
heat the next couple of days followed by possible dryline
convection late Thursday. And since it is meteorological Spring
(and it is West Texas/Southeast New Mexico after all) we can`t
forget the strong winds possible late Thursday into Friday.

Ridging aloft along with low level thermal ridging will bring near
record/record heat to the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Low-level
upslope flow...decent moisture...and strong heating will lead to
diurnal convection over the Davis/Glass/Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn/evening as well as Monday aftn/evening. Looks like Tuesday
will remain dry as ridging peaks over the CWA with stronger
subsidence.

As a cold front sags south thru the Central Plains some "cooler"
air will filter into the area Wednesday resulting in still well
above normal temps...just several degrees cooler.

A potent upper level system moving into CA early in the week will
move into the south-central Rockies and then into the Plains. It`s
looking like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement on the
strength and track of the system. Low/mid level moisture looks to
be drawn northwest into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Thursday ahead of a dryline/Pacific Cold Front. Convection
looks possible in the Central/Eastern Permian Basin late Thursday
before moving rapidly east during the evening. It is still early
so won`t get too detailed with the forecast. It also looks very
windy...with the GFS MOS indc strong winds late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to watch this for wind and fire weather
highlights/concerns.

Ridging will bring dry weather next weekend with temps once again
above...if not well above normal by next Sunday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       52  91  55  94 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         57  89  58  92 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  58  92  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  80  60  82 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          53  89  56  92 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          52  84  54  87 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         58  90  58  93 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           56  93  59  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
133
FXUS64 KMAF 191916
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday...Convection is firing up
along the southern and western mountains. Near record or record
heat the next couple of days followed by possible dryline
convection late Thursday. And since it is meteorological Spring
(and it is West Texas/Southeast New Mexico after all) we can`t
forget the strong winds possible late Thursday into Friday.

Ridging aloft along with low level thermal ridging will bring near
record/record heat to the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Low-level
upslope flow...decent moisture...and strong heating will lead to
diurnal convection over the Davis/Glass/Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn/evening as well as Monday aftn/evening. Looks like Tuesday
will remain dry as ridging peaks over the CWA with stronger
subsidence.

As a cold front sags south thru the Central Plains some "cooler"
air will filter into the area Wednesday resulting in still well
above normal temps...just several degrees cooler.

A potent upper level system moving into CA early in the week will
move into the south-central Rockies and then into the Plains. It`s
looking like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement on the
strength and track of the system. Low/mid level moisture looks to
be drawn northwest into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Thursday ahead of a dryline/Pacific Cold Front. Convection
looks possible in the Central/Eastern Permian Basin late Thursday
before moving rapidly east during the evening. It is still early
so won`t get too detailed with the forecast. It also looks very
windy...with the GFS MOS indc strong winds late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to watch this for wind and fire weather
highlights/concerns.

Ridging will bring dry weather next weekend with temps once again
above...if not well above normal by next Sunday.

&&

Strobin


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       52  91  55  94 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         57  89  58  92 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  58  92  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  80  60  82 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          53  89  56  92 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          52  84  54  87 /  20  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  91  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         58  90  58  93 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           56  93  59  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33
492
FXUS64 KMAF 191719
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light this afternoon out of the south to southwest
across the area and will become elevated with some gusts out of
the south to southeast this evening for MAF, FST, and INK. There
is a slight chance of fog for HOB briefly around 12z but do not
have much confidence in this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog is again expected this morning, dissipating by mid
morning. Anomalously high mid level heights and the presence of a
low level thermal ridge will ensure the continuation of
unseasonably warm wx thru Tue. A question is whether diurnally
driven SHRA/TSRA will develop in proximity to elevated heat
sources and/or in the east/south CWFA where low level mstr is
higher. Mid level LR`s will remain steep and the boundary layer
will be deeply well mixed each day. Today, high resolution models
favor isold high based storms from the Davis Mtns into the GDP
Mtns, of which we favor the Davis Mtns due to mstr considerations.
More of the same Mon/Tue except isold tstms will be possible in
the far ern CWFA. A cold front will near the nrn CWFA by Tue
evening, likely stalling just s of I-20. Wed a warm front maybe
across the nrn CWFA during max heating and if so a few tstms will
be possible, especially across the NE CWFA. Mid level height falls
occur in earnest Thur as a trough moves in from the west. Model
discrepancies continue, with GFS the outlier even wrt the Canadian
model. GFS is persistent that dry air will surge east during the
PM a delays the onset of the tstms until after 00Z/Fri, in part
due to a farther n and e position of surface low. It is likely to
be windy either way, just that will it be a s-se or sw-w wind? It
does make sense that precip will increase between 00Z-06Z Fri as
dryline and cold front collide, probably across the PB? Model
differences continue into Fri, but there is consensus that it will
be cooler. Question is how windy will it be, potentially very
windy? The edge will come off the high temps some Sat/Sun as
ensemble data shows 0 to +1 standard deviation in mid level
heights/low level temps.

FIRE WEATHER...
Lightning occurred yesterday with surface RHs around 20-25 pct in
the Davis/Glass Mtns. More of the same is expected today and Mon.
As such there is the potential for new fire starts especially
with the dry air that will follow each afternoon. Trans Pecos
including SE NM will undergo strong drying trend thru Thur.
Significant Fire Potential wind gradually increase across Trans
Pecos/SE NM/Wrn PB into Wed and moreso Thur when stronger winds
are expected. We continue to watch trends closely into Thur as
high end critical fire wx is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  52  93  53 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  57  93  57 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  58  92  59 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          89  53  91  53 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          85  49  87  49 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  58  91  58 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         87  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           92  55  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
805
FXUS64 KMAF 191119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expectation is still for MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds/fog to
develop this morning, mainly at MAF, INK, and HOB. Confidence for
IFR (potentially VLIFR) conditions in fog is highest at HOB and
INK, though low ceilings developing northwestward could affect MAF
within the first couple hours of the forecast period. Conditions
are expected to improve by mid-morning, with VFR conditions
prevailing areawide thereafter. Winds today will remain southerly
to southeasterly around 12kt or less, with increasing speeds/gusts
expected at MAF, INK, and FST after 20/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog is again expected this morning, dissipating by mid
morning. Anomalously high mid level heights and the presence of a
low level thermal ridge will ensure the continuation of
unseasonably warm wx thru Tue. A question is whether diurnally
driven SHRA/TSRA will develop in proximity to elevated heat
sources and/or in the east/south CWFA where low level mstr is
higher. Mid level LR`s will remain steep and the boundary layer
will be deeply well mixed each day. Today, high resolution models
favor isold high based storms from the Davis Mtns into the GDP
Mtns, of which we favor the Davis Mtns due to mstr considerations.
More of the same Mon/Tue except isold tstms will be possible in
the far ern CWFA. A cold front will near the nrn CWFA by Tue
evening, likely stalling just s of I-20. Wed a warm front maybe
across the nrn CWFA during max heating and if so a few tstms will
be possible, especially across the NE CWFA. Mid level height falls
occur in earnest Thur as a trough moves in from the west. Model
discrepancies continue, with GFS the outlier even wrt the Canadian
model. GFS is persistent that dry air will surge east during the
PM a delays the onset of the tstms until after 00Z/Fri, in part
due to a farther n and e position of surface low. It is likely to
be windy either way, just that will it be a s-se or sw-w wind? It
does make sense that precip will increase between 00Z-06Z Fri as
dryline and cold front collide, probably across the PB? Model
differences continue into Fri, but there is consensus that it will
be cooler. Question is how windy will it be, potentially very
windy? The edge will come off the high temps some Sat/Sun as
ensemble data shows 0 to +1 standard deviation in mid level
heights/low level temps.

FIRE WEATHER...
Lightning occurred yesterday with surface RHs around 20-25 pct in
the Davis/Glass Mtns. More of the same is expected today and Mon.
As such there is the potential for new fire starts especially
with the dry air that will follow each afternoon. Trans Pecos
including SE NM will undergo strong drying trend thru Thur.
Significant Fire Potential wind gradually increase across Trans
Pecos/SE NM/Wrn PB into Wed and moreso Thur when stronger winds
are expected. We continue to watch trends closely into Thur as
high end critical fire wx is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  52  93  53 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  57  93  57 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  58  92  59 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          89  53  91  53 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          85  49  87  49 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  58  91  58 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         87  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           92  55  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
625
FXUS64 KMAF 190804
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
304 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Pathcy fog is again expected this morning, dissipating by mid
morning. Anomalously high mid level heights and the presence of a
low level thermal ridge will ensure the continuation of
unseasonably warm wx thru Tue. A question is whether diurnally
driven SHRA/TSRA will develop in proximity to elevated heat
sources and/or in the east/south CWFA where low level mstr is
higher. Mid level LR`s will remain steep and the boundary layer
will be deeply well mixed each day. Today, high resolution models
favor isold high based storms from the Davis Mtns into the GDP
Mtns, of which we favor the Davis Mtns due to mstr considerations.
More of the same Mon/Tue except isold tstms will be possible in
the far ern CWFA. A cold front will near the nrn CWFA by Tue
evening, likely stalling just s of I-20. Wed a warm front maybe
across the nrn CWFA during max heating and if so a few tstms will
be possible, especially across the NE CWFA. Mid level height
falls occur in earnest Thur as a trough moves in from the west.
Model discrepancies continue, with GFS the outlier even wrt the
Canadian model. GFS is persistent that dry air will surge east
during the PM a delays the onset of the tstms until after 00Z/Fri,
in part due to a farther n and e position of surface low. It is
likely to be windy either way, just that will it be a s-se or sw-w
wind? It does make sense that precip will increase between 00Z-06Z
Fri as dryline and cold front collide, probably across the PB?
Model differences continue into Fri, but there is consensus that
it will be cooler. Question is how windy will it be, potentially
very windy? The edge will come off the high temps some Sat/Sun as
ensemble data shows 0 to +1 standard deviation in mid level
heights/low level temps.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lightning occurred yesterday with surface RHs around 20-25 pct in
the Davis/Glass Mtns. More of the same is expected today and Mon.
As such there is the potential for new fire starts especially
with the dry air that will follow each afternoon. Trans Pecos
including SE NM will undergo strong drying trend thru Thur.
Significant Fire Potential wind gradually increase across Trans
Pecos/SE NM/Wrn PB into Wed and moreso Thur when stronger winds
are expected. We continue to watch trends closely into Thur as
high end critical fire wx is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  52  93  53 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  57  93  57 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  58  92  59 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          89  53  91  53 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          85  49  87  49 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  58  91  58 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         87  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           92  55  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
665
FXUS64 KMAF 190519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main concern this forecast period is the potential for low
ceilings/fog to affect area terminals. Expect most terminals to
see MVFR conditions later tonight, with IFR possible Sunday
morning, especially at INK/HOB. Confidence is lower at
CNM/PEQ/FST, thus have handled with TEMPO MVFR mention. All
terminals are expected to improve to VFR by late morning, with VFR
prevailing thereafter. S/SE winds will remain around 12kt or less
through the period, except at FST where gusts to around 20kt will
continue for the next hour or two before diminishing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows last night`s cold front stalled invof
KMAF, and return flow has pretty much washed it out.  However, this,
and morning stratus, has kept temps in the east from warming as fast
as in the west.  Still, afternoon highs should top out well-abv
normal.  Over in the Davis Mtns, diurnal convection is attempting to
develop, but struggling.  Mesoanalysis shows mucapes increasing
there over the next few hours, so chances there later this afternoon
can`t be ruled out.

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved east over the past 24
hours, and is almost centered over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  This feature is forecast to hang around the central CONUS
thru midweek, w/heights/temps increasing thru Tue/Wed and resulting
in widespread upr 80s/lwr 90s as soon as Monday.  This will yield
critical RH each day, especially out west.  However, winds under the
ridge should remain under criteria.  Models hint at isolated
convection along a weak dryline over ern zones Mon afternoon.

All this begins to change midweek as an upper-lvl trough pushes the
ridge east.  Attm, this scenario is shaping up as a classic dryline
event under SW flow aloft.  This will likely be proceeded by
critical fire wx conditions west of the dryline, and convective
initiation along the dryline Thu afternoon/evening.  The big
variable at the moment is timing, w/the GFS faster than other
models, which lag by around 12 hours.  For now, we`ll keep POPs
tempered a bit, and inserted Thu/Thu night.  The final solution will
likely end up slower than the GFS and faster than the slower models.

Cooler weather follows the trough into the extended, but temps
remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  58  89  58 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       90  50  91  52 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         83  56  84  56 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  56  92  57 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  57  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          88  52  87  52 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          83  47  85  48 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  57  90  58 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         88  57  91  57 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           91  53  93  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
226
FXUS64 KMAF 182359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight.
Expect winds to remain southerly and decrease overnight.
IFR conditions with low stratus and areas of fog are expected
to develop into most TAF sites between 09Z and 12z and clear
to VFR conditions for tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows last night`s cold front stalled invof
KMAF, and return flow has pretty much washed it out.  However, this,
and morning stratus, has kept temps in the east from warming as fast
as in the west.  Still, afternoon highs should top out well-abv
normal.  Over in the Davis Mtns, diurnal convection is attempting to
develop, but struggling.  Mesoanalysis shows mucapes increasing
there over the next few hours, so chances there later this afternoon
can`t be ruled out.

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved east over the past 24
hours, and is almost centered over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  This feature is forecast to hang around the central CONUS
thru midweek, w/heights/temps increasing thru Tue/Wed and resulting
in widespread upr 80s/lwr 90s as soon as Monday.  This will yield
critical RH each day, especially out west.  However, winds under the
ridge should remain under criteria.  Models hint at isolated
convection along a weak dryline over ern zones Mon afternoon.

All this begins to change midweek as an upper-lvl trough pushes the
ridge east.  Attm, this scenario is shaping up as a classic dryline
event under SW flow aloft.  This will likely be proceeded by
critical fire wx conditions west of the dryline, and convective
initiation along the dryline Thu afternoon/evening.  The big
variable at the moment is timing, w/the GFS faster than other
models, which lag by around 12 hours.  For now, we`ll keep POPs
tempered a bit, and inserted Thu/Thu night.  The final solution will
likely end up slower than the GFS and faster than the slower models.

Cooler weather follows the trough into the extended, but temps
remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       50  90  50  91 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         57  83  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  90  56  92 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          53  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          48  83  47  85 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  89  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  88  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           55  91  53  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

34
731
FXUS64 KMAF 181945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows last night`s cold front stalled invof
KMAF, and return flow has pretty much washed it out.  However, this,
and morning stratus, has kept temps in the east from warming as fast
as in the west.  Still, afternoon highs should top out well-abv
normal.  Over in the Davis Mtns, diurnal convection is attempting to
develop, but struggling.  Mesoanalysis shows mucapes increasing
there over the next few hours, so chances there later this afternoon
can`t be ruled out.

WV imagery shows the upper ridge has moved east over the past 24
hours, and is almost centered over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  This feature is forecast to hang around the central CONUS
thru midweek, w/heights/temps increasing thru Tue/Wed and resulting
in widespread upr 80s/lwr 90s as soon as Monday.  This will yield
critical RH each day, especially out west.  However, winds under the
ridge should remain under criteria.  Models hint at isolated
convection along a weak dryline over ern zones Mon afternoon.

All this begins to change midweek as an upper-lvl trough pushes the
ridge east.  Attm, this scenario is shaping up as a classic dryline
event under SW flow aloft.  This will likely be proceeded by
critical fire wx conditions west of the dryline, and convective
initiation along the dryline Thu afternoon/evening.  The big
variable at the moment is timing, w/the GFS faster than other
models, which lag by around 12 hours.  For now, we`ll keep POPs
tempered a bit, and inserted Thu/Thu night.  The final solution will
likely end up slower than the GFS and faster than the slower models.

Cooler weather follows the trough into the extended, but temps
remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       50  90  50  91 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         57  83  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  90  56  92 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          53  88  52  87 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          48  83  47  85 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  89  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  88  57  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           55  91  53  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44
222
FXUS64 KMAF 181729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will transition to the southeast by this evening with
elevated winds for FST, MAF, and INK later this afternoon. Winds
will weaken out of the south overnight with low ceilings and
visibilities developing and moving across the area around 09z
tonight and moving out/dissipating around 16z tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather
across the region, as above normal temperatures look to continue
through the next 7 days. Aside from the potential for diurnally
driven precipitation across higher terrain the next few
afternoons, the forecast remains dry until possibly next Thursday.

A cold front that pushed into the area last evening has made
little southward progression overnight, and is currently draped
across the central Permian Basin westward across Reeves and
Culberson counties. Temperatures early this morning still hanging
in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the area, and given moisture
along the front, areas of fog are expected to develop this
morning, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning,
with highs today expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s
for most of the area, with a few 90s possible through the Rio
Grande Valley. While under the influence of an upper ridge, most
convection is expected to be suppressed, however, there may be
some showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon
across the favored higher elevations of the Davis Mountains. The
aforementioned front will lift north this afternoon, resulting in
a return to southerly flow which will continue through midweek
next week. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s, with a few
middle to upper 40s possible for higher terrain and northern Lea
county. As the ridge maintains its presence, temperatures will
remain well above normal the next several days, with a return to
highs in the 80s and 90s areawide Sunday through Wednesday, and
lows ranging from around 50 to around 60 degrees. Much of the area
is expected to remain dry as the dryline pushes east each
afternoon, and then retreats westward overnight, though given
strong daytime heating, have maintained the slight chance of
afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday across favored
higher terrain to the west, and on Monday across the Chisos
Mountains in the Big Bend Area.

Flow aloft will begin to transition to southwesterly on Wednesday
as a potent trough moving through the Great Basin will push the
ridge axis eastward. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential
for storms to develop along the dryline across eastern portions
of the forecast area Thursday evening ahead of the approaching
trough, though the ECMWF solution is much more bullish. As the
trough skirts north of the region on Friday, windy to very windy
conditions will be possible, along with cooler temperatures a bit
closer to normal. However, have not deviated too much from the
blended solution at this time, given run-to-run inconsistencies
that far out into the extended. Until then, mainly dry, very warm
weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  59  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       84  51  90  54 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         80  58  87  58 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  85  57  90  59 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  57  84  58 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          81  52  86  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          83  45  83  45 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         82  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           85  55  90  56 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
844
FXUS64 KMAF 181126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has moved just s of MAF with light ne winds. Satellite
shows low clouds advancing nw and still expect that low
clouds/fog at HOB/MAF/INK will develop and have continued with
MVFR VSBY and IFR CIGS thru 15Z. There is a chance VSBY will drop
rapidly with light wind as it has the past few mornings. Low
clouds/fog dissipate by 15Z with more possible after 09Z Sun.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather
across the region, as above normal temperatures look to continue
through the next 7 days. Aside from the potential for diurnally
driven precipitation across higher terrain the next few
afternoons, the forecast remains dry until possibly next Thursday.

A cold front that pushed into the area last evening has made
little southward progression overnight, and is currently draped
across the central Permian Basin westward across Reeves and
Culberson counties. Temperatures early this morning still hanging
in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the area, and given moisture
along the front, areas of fog are expected to develop this
morning, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning,
with highs today expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s
for most of the area, with a few 90s possible through the Rio
Grande Valley. While under the influence of an upper ridge, most
convection is expected to be suppressed, however, there may be
some showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon
across the favored higher elevations of the Davis Mountains. The
aforementioned front will lift north this afternoon, resulting in
a return to southerly flow which will continue through midweek
next week. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s, with a few
middle to upper 40s possible for higher terrain and northern Lea
county. As the ridge maintains its presence, temperatures will
remain well above normal the next several days, with a return to
highs in the 80s and 90s areawide Sunday through Wednesday, and
lows ranging from around 50 to around 60 degrees. Much of the area
is expected to remain dry as the dryline pushes east each
afternoon, and then retreats westward overnight, though given
strong daytime heating, have maintained the slight chance of
afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday across favored
higher terrain to the west, and on Monday across the Chisos
Mountains in the Big Bend Area.

Flow aloft will begin to transition to southwesterly on Wednesday
as a potent trough moving through the Great Basin will push the
ridge axis eastward. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential
for storms to develop along the dryline across eastern portions
of the forecast area Thursday evening ahead of the approaching
trough, though the ECMWF solution is much more bullish. As the
trough skirts north of the region on Friday, windy to very windy
conditions will be possible, along with cooler temperatures a bit
closer to normal. However, have not deviated too much from the
blended solution at this time, given run-to-run inconsistencies
that far out into the extended. Until then, mainly dry, very warm
weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  59  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       84  51  90  54 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         80  58  87  58 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  85  57  90  59 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  57  84  58 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          81  52  86  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          83  45  83  45 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         82  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           85  55  90  56 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
259
FXUS64 KMAF 180858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather
across the region, as above normal temperatures look to continue
through the next 7 days. Aside from the potential for diurnally
driven precipitation across higher terrain the next few
afternoons, the forecast remains dry until possibly next Thursday.

A cold front that pushed into the area last evening has made
little southward progression overnight, and is currently draped
across the central Permian Basin westward across Reeves and
Culberson counties. Temperatures early this morning still hanging
in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most of the area, and given moisture
along the front, areas of fog are expected to develop this
morning, mainly across portions of the Permian Basin and
southeastern New Mexico. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning,
with highs today expected to top out in the lower to middle 80s
for most of the area, with a few 90s possible through the Rio
Grande Valley. While under the influence of an upper ridge, most
convection is expected to be suppressed, however, there may be
some showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon
across the favored higher elevations of the Davis Mountains. The
aforementioned front will lift north this afternoon, resulting in
a return to southerly flow which will continue through midweek
next week. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s, with a few
middle to upper 40s possible for higher terrain and northern Lea
county. As the ridge maintains its presence, temperatures will
remain well above normal the next several days, with a return to
highs in the 80s and 90s areawide Sunday through Wednesday, and
lows ranging from around 50 to around 60 degrees. Much of the area
is expected to remain dry as the dryline pushes east each
afternoon, and then retreats westward overnight, though given
strong daytime heating, have maintained the slight chance of
afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday across favored
higher terrain to the west, and on Monday across the Chisos
Mountains in the Big Bend Area.

Flow aloft will begin to transition to southwesterly on Wednesday
as a potent trough moving through the Great Basin will push the
ridge axis eastward. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate the potential
for storms to develop along the dryline across eastern portions
of the forecast area Thursday evening ahead of the approaching
trough, though the ECMWF solution is much more bullish. As the
trough skirts north of the region on Friday, windy to very windy
conditions will be possible, along with cooler temperatures a bit
closer to normal. However, have not deviated too much from the
blended solution at this time, given run-to-run inconsistencies
that far out into the extended. Until then, mainly dry, very warm
weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  59  88  59 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       84  51  90  54 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         80  58  87  58 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  85  57  90  59 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  57  84  58 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          81  52  86  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          83  45  83  45 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         82  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           85  55  90  56 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/84
554
FXUS64 KMAF 180512
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front just n of MAF has mostly stalled, but looks to briefly
turn wind east around 12Z at MAF. Light winds and lack of frontal
push will again favor the possibility of low clouds/fog at
HOB/MAF/INK and have continued with MVFR VSBY and IFR CIGS between
11Z-14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  58  86  58 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       83  52  89  53 /  10   0  20  10
Dryden                         81  58  84  57 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  85  56  90  58 /  10   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 77  56  83  58 /  10   0  30  10
Hobbs                          80  53  85  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          83  47  84  48 /  30  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  58  87  59 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         83  58  87  58 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           85  55  90  55 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$