Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

280
FXUS64 KMAF 261043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front moving
thru the region will veer winds to the NW today, brigning another
gusty afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow
should resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
650
FXUS64 KMAF 260858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29
150
FXUS64 KMAF 260511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front currently
moving thru the Texas Panhandle will reach the NE terminals around
14Z, and others shortly thereafter, brigning another gusty
afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow should
resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Red Flag warning has expired.

FIRE WEATHER...
Update to remove the Red Flag highlights. More critical fire wx is
possible Wed across parts of the Trans Pecos and across most areas
on Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  52  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  52  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  57  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  56  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  47  85  54 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          75  43  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  54  90  60 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  54  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           76  51  93  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
919
FXUS64 KMAF 260333 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Red Flag warning has expired.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Update to remove the Red Flag highlights. More critical fire wx is
possible Wed across parts of the Trans Pecos and across most areas
on Thur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
604
FXUS64 KMAF 260142
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

49/27
340
FXUS64 KMAF 252316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
937
FXUS64 KMAF 251907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  70  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  76  52  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         67  84  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  77  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  71  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          51  70  47  85 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          52  75  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  74  54  90 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         57  74  54  88 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           56  76  51  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

67/80
808
FXUS64 KMAF 251743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to expand the Wind Advisory farther east, and raise high
temperatures a couple of degrees.  The latest Aviation Discussion
is included below also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Despite high clouds streaming over the region, westerly winds have
increased early this afternoon over the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory areas.  Think we will see wind speeds increase further
though as more heating occurs and mixes a deeper layer of the
atmosphere, and more subsidence occurs from west to east through
late this afternoon.  Will expand the Wind Advisory into the central
Permian Basin to include locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Midland to Monahans line since it appears speeds will rise to 30 mph
sustained, with gusts of 45-50 mph possible too.  The westerly
downslope flow is warming temperatures near forecast highs for this
afternoon, so will raise high temperatures over the Permian basin,
south through the Lower Trans Pecos.  It does not appear we will
threaten any record high temperatures as those are solidly in the
100s for April 25th. An update will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from the potential for reduced visibility in blowing dust at
KCNM, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight at all
area terminals.  West winds of 20-35kt sustained, and gusts of 35-
50kt will occur this afternoon, but diminish this evening and become
northwesterly ahead of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         98  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Dawson-Ector-
     Martin-Midland-Ward.

&&

$$
124
FXUS64 KMAF 251103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Very windy conditions expected to commence later this morning and
last through the afternoon. Winds could gust over 40 kts at
times, especially at the western terminals. A cold front will turn
winds to the northwest after sunset and expect it to remain gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Little changes to the current forecast, and another day of wind and
fire visit West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  WV imagery shows an
upper trough over WY, w/a secondary trough over SE OR that is
forecast to phase w/the first and move thru the Texas Panhandle by
12Z Wed.  This will result in increasing westerlies across much of
the area today and tonight.  The NAM develops a fairly strong mtn
wave signature over the Guadalupes thru around 03Z Wed, and H7
height gradients tighten up to 70m/200nm.  Forecast NAM soundings
show mixing over the Guadalupes to 650mb, where 50kt westerlies are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 625mb w/55kt westerlies.  As
usual, the wild card will be sky cover, as models take a 300-500mb
slug of moisture over the area today.  However, confidence is high
enough to issue high wind warnings for areas that were in a watch
yesterday, as well as advisories further east out onto the plains.
W/temps well-above normal, RH will be in the teens or lower,
increasing the fire wx threat for much of the area.  See Fire Wx
Discussion below for more detail.

Unfortunately, a cold front will accompany the upper trough, and
move thru Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 14Z.  This will take
temps Wed afternoon down to a couple of cats below normal.  However,
westerly sfc flow resumes Thursday under a broad trough covering
most of the CONUS, and downslope warming should allow for a rebound
to above-normal temps.  This could be another windy day out west,
but we`ll forego a watch attm to keep things simple, and just
mention it in the HWO.

As the weekend approaches, a tertiary trough will approach, and move
thru the region by 00Z Sun.  This suggests more winds beyond Thu,
and will result in a chance of convection beginning Friday night and
lasting thru Saturday night. Temps will drop below normal Sat/Sun,
and rebound to above-normal Mon/Tue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to extreme fire danger
and critical fire weather conditions across much of the area today.
Green-up from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend will temper
the threat there, but areas to the west still have mostly cured
vegetation. Locations from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains into SE
NM also will have the strongest winds so have upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning here. RH`s will drop mostly into the single digits this
afternoon while winds increase from the west at 25 to 35 mph with
gusts over 40 mph.

A cold front will bring some relief Wednesday, but critical fire
weather conditions are still possible across the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. Widespread critical fire conditions look to return
Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another strong storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       88  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
521
FXUS64 KMAF 251002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Little changes to the current forecast, and another day of wind and
fire visit West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  WV imagery shows an
upper trough over WY, w/a secondary trough over SE OR that is
forecast to phase w/the first and move thru the Texas Panhandle by
12Z Wed.  This will result in increasing westerlies across much of
the area today and tonight.  The NAM develops a fairly strong mtn
wave signature over the Guadalupes thru around 03Z Wed, and H7
height gradients tighten up to 70m/200nm.  Forecast NAM soundings
show mixing over the Guadalupes to 650mb, where 50kt westerlies are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 625mb w/55kt westerlies.  As
usual, the wild card will be sky cover, as models take a 300-500mb
slug of moisture over the area today.  However, confidence is high
enough to issue high wind warnings for areas that were in a watch
yesterday, as well as advisories further east out onto the plains.
W/temps well-above normal, RH will be in the teens or lower,
increasing the fire wx threat for much of the area.  See Fire Wx
Discussion below for more detail.

Unfortunately, a cold front will accompany the upper trough, and
move thru Wednesday, w/fropa at KMAF around 14Z.  This will take
temps Wed afternoon down to a couple of cats below normal.  However,
westerly sfc flow resumes Thursday under a broad trough covering
most of the CONUS, and downslope warming should allow for a rebound
to above-normal temps.  This could be another windy day out west,
but we`ll forego a watch attm to keep things simple, and just
mention it in the HWO.

As the weekend approaches, a tertiary trough will approach, and move
thru the region by 00Z Sun.  This suggests more winds beyond Thu,
and will result in a chance of convection beginning Friday night and
lasting thru Saturday night. Temps will drop below normal Sat/Sun,
and rebound to above-normal Mon/Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to extreme fire danger
and critical fire weather conditions across much of the area today.
Green-up from the Permian Basin south to the Big Bend will temper
the threat there, but areas to the west still have mostly cured
vegetation. Locations from the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains into SE
NM also will have the strongest winds so have upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning here. RH`s will drop mostly into the single digits this
afternoon while winds increase from the west at 25 to 35 mph with
gusts over 40 mph.

A cold front will bring some relief Wednesday, but critical fire
weather conditions are still possible across the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau. Widespread critical fire conditions look to return
Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another strong storm system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       88  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  66  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  48  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  58  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  57  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           92  56  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29/44
898
FXUS64 KMAF 250501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday with westerly winds
becoming very gusty by afternoon. Expect most terminals to gust
near or over 40 kts. Winds will diminish during the evening ahead
of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  61  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       91  57  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         97  67  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  63  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  52  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  72  48 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          89  54  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  75  53 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  60  76  54 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           95  60  78  53 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning through
     this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/29
012
FXUS64 KMAF 242353
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
653 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds from the west. Gusty W to SW wind
may drop a little after sunset but come back stronger tomorrow out
of the W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern will be conducive for windy and hot conditions
this week, with a couple of cold fronts in between to provide brief
temperature relief.  Rain chances will be minimal, with perhaps the
best shot coming Saturday and Saturday night as a secondary upper
trough is progged to be a bit deeper than the initial one Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect in the Guadalupe Mountains
from this afternoon until Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds
expected Tuesday afternoon as the base of a shortwave trough begins
to move over the region.  High clouds will spread eastward ahead of
the upper trough, but do not think they will be thick enough to
curtail deep mixing of 30-50kt westerly winds to the surface.  These
stronger winds will spread southward to the Davis Mountains, which
may need to be added to the High Wind Warning for locations above
6000 feet Tuesday afternoon.  For now, will issue a High Wind Watch
for the Davis Mountains, Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico, and
the Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where most progs are indicating the
best mid level winds available to mix down, and where subsidence
will be the strongest Tuesday afternoon.  Westerly surface winds of
30-35 mph sustained, and gusts to 50-55 mph, could affect the rest
of the southeastern New Mexico Plains, Marfa Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention the
potential for these Advisory level winds in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but allow later shifts to hone in on which areas will be in
a High Wind Warning, and which will be in a Wind Advisory.

A cold front will drop south into the forecast area Wednesday with
more Advisory level winds possible ahead of the front over the
Stockton Plateau, Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  Cooler
temperatures Wednesday will be brief since westerly flow aloft will
prevail again Thursday as the next ua trough begins to deepen over
the western CONUS.  A low level thermal ridge will rapidly expand
over the region Thursday afternoon, with more wind and fire weather
concerns both Thursday and Friday, especially over the SE NM Plains
and Guadalupe Mountains.  Saturday may not be too different, but by
Saturday night the combination of a deeper ua trough, and rapidly
increasing low level moisture, may provide the only decent shot of
rain for the next 7 days.  Cooler temperatures will follow Sunday,
but the progressive upper pattern promises a quick warmup next
Monday/Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon
with relative humidity of 15 percent or less along and west of a
line around Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine. Winds will be 20 mph
or greater across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, Van
Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for the southeast New Mexico
plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn area. Other places
surrounding this area may experience fire weather criteria but green-
up is sufficient to not issue any warnings at this time.

Fire weather conditions will be even stronger on Tuesday with low
relative humidities spreading across the whole area and winds of at
least 20 mph affecting all but the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. There is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn
area for Tuesday. The Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau may also
need to be included depending on green-up in these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  94  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       64  91  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  97  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  88  53  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          50  89  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         64  94  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           63  95  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
386
FXUS64 KMAF 241904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern will be conducive for windy and hot conditions
this week, with a couple of cold fronts in between to provide brief
temperature relief.  Rain chances will be minimal, with perhaps the
best shot coming Saturday and Saturday night as a secondary upper
trough is progged to be a bit deeper than the initial one Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect in the Guadalupe Mountains
from this afternoon until Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds
expected Tuesday afternoon as the base of a shortwave trough begins
to move over the region.  High clouds will spread eastward ahead of
the upper trough, but do not think they will be thick enough to
curtail deep mixing of 30-50kt westerly winds to the surface.  These
stronger winds will spread southward to the Davis Mountains, which
may need to be added to the High Wind Warning for locations above
6000 feet Tuesday afternoon.  For now, will issue a High Wind Watch
for the Davis Mountains, Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico, and
the Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where most progs are indicating the
best mid level winds available to mix down, and where subsidence
will be the strongest Tuesday afternoon.  Westerly surface winds of
30-35 mph sustained, and gusts to 50-55 mph, could affect the rest
of the southeastern New Mexico Plains, Marfa Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention the
potential for these Advisory level winds in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but allow later shifts to hone in on which areas will be in
a High Wind Warning, and which will be in a Wind Advisory.

A cold front will drop south into the forecast area Wednesday with
more Advisory level winds possible ahead of the front over the
Stockton Plateau, Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  Cooler
temperatures Wednesday will be brief since westerly flow aloft will
prevail again Thursday as the next ua trough begins to deepen over
the western CONUS.  A low level thermal ridge will rapidly expand
over the region Thursday afternoon, with more wind and fire weather
concerns both Thursday and Friday, especially over the SE NM Plains
and Guadalupe Mountains.  Saturday may not be too different, but by
Saturday night the combination of a deeper ua trough, and rapidly
increasing low level moisture, may provide the only decent shot of
rain for the next 7 days.  Cooler temperatures will follow Sunday,
but the progressive upper pattern promises a quick warmup next
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon
with relative humidity of 15 percent or less along and west of a
line around Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine. Winds will be 20 mph
or greater across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, Van
Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for the southeast New Mexico
plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn area. Other places
surrounding this area may experience fire weather criteria but green-
up is sufficient to not issue any warnings at this time.

Fire weather conditions will be even stronger on Tuesday with low
relative humidities spreading across the whole area and winds of at
least 20 mph affecting all but the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. There is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn
area for Tuesday. The Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau may also
need to be included depending on green-up in these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  94  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       64  91  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  97  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  88  53  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          50  89  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         64  94  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           63  95  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

80/99
050
FXUS64 KMAF 241718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated and gusty out of the southwest to west this
afternoon. Winds will decrease a little this evening and briefly become
more southerly early in the evening before switching back to the
west southwest. Winds will pick up in intensity out of the west
around 15z Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
016
FXUS64 KMAF 241108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southeast winds this morning will veer to the southwest by 18Z and
gust to 20-30kt, except for CNM where gusts up to 35kt are
possible. Gusty winds are expected to continue thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
149
FXUS64 KMAF 240748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  62  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  60  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  94  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  60  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  49  88  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
104
FXUS64 KMAF 240518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southerly
to southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the southwest at all
terminals by Monday afternoon and increase, with gusts to 20-30kt
expected areawide. Higher gusts will be possible at CNM Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It has been a beautiful spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the Central Rockies. A High Wind Watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide us with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.

A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into the Four Corners Region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum RH values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low RH values across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  89  59 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  95  62 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  47  84  47 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  54  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  96  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
711
FXUS64 KMAF 232340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Gusty S wind should die off around sunset
and pick up again Monday afternoon out of the S to SW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It has been a beautiful spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the Central Rockies. A High Wind Watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide us with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.

A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into the Four Corners Region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum RH values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low RH values across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  93  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  89  59  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  56  95  62  96 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  80  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  84  47  86 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  96  60  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
185
FXUS64 KMAF 231934
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It has been a beautiful spring day with clear skies, light winds,
and highs slightly below normal. That will come to an end tomorrow
as increasing zonal flow sends temps back above normal, reaching
the 90s in many locations. Winds in the Guadalupe Mountains will
approach High Wind Warning criteria Monday but the stronger winds
will not arrive until Tuesday as a trough moves out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the Central Rockies. A High Wind Watch may be
needed for the Guadalupe Mountains for Tuesday in the next 24
hours. The trough will be too far north to provide us with rain
chances so unfortunately we will only see hot and windy conditions
ahead of the trough followed with a cold front on Wednesday
dropping temperatures back down to near normal.


A transition away from zonal flow will occur at the of the week as
a strong upper low digs into the Four Corners Region early
Saturday. This low will be farther south than the one expected in
the next 48 hours so we may see some precipitation in the area
from this system. Current models are showing the bulk of the
rainfall to our north but this could certainly change over the
next several days and bears watching.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above average temperatures will combine with windy and dry
conditions beginning Monday heightening fire weather concerns.
Minimum relative humidities of 15 percent or less will extend as far
east as the central Permian Basin on Monday with many places
experiencing minimum RH values in the single digits. Winds of 20 mph
or greater will likely be along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos on
Monday. Due to these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
plains for Monday. Will not issue a watch for other areas that may
reach the wind and humidity criteria due to greenup from recent
rains. Fire weather concerns will be even greater on Tuesday due to
winds increasing and low RH values across the whole area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  93  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  89  59  99 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  56  95  62  96 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  80  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  84  47  86 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  96  60  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/10
305
FXUS64 KMAF 231711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
somewhat elevated this afternoon out of the southeast to south and
will become southwesterly by Monday afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another cool day as this morning`s surface ridging moves e this
PM. 85h temps in the mid teens C favors highs mostly in the 70-75
degree range, per a well mixed boundary layer. Increased wly mid
level flow Mon-Tue will amplify the low level thermal ridge
sending highs temps soaring. On Mon the warmest conditions (M90s)
will be across the Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and transitioning to
the PB and most all of the Trans Pecos Tue(M90s). Said increased
wly flow will also result in windy to very windy conditions across
most of the plains Mon-Tue, SW 20-30 mph and W 25-35 mph,
respectively. In the mtns winds will be much stronger. Wind
highlights are likely for Tue. By Wed a weak cold front will
knock high temps back into the 80-85 degree range, except warmer
along Rio Grande. On Thur and into Fri we will head right back
into the well above normal temps/windy regime with the presence of
the usual culprits(thermal ridge and downslope winds). An upper
low is likely to be to the N on Sat and high temps will fall back
into the 80s. There is very little chance for low level moisture
to hold a wwd position in this pattern.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns are on the increase Mon/Tue across SE NM/GDP
Mtns/Van Horn area. Reports from these areas indicate that other
than some roadside green-up that there is enough cured grass to
carry fire. Yesterday`s cold front and assocd higher RHs have
dropped the ERCs, but a strong drying trend going into Tue suggest
ERCs will have a chance to at least approach the 90th percentile
by Tue there? Critical fire wx conditions are favored across Eddy
Co and GDP Mtns Mon, expanding to all of SE NM/GDP Mtns/Van Horn
areas Tue. RF wx is also likely across the PB however green-up
does preclude greater concerns. We strongly considered issuing a
long lead watch for the GDP Mtns/SE NM for Mon/Tue, but for now we
will reflect increasing concerns in products. With extended period
dry conditions and above normal temps we expect that current
green-up across PB and parts of the Trans Pecos will come to an
end or slowed greatly by late week?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
361
FXUS64 KMAF 231124
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light east winds
this morning will veer to the southeast at all terminals by this
afternoon, with speeds generally expected to remain around 12kt or
less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another cool day as this morning`s surface ridging moves e this
PM. 85h temps in the mid teens C favors highs mostly in the 70-75
degree range, per a well mixed boundary layer. Increased wly mid
level flow Mon-Tue will amplify the low level thermal ridge
sending highs temps soaring. On Mon the warmest conditions (M90s)
will be across the Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and transitioning to
the PB and most all of the Trans Pecos Tue(M90s). Said increased
wly flow will also result in windy to very windy conditions across
most of the plains Mon-Tue, SW 20-30 mph and W 25-35 mph,
respectively. In the mtns winds will be much stronger. Wind
highlights are likely for Tue. By Wed a weak cold front will
knock high temps back into the 80-85 degree range, except warmer
along Rio Grande. On Thur and into Fri we will head right back
into the well above normal temps/windy regime with the presence of
the usual culprits(thermal ridge and downslope winds). An upper
low is likely to be to the N on Sat and high temps will fall back
into the 80s. There is very little chance for low level moisture
to hold a wwd position in this pattern.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns are on the increase Mon/Tue across SE NM/GDP
Mtns/Van Horn area. Reports from these areas indicate that other
than some roadside green-up that there is enough cured grass to
carry fire. Yesterday`s cold front and assocd higher RHs have
dropped the ERCs, but a strong drying trend going into Tue suggest
ERCs will have a chance to at least approach the 90th percentile
by Tue there? Critical fire wx conditions are favored across Eddy
Co and GDP Mtns Mon, expanding to all of SE NM/GDP Mtns/Van Horn
areas Tue. RF wx is also likely across the PB however green-up
does preclude greater concerns. We strongly considered issuing a
long lead watch for the GDP Mtns/SE NM for Mon/Tue, but for now we
will reflect increasing concerns in products. With extended period
dry conditions and above normal temps we expect that current
green-up across PB and parts of the Trans Pecos will come to an
end or slowed greatly by late week?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
256
FXUS64 KMAF 230745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another cool day as this morning`s surface ridging moves e this
PM. 85h temps in the mid teens C favors highs mostly in the 70-75
degree range, per a well mixed boundary layer. Increased wly mid
level flow Mon-Tue will amplify the low level thermal ridge
sending highs temps soaring. On Mon the warmest conditions (M90s)
will be across the Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and transitioning to
the PB and most all of the Trans Pecos Tue(M90s). Said increased
wly flow will also result in windy to very windy conditions across
most of the plains Mon-Tue, SW 20-30 mph and W 25-35 mph,
respectively. In the mtns winds will be much stronger. Wind
highlights are likely for Tue. By Wed a weak cold front will
knock high temps back into the 80-85 degree range, except warmer
along Rio Grande. On Thur and into Fri we will head right back
into the well above normal temps/windy regime with the presence of
the usual culprits(thermal ridge and downslope winds). An upper
low is likely to be to the N on Sat and high temps will fall back
into the 80s. There is very little chance for low level moisture
to hold a wwd position in this pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns are on the increase Mon/Tue across SE NM/GDP
Mtns/Van Horn area. Reports from these areas indicate that other
than some roadside green-up that there is enough cured grass to
carry fire. Yesterday`s cold front and assocd higher RHs have
dropped the ERCs, but a strong drying trend going into Tue suggest
ERCs will have a chance to at least approach the 90th percentile
by Tue there? Critical fire wx conditions are favored across Eddy
Co and GDP Mtns Mon, expanding to all of SE NM/GDP Mtns/Van Horn
areas Tue. RF wx is also likely across the PB however green-up
does preclude greater concerns. We strongly considered issuing a
long lead watch for the GDP Mtns/SE NM for Mon/Tue, but for now we
will reflect increasing concerns in products. With extended period
dry conditions and above normal temps we expect that current
green-up across PB and parts of the Trans Pecos will come to an
end or slowed greatly by late week?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
286
FXUS64 KMAF 230518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the forecast period.
Light easterly winds tonight will veer to the southeast after 12Z,
with speeds expected to remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the Central Plains will be swinging east as upper
ridge builds in from the west.  The next upper trough will move
ashore the CA coast Sunday and weaken as it moves east but a
secondary trough will move in behind it and cross the plains
Wednesday.  Late next week a deep trough digs across the 4 Corners
region and moves across the area Saturday and early Sunday.

Have post frontal conditions today... much cooler temperatures than
experienced the previous week.  As of midday low clouds covered most
of the area but were beginning to break up.  As the surface ridge
slides east and a new leeside trough develops Sunday the wind will
slowly to come back around to the south.  Temperatures will be mild
again Sunday but begin to increase.  By Tuesday highs in the 90s
will be widespread with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing
through Friday.  The next front Saturday knocks readings back to
near normal.

The forecast will continue to be dry for the coming week.  However
long range models do skirt the area with some light precip next
weekend with the approach of the strong upper trough... will have to
monitor its development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       75  49  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  55  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  55  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  44  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  52  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  51  94  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
925
FXUS64 KMAF 230001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites.
Winds will remain out of the northeast overnight, veering to the southeast
by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the Central Plains will be swinging east as upper
ridge builds in from the west.  The next upper trough will move
ashore the CA coast Sunday and weaken as it moves east but a
secondary trough will move in behind it and cross the plains
Wednesday.  Late next week a deep trough digs across the 4 Corners
region and moves across the area Saturday and early Sunday.

Have post frontal conditions today... much cooler temperatures than
experienced the previous week.  As of midday low clouds covered most
of the area but were beginning to break up.  As the surface ridge
slides east and a new leeside trough develops Sunday the wind will
slowly to come back around to the south.  Temperatures will be mild
again Sunday but begin to increase.  By Tuesday highs in the 90s
will be widespread with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing
through Friday.  The next front Saturday knocks readings back to
near normal.

The forecast will continue to be dry for the coming week.  However
long range models do skirt the area with some light precip next
weekend with the approach of the strong upper trough... will have to
monitor its development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  72  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  75  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  78  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  75  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  70  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  72  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  73  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  73  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  72  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           46  75  51  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24
715
FXUS64 KMAF 221913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the Central Plains will be swinging east as upper
ridge builds in from the west.  The next upper trough will move
ashore the CA coast Sunday and weaken as it moves east but a
secondary trough will move in behind it and cross the plains
Wednesday.  Late next week a deep trough digs across the 4 Corners
region and moves across the area Saturday and early Sunday.

Have post frontal conditions today... much cooler temperatures than
experienced the previous week.  As of midday low clouds covered most
of the area but were beginning to break up.  As the surface ridge
slides east and a new leeside trough develops Sunday the wind will
slowly to come back around to the south.  Temperatures will be mild
again Sunday but begin to increase.  By Tuesday highs in the 90s
will be widespread with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing
through Friday.  The next front Saturday knocks readings back to
near normal.

The forecast will continue to be dry for the coming week.  However
long range models do skirt the area with some light precip next
weekend with the approach of the strong upper trough... will have to
monitor its development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  72  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  75  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  78  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  75  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  70  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          42  72  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  73  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  73  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  72  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           46  75  51  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/72
112
FXUS64 KMAF 221716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings will gradually improve through the afternoon with VFR
conditions expected. Winds will be elevated out of the northeast
this afternoon and will weaken and become variable into the
overnight period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1011 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to clear high wind warning from the Guadalupes.

DISCUSSION...

The surface cold front has passed through the southern reaches of
the CWA and is now in northern Mexico. Surface pressure gradients
are starting to relax as the isallobaric winds follow the front.
We`ve updated to let the high wind warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains expire.  No other changes to the previous forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake
of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be
short-lived. Temperatures are expected to rebound well above
normal into the 80s and 90s by Monday, where they will remain
through next week.

A strong cold front continues to push south early this morning,
currently located south of a line from roughly Sonora to Fort
Stockton to Van Horn at 400 am CDT. Behind the front, winds have
shifted to the northeast, with breezy conditions expected to
continue through the morning before diminishing this afternoon.
Strong gap winds have also developed through Guadalupe Pass, with
gusts up to 60 mph possible through late this morning. Thus, the
High Wind Warning remains in effect for that area until 10am MDT.
Models continue to generate some light QPF across the far Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Davis Mountains this morning,
with the best chance in areas favored for upslope flow where
isolated showers and perhaps some light drizzle will be possible.
By this afternoon, widespread low clouds are expected to clear out
from west to east, with temperatures today much cooler than
yesterday, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will pave the way for some
very chilly low temperatures for early Sunday morning, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with 50s through the Rio Grande Valley,
and even some upper 30s possible across northern Lea county and
the Marfa Plateau. No subfreezing temperatures are expected, and
after a record warm February and March, the date of Midland`s last
freeze was February 3rd. Barring any unusual events in May, this
would be our earliest last freeze on record, breaking the previous
record of February 26th (2004) by over three weeks.

Another unseasonably cool day is expected Sunday, as light
easterly to southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures
from warming too much across the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will
be in the 70s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where 80s will be
possible. Northwesterly flow aloft will transition to more zonal
flow by Monday, and given a return to southerly flow at the
surface, a rapid warmup back into the 80s and 90s is expected,
with warmest temperatures expected through the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys and into southeastern New Mexico. Breezy conditions
as well as a thermal ridge anchored over eastern New Mexico
Monday could yield some fire weather concerns for the Southeast
New Mexico Plains Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through next week, with daily high
temperatures well into the 80s and 90s closer to normal for early
June rather than late April. Have maintained a dry forecast
through the extended, with little to no chance of precipitation
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  51  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  46  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  38  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
077
FXUS64 KMAF 221511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1011 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to clear high wind warning from the Guadalupes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The surface cold front has passed through the southern reaches of
the CWA and is now in northern Mexico. Surface pressure gradients
are starting to relax as the isallobaric winds follow the front.
We`ve updated to let the high wind warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains expire.  No other changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Front is already into the Big Bend area with low clouds covering
much of the area, mostly MVFR CIGS. Wind have trended down
although still windy. Around 18Z winds will decrease closer to
10-15kts and CIGS will lift, thereafter VFR into Sunday AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake
of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be
short-lived. Temperatures are expected to rebound well above
normal into the 80s and 90s by Monday, where they will remain
through next week.

A strong cold front continues to push south early this morning,
currently located south of a line from roughly Sonora to Fort
Stockton to Van Horn at 400 am CDT. Behind the front, winds have
shifted to the northeast, with breezy conditions expected to
continue through the morning before diminishing this afternoon.
Strong gap winds have also developed through Guadalupe Pass, with
gusts up to 60 mph possible through late this morning. Thus, the
High Wind Warning remains in effect for that area until 10am MDT.
Models continue to generate some light QPF across the far Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Davis Mountains this morning,
with the best chance in areas favored for upslope flow where
isolated showers and perhaps some light drizzle will be possible.
By this afternoon, widespread low clouds are expected to clear out
from west to east, with temperatures today much cooler than
yesterday, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will pave the way for some
very chilly low temperatures for early Sunday morning, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with 50s through the Rio Grande Valley,
and even some upper 30s possible across northern Lea county and
the Marfa Plateau. No subfreezing temperatures are expected, and
after a record warm February and March, the date of Midland`s last
freeze was February 3rd. Barring any unusual events in May, this
would be our earliest last freeze on record, breaking the previous
record of February 26th (2004) by over three weeks.

Another unseasonably cool day is expected Sunday, as light
easterly to southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures
from warming too much across the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will
be in the 70s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where 80s will be
possible. Northwesterly flow aloft will transition to more zonal
flow by Monday, and given a return to southerly flow at the
surface, a rapid warmup back into the 80s and 90s is expected,
with warmest temperatures expected through the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys and into southeastern New Mexico. Breezy conditions
as well as a thermal ridge anchored over eastern New Mexico
Monday could yield some fire weather concerns for the Southeast
New Mexico Plains Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through next week, with daily high
temperatures well into the 80s and 90s closer to normal for early
June rather than late April. Have maintained a dry forecast
through the extended, with little to no chance of precipitation
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  51  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  46  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  38  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

80/70
846
FXUS64 KMAF 221125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Front is already into the Big Bend area with low clouds covering
much of the area, mostly MVFR CIGS. Wind have trended down
although still windy. Around 18Z winds will decrease closer to
10-15kts and CIGS will lift, thereafter VFR into Sunday AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake
of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be
short-lived. Temperatures are expected to rebound well above
normal into the 80s and 90s by Monday, where they will remain
through next week.

A strong cold front continues to push south early this morning,
currently located south of a line from roughly Sonora to Fort
Stockton to Van Horn at 400 am CDT. Behind the front, winds have
shifted to the northeast, with breezy conditions expected to
continue through the morning before diminishing this afternoon.
Strong gap winds have also developed through Guadalupe Pass, with
gusts up to 60 mph possible through late this morning. Thus, the
High Wind Warning remains in effect for that area until 10am MDT.
Models continue to generate some light QPF across the far Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Davis Mountains this morning,
with the best chance in areas favored for upslope flow where
isolated showers and perhaps some light drizzle will be possible.
By this afternoon, widespread low clouds are expected to clear out
from west to east, with temperatures today much cooler than
yesterday, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will pave the way for some
very chilly low temperatures for early Sunday morning, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with 50s through the Rio Grande Valley,
and even some upper 30s possible across northern Lea county and
the Marfa Plateau. No subfreezing temperatures are expected, and
after a record warm February and March, the date of Midland`s last
freeze was February 3rd. Barring any unusual events in May, this
would be our earliest last freeze on record, breaking the previous
record of February 26th (2004) by over three weeks.

Another unseasonably cool day is expected Sunday, as light
easterly to southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures
from warming too much across the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will
be in the 70s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where 80s will be
possible. Northwesterly flow aloft will transition to more zonal
flow by Monday, and given a return to southerly flow at the
surface, a rapid warmup back into the 80s and 90s is expected,
with warmest temperatures expected through the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys and into southeastern New Mexico. Breezy conditions
as well as a thermal ridge anchored over eastern New Mexico
Monday could yield some fire weather concerns for the Southeast
New Mexico Plains Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through next week, with daily high
temperatures well into the 80s and 90s closer to normal for early
June rather than late April. Have maintained a dry forecast
through the extended, with little to no chance of precipitation
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  51  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  46  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  38  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
148
FXUS64 KMAF 220902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake
of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be
short-lived. Temperatures are expected to rebound well above
normal into the 80s and 90s by Monday, where they will remain
through next week.

A strong cold front continues to push south early this morning,
currently located south of a line from roughly Sonora to Fort
Stockton to Van Horn at 400 am CDT. Behind the front, winds have
shifted to the northeast, with breezy conditions expected to
continue through the morning before diminishing this afternoon.
Strong gap winds have also developed through Guadalupe Pass, with
gusts up to 60 mph possible through late this morning. Thus, the
High Wind Warning remains in effect for that area until 10am MDT.
Models continue to generate some light QPF across the far Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Davis Mountains this morning,
with the best chance in areas favored for upslope flow where
isolated showers and perhaps some light drizzle will be possible.
By this afternoon, widespread low clouds are expected to clear out
from west to east, with temperatures today much cooler than
yesterday, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will pave the way for some
very chilly low temperatures for early Sunday morning, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with 50s through the Rio Grande Valley,
and even some upper 30s possible across northern Lea county and
the Marfa Plateau. No subfreezing temperatures are expected, and
after a record warm February and March, the date of Midland`s last
freeze was February 3rd. Barring any unusual events in May, this
would be our earliest last freeze on record, breaking the previous
record of February 26th (2004) by over three weeks.

Another unseasonably cool day is expected Sunday, as light
easterly to southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures
from warming too much across the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will
be in the 70s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where 80s will be
possible. Northeasterly flow aloft will transition to more zonal
flow by Monday, and given a return to southerly flow at the
surface, a rapid warmup back into the 80s and 90s is expected,
with warmest temperatures expected through the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys and into southeastern New Mexico. Breezy conditions
as well as a thermal ridge anchored over eastern New Mexico
Monday could yield some fire weather concerns for the Southeast
New Mexico Plains Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through next week, with daily high
temperatures well into the 80s and 90s closer to normal for early
June rather than late April. Have maintained a dry forecast
through the extended, with little to no chance of precipitation
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  51  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  46  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  38  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
915
FXUS64 KMAF 220515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
5mb/3hr isallobaric high is pushing front rapidly thru the area
with sustained 20-25G33033kt winds. MVFR CIGS are following too.
NAM12 soundings hold onto low clouds until around 18Z and this is
what TAFs will reflect.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  45  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  52  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  47  74  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  44  68  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  41  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  39  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  45  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         67  45  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  74  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
639
FXUS64 KMAF 212348
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
648 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies and light winds will continue through sunset. A cold
front will enter the region after 03Z. Winds will shift around to
the NNE and become gusty overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected
behind the front with brief IFR conditions possible. After sunrise,
winds should slacken and ceilings will gradually return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for first period wind.

DISCUSSION...
Wind speeds looking a little higher tonight with fropa. Have
updated forecast to increase wind speeds tonight to the 20 to 30
mph range generally north of the Pecos River.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough coming out of the Rockies will swing across the
Southern Plains later today with the secondary portion of the
trough swinging down on Saturday. After the trough moves off a
high pressure ridge builds in from the west. The next upper
trough moves ashore early Sunday with a stronger trough expected
Wednesday.

The trough will push a strong cold front southward that will blow
into the area this evening and pass through the region overnight
and early Saturday morning. The front will be accompanied by a
gusty N/NE wind. This will bring a sudden change to the recent
unseasonably warm wx. Highs Saturday will only be in the 60s and
70s... with readings Sunday in the 70s areawide but the cool down
will be short lived.  By Sunday afternoon the wind will start to
come back around to the south as a new leeside trough develops.
Temperatures climb back into the 90s early next week under upper
ridge. Have upgraded High Wind Watch tonight for GDP to a warning
as high wind conditions expected as the cold front is channeled
through the pass.

Low clouds expected to move down behind the front. Some models do
try to develop some light precip tonight along the front as it
crosses the Pecos and hits the higher elevations. Will through in
mention of isolated showers tonight but not expecting much. Rest
of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  66  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  69  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  73  52  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  68  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  64  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  65  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  69  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  67  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  67  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           52  69  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

24
179
FXUS64 KMAF 212145
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for first period wind.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wind speeds looking a little higher tonight with fropa. Have
updated forecast to increase wind speeds tonight to the 20 to 30
mph range generally north of the Pecos River.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough coming out of the Rockies will swing across the
Southern Plains later today with the secondary portion of the
trough swinging down on Saturday. After the trough moves off a
high pressure ridge builds in from the west. The next upper
trough moves ashore early Sunday with a stronger trough expected
Wednesday.

The trough will push a strong cold front southward that will blow
into the area this evening and pass through the region overnight
and early Saturday morning. The front will be accompanied by a
gusty N/NE wind. This will bring a sudden change to the recent
unseasonably warm wx. Highs Saturday will only be in the 60s and
70s... with readings Sunday in the 70s areawide but the cool down
will be short lived.  By Sunday afternoon the wind will start to
come back around to the south as a new leeside trough develops.
Temperatures climb back into the 90s early next week under upper
ridge. Have upgraded High Wind Watch tonight for GDP to a warning
as high wind conditions expected as the cold front is channeled
through the pass.

Low clouds expected to move down behind the front. Some models do
try to develop some light precip tonight along the front as it
crosses the Pecos and hits the higher elevations. Will through in
mention of isolated showers tonight but not expecting much. Rest
of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  66  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  69  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  73  52  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  68  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  64  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  65  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  69  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  67  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  67  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           52  69  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
754
FXUS64 KMAF 211852
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough coming out of the Rockies will swing across the
Southern Plains later today with the secondary portion of the
trough swinging down on Saturday. After the trough moves off a
high pressure ridge builds in from the west. The next upper
trough moves ashore early Sunday with a stronger trough expected
Wednesday.

The trough will push a strong cold front southward that will blow
into the area this evening and pass through the region overnight
and early Saturday morning. The front will be accompanied by a
gusty N/NE wind. This will bring a sudden change to the recent
unseasonably warm wx. Highs Saturday will only be in the 60s and
70s... with readings Sunday in the 70s areawide but the cool down
will be short lived.  By Sunday afternoon the wind will start to
come back around to the south as a new leeside trough develops.
Temperatures climb back into the 90s early next week under upper
ridge. Have upgraded High Wind Watch tonight for GDP to a warning
as high wind conditions expected as the cold front is channeled
through the pass.

Low clouds expected to move down behind the front. Some models do
try to develop some light precip tonight along the front as it
crosses the Pecos and hits the higher elevations. Will through in
mention of isolated showers tonight but not expecting much. Rest
of the forecast looks dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  66  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  69  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  73  52  76 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  68  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  64  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  65  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          45  69  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  67  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  67  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           52  69  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/72
594
FXUS64 KMAF 211735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be elevated out of the northwest early this afternoon
at most terminals before becoming westerly around mid-afternoon. A
cold front with gusty north to northeast winds will push into the
area around 06z. Around this same time, low ceilings will develop
across the area. The winds will gradually decrease later in the
morning and ceilings will improve but still may remain MVFR.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, though a strong
cold front tonight will provide a break from the heat for this
weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and
Sunday, with a quick return to above normal expected early next
week. Precipitation chances are slim to none the next seven days.

This morning, thunderstorms are developing across northeastern New
Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle in response to a shortwave
moving out of southeastern Colorado. These storms are expected to
remain well north of the area, with dry conditions expected
areawide today. Yesterday`s weak cold front has already begun to
lift north, with southerly to southeasterly return flow developing
in its wake this morning. Winds will veer to the west by this
afternoon, with downslope warming expected to result in highs
today in the middle 80s to middle 90s for most of the area.
Locations through the Rio Grande Valley could see highs 100-105
this afternoon, similar to yesterday. The continued very warm and
dry conditions are also expected to result in near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon, mainly across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains where
fuels have yet to begin to green up. Thus, have issued a Fire
Danger Statement for these areas.

A big change is coming tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
translates toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, pushing a strong
cold front through the area. The front will enter northern zones
late this evening before quickly progressing south to the Rio
Grande by early Saturday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast
in the wake of the front, with a tight surface pressure gradient
expected to result in breezy conditions for most locations. Also,
given the favored northeasterly wind direction, strong gap winds
are expected to develop late tonight through mid-morning Saturday
at Guadalupe Pass. A High Wind Watch has been issued for this
area, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible for several
hours. Temperatures tonight/early Saturday behind the front will
be noticeably cooler than the past several nights, with lows in
the 40s expected for most of the Permian Basin, southeastern New
Mexico, and higher terrain. 50s are expected elsewhere, with a few
lows in the 60s through the Rio Grande Valley.

Much cooler weather is expected Saturday, with highs in the 60s
and 70s for most of the area, a far cry from the 80s and 90s
we`ve been used to this week. Low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
or fog will be possible through the morning on Saturday behind the
front, though skies are expected to gradually clear during the
afternoon. Saturday night will be another very cool night, with
decreasing winds and clear skies resulting in ample radiational
cooling, and low temperatures in the low to middle 40s most
locations, and lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
Easterly flow Sunday will keep temperatures from warming too much,
with highs mainly in the 70s. By Sunday night, southerly flow
will return at the surface under zonal flow aloft, paving the way
for a quick warm up into early next week, with highs in the 80s
and 90s expected each day from Monday onward. The next chance for
rain could be next Thursday night/Friday as a trough progresses
through the Great Basin, but until then, dry conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  47  68  46 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  60  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  94  51  71  47 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  46  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  49  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         92  48  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           93  52  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
411
FXUS64 KMAF 211106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBY have yet to develop in HOB area but still have few
hrs before w winds bring an end to the possibility. KMAF VWP does
show a 55kt low level at 1KFT AGL and surface wind around 10kts
will continue with wind shear until 13Z. Cold front still on
schedule to arrive before 06Z tonight and post-frontal MVFR CIGS
are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, though a strong
cold front tonight will provide a break from the heat for this
weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and
Sunday, with a quick return to above normal expected early next
week. Precipitation chances are slim to none the next seven days.

This morning, thunderstorms are developing across northeastern New
Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle in response to a shortwave
moving out of southeastern Colorado. These storms are expected to
remain well north of the area, with dry conditions expected
areawide today. Yesterday`s weak cold front has already begun to
lift north, with southerly to southeasterly return flow developing
in its wake this morning. Winds will veer to the west by this
afternoon, with downslope warming expected to result in highs
today in the middle 80s to middle 90s for most of the area.
Locations through the Rio Grande Valley could see highs 100-105
this afternoon, similar to yesterday. The continued very warm and
dry conditions are also expected to result in near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon, mainly across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains where
fuels have yet to begin to green up. Thus, have issued a Fire
Danger Statement for these areas.

A big change is coming tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
translates toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, pushing a strong
cold front through the area. The front will enter northern zones
late this evening before quickly progressing south to the Rio
Grande by early Saturday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast
in the wake of the front, with a tight surface pressure gradient
expected to result in breezy conditions for most locations. Also,
given the favored northeasterly wind direction, strong gap winds
are expected to develop late tonight through mid-morning Saturday
at Guadalupe Pass. A High Wind Watch has been issued for this
area, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible for several
hours. Temperatures tonight/early Saturday behind the front will
be noticeably cooler than the past several nights, with lows in
the 40s expected for most of the Permian Basin, southeastern New
Mexico, and higher terrain. 50s are expected elsewhere, with a few
lows in the 60s through the Rio Grande Valley.

Much cooler weather is expected Saturday, with highs in the 60s
and 70s for most of the area, a far cry from the 80s and 90s
we`ve been used to this week. Low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
or fog will be possible through the morning on Saturday behind the
front, though skies are expected to gradually clear during the
afternoon. Saturday night will be another very cool night, with
decreasing winds and clear skies resulting in ample radiational
cooling, and low temperatures in the low to middle 40s most
locations, and lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
Easterly flow Sunday will keep temperatures from warming too much,
with highs mainly in the 70s. By Sunday night, southerly flow
will return at the surface under zonal flow aloft, paving the way
for a quick warm up into early next week, with highs in the 80s
and 90s expected each day from Monday onward. The next chance for
rain could be next Thursday night/Friday as a trough progresses
through the Great Basin, but until then, dry conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  47  68  46 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  60  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  94  51  71  47 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  46  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  49  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         92  48  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           93  52  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
000
FXUS64 KMAF 210857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, though a strong
cold front tonight will provide a break from the heat for this
weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and
Sunday, with a quick return to above normal expected early next
week. Precipitation chances are slim to none the next seven days.

This morning, thunderstorms are developing across northeastern New
Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle in response to a shortwave
moving out of southeastern Colorado. These storms are expected to
remain well north of the area, with dry conditions expected
areawide today. Yesterday`s weak cold front has already begun to
lift north, with southerly to southeasterly return flow developing
in its wake this morning. Winds will veer to the west by this
afternoon, with downslope warming expected to result in highs
today in the middle 80s to middle 90s for most of the area.
Locations through the Rio Grande Valley could see highs 100-105
this afternoon, similar to yesterday. The continued very warm and
dry conditions are also expected to result in near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon, mainly across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains where
fuels have yet to begin to green up. Thus, have issued a Fire
Danger Statement for these areas.

A big change is coming tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
translates toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, pushing a strong
cold front through the area. The front will enter northern zones
late this evening before quickly progressing south to the Rio
Grande by early Saturday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast
in the wake of the front, with a tight surface pressure gradient
expected to result in breezy conditions for most locations. Also,
given the favored northeasterly wind direction, strong gap winds
are expected to develop late tonight through mid-morning Saturday
at Guadalupe Pass. A High Wind Watch has been issued for this
area, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible for several
hours. Temperatures tonight/early Saturday behind the front will
be noticeably cooler than the past several nights, with lows in
the 40s expected for most of the Permian Basin, southeastern New
Mexico, and higher terrain. 50s are expected elsewhere, with a few
lows in the 60s through the Rio Grande Valley.

Much cooler weather is expected Saturday, with highs in the 60s
and 70s for most of the area, a far cry from the 80s and 90s
we`ve been used to this week. Low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
or fog will be possible through the morning on Saturday behind the
front, though skies are expected to gradually clear during the
afternoon. Saturday night will be another very cool night, with
decreasing winds and clear skies resulting in ample radiational
cooling, and low temperatures in the low to middle 40s most
locations, and lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
Easterly flow Sunday will keep temperatures from warming too much,
with highs mainly in the 70s. By Sunday night, southerly flow
will return at the surface under zonal flow aloft, paving the way
for a quick warm up into early next week, with highs in the 80s
and 90s expected each day from Monday onward. The next chance for
rain could be next Thursday night/Friday as a trough progresses
through the Great Basin, but until then, dry conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  47  68  46 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  60  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  94  51  71  47 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  46  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  49  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         92  48  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           93  52  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
437
FXUS64 KMAF 210500
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front between MAF/HOB with satellite showing low clouds
attempting to develop SW toward HOB and have included a TEMPO MVFR
group for few hrs this morning. Otherwise LLJ will set up
favorable for development wind shear at MAF. Surface winds will
turn wly mid/late morning ahead a cold front that will arrive
around 03Z tmw night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  64  92  47 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       86  53  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  64  95  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  54  85  43 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          88  47  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  64  93  48 /   0  10   0  10
Odessa                         90  64  92  48 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                           92  58  92  50 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
234
FXUS64 KMAF 202318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under mostly
clear skies. The exception will be KHOB where tempo MVFR
ceilings are expected in the 21/11z to 21/15z timeframe.
Low level wind shear is expected at KMAF from 21/06z to 21/11z
timeframe.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushing into the areas today extends from near Pecos
newd to around Snyder, meanwhile a developing area of surface low
pressure Fri AM signals its temporary retreat to the n though. A
few -SHRA/-TSRA are possible tonight across the far ne CWFA near
the front. Fri will be the last of what has been a series of days
with above normal high temps. As the mid level trof moves across
the Southern Plains the cold front will surge swd passing thru all
of the PB by 06Z/Sat. Post-frontal winds of 20-25 mph are expected
per tight MSLP gradient. Isentropic lift will be confined in the
295-300K layer (~1500 ft) and will promote the development of low
clouds and in the absence of a notable shrtwv trof precip is not
expected, although -DZ/FG is possible thru mid Sat AM? NAM12 is
the coolest and keeps clouds in thru mid day Sat. For now we will
forecast highs 60-70, except warmer in the lower elevations of
the Trans Pecos, but temps could need to be dropped 5 degrees if
clouds hold in. As clouds and winds decrease Sunday morning the
stage will be set for a rather cool morning, lows 40-45, except a
few U30s in Lea Co and on Marfa Plateau. Return flow, mid level
ridging, sunshine will favor high temps rebounding back into the
70s Sunday PM. Thereafter much warmer Mon-Wed with thermal ridge
amplification and moving e, but likely dry thru Fri. On Fri and
upper low will start to approach from 4 Corners area result in
cooler wx next weekend?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  92  47  67 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  88  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  97  62  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  85  43  66 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  87  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  93  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         64  92  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           58  92  50  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
251
FXUS64 KMAF 201912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushing into the areas today extends from near Pecos
newd to around Snyder, meanwhile a developing area of surface low
pressure Fri AM signals its temporary retreat to the n though. A
few -SHRA/-TSRA are possible tonight across the far ne CWFA near
the front. Fri will be the last of what has been a series of days
with above normal high temps. As the mid level trof moves across
the Southern Plains the cold front will surge swd passing thru all
of the PB by 06Z/Sat. Post-frontal winds of 20-25 mph are expected
per tight MSLP gradient. Isentropic lift will be confined in the
295-300K layer (~1500 ft) and will promote the development of low
clouds and in the absence of a notable shrtwv trof precip is not
expected, although -DZ/FG is possible thru mid Sat AM? NAM12 is
the coolest and keeps clouds in thru mid day Sat. For now we will
forecast highs 60-70, except warmer in the lower elevations of
the Trans Pecos, but temps could need to be dropped 5 degrees if
clouds hold in. As clouds and winds decrease Sunday morning the
stage will be set for a rather cool morning, lows 40-45, except a
few U30s in Lea Co and on Marfa Plateau. Return flow, mid level
ridging, sunshine will favor high temps rebounding back into the
70s Sunday PM. Thereafter much warmer Mon-Wed with thermal ridge
amplification and moving e, but likely dry thru Fri. On Fri and
upper low will start to approach from 4 Corners area result in
cooler wx next weekend?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  92  47  67 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  88  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  97  62  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  85  43  66 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  87  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  93  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         64  92  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           58  92  50  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
288
FXUS64 KMAF 201912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushing into the areas today extends from near Pecos
newd to around Snyder, meanwhile a developing area of surface low
pressure Fri AM signals its temporary retreat to the n though. A
few -SHRA/-TSRA are possible tonight across the far ne CWFA near
the front. Fri will be the last of what has been a series of days
with above normal high temps. As the mid level trof moves across
the Southern Plains the cold front will surge swd passing thru all
of the PB by 06Z/Sat. Post-frontal winds of 20-25 mph are expected
per tight MSLP gradient. Isentropic lift will be confined in the
295-300K layer (~1500 ft) and will promote the development of low
clouds and in the absence of a notable shrtwv trof precip is not
expected, although -DZ/FG is possible thru mid Sat AM? NAM12 is
the coolest and keeps clouds in thru mid day Sat. For now we will
forecast highs 60-70, except warmer in the lower elevations of
the Trans Pecos, but temps could need to be dropped 5 degrees if
clouds hold in. As clouds and winds decrease Sunday morning the
stage will be set for a rather cool morning, lows 40-45, except a
few U30s in Lea Co and on Marfa Plateau. Return flow, mid level
ridging, sunshine will favor high temps rebounding back into the
70s Sunday PM. Thereafter much warmer Mon-Wed with thermal ridge
amplification and moving e, but likely dry thru Fri. On Fri and
upper low will start to approach from 4 Corners area result in
cooler wx next weekend?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  92  47  67 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  88  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  97  62  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  85  43  66 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  87  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  93  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         64  92  48  67 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           58  92  50  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
886
FXUS64 KMAF 201722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front with elevated and gusty northerly winds will continue
to move into the area this afternoon. Winds will start to turn to
the east and southeast overnight and become variable. There is a
chance of low ceilings for MAF and HOB overnight into Friday
morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up across the area will give way to a upper
trough moving across the Rockies overnight and across the
Panhandle/Southern Plains Friday.  After this trough moves east high
pressure returns with another broad trough expected the middle of
next week.

Unseasonably warm wx expected again today and Friday for most of the
area.  A cold front will sag into northern CWA later today and looks
to hang up before lifting northward Friday.  Expect counties to be
10 degrees or more cooler today than rest of the region. Rio Grande
Village was the hot place in area yesterday at 104... should be
around that again today and Friday.  A stronger front blows through
Friday night/Saturday morning bringing cooler wx for the weekend
with highs mainly in the 70s.  The cooldown should be short lived as
90s return next week.

Going with a dry forecast... some models try to develop a little
light precip Friday morning behind the front but not believing it.
Long range models hint at some chance of rain late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  62  91  49 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       86  53  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         93  66  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  64  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  57  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  55  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  63  92  51 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  62  92  50 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           92  60  94  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
935
FXUS64 KMAF 201134
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through the
forecast period, with the exception of HOB, where brief MVFR
visibility in fog is possible early this morning. A weak cold
front will move through the area today, with winds veering around
to the northeast by this afternoon, with a few gusts to around
20kt possible. Winds will veer to the southeast after 21/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up across the area will give way to a upper
trough moving across the Rockies overnight and across the
Panhandle/Southern Plains Friday.  After this trough moves east high
pressure returns with another broad trough expected the middle of
next week.

Unseasonably warm wx expected again today and Friday for most of the
area.  A cold front will sag into northern CWA later today and looks
to hang up before lifting northward Friday.  Expect counties to be
10 degrees or more cooler today than rest of the region. Rio Grande
Village was the hot place in area yesterday at 104... should be
around that again today and Friday.  A stronger front blows through
Friday night/Saturday morning bringing cooler wx for the weekend
with highs mainly in the 70s.  The cooldown should be short lived as
90s return next week.

Going with a dry forecast... some models try to develop a little
light precip Friday morning behind the front but not believing it.
Long range models hint at some chance of rain late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  62  91  49 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       86  53  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         93  66  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  64  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  57  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  55  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          88  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  63  92  51 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  62  92  50 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           92  60  94  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
167
FXUS64 KMAF 200747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up across the area will give way to a upper
trough moving across the Rockies overnight and across the
Panhandle/Southern Plains Friday.  After this trough moves east high
pressure returns with another broad trough expected the middle of
next week.

Unseasonably warm wx expected again today and Friday for most of the
area.  A cold front will sag into northern CWA later today and looks
to hang up before lifting northward Friday.  Expect counties to be
10 degrees or more cooler today than rest of the region. Rio Grande
Village was the hot place in area yesterday at 104... should be
around that again today and Friday.  A stronger front blows through
Friday night/Saturday morning bringing cooler wx for the weekend
with highs mainly in the 70s.  The cooldown should be short lived as
90s return next week.

Going with a dry forecast... some models try to develop a little
light precip Friday morning behind the front but not believing it.
Long range models hint at some chance of rain late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  62  91  49 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       86  53  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         93  66  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  64  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 82  57  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          82  55  86  45 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          88  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  63  92  51 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  62  92  50 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           92  60  94  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
400
FXUS64 KMAF 200519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A weak
cold front will move into the area Thursday morning and progress
southward, resulting in a northeasterly wind shift at all
terminals, and a few gusts to around 20kt possible. Winds will
then veer to the east/southeast after 21/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Quiet night across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under weak
ridging aloft. Latest NAM suggests temps can be adjusted down a
little north, and raised a little south. We`ll do a quick update
to reflect this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. South winds will shift
from the northeast 12-18Z as a weak cold front moves into the
area.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains in place today with sunny skies and high
temperatures expected to reach 90 most places and near/exceeding 100
along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will flatten to the south
Thursday as a weak upper wave swings through the north Central
Plains. A cold front will make a run for the area Thursday and it
could make it to near Interstate 20 before stalling around mid day.
Latest MET guidance is much cooler across the northern half of the
CWA while the MAV has only cooled high temps by a couple of degrees.
The front looks to be fairly shallow so think cool surface temps
would mix out fairly quickly through the afternoon so will lean
toward the warmer MAV for now. Areas south of I-20 can expect high
temperatures in the 90s. Thursday looks dry for the most part
however a few showers/storms could affect the far NE Permian Basin
Thursday evening.

A stronger upper trough will swing through N OK/S KS Friday,
resulting in breezy conditions Friday afternoon across SE NM and
much of W TX. Friday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to
low/mid 90s. A strong cold front pushes south through region Friday
night, cooling temperatures down for the weekend! Friday night
through Saturday morning will be fairly windy/cool behind the front
and a light jacket may be warranted for those with Saturday morning
outdoor activities planned. Moisture looks limited with the frontal
passage so will keep the forecast dry. High temperatures generally
in the 70s can be expected through the weekend with early morning
lows in the 40s/50s Saturday and even cooler Sunday morning with
lows in the 40s most locations. By Monday, weak upper ridging builds
overhead and southerly flow returns at the surface. As such, a
warming trend through mid week can be expected with no good chances
for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  91  51 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       87  56  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  65  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  94  63  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 84  58  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  55  87  45 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          88  48  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           90  63  92  50 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  62  92  50 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           92  59  93  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
864
FXUS64 KMAF 200308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet night across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under weak
ridging aloft. Latest NAM suggests temps can be adjusted down a
little north, and raised a little south. We`ll do a quick update
to reflect this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. South winds will shift
from the northeast 12-18Z as a weak cold front moves into the
area.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains in place today with sunny skies and high
temperatures expected to reach 90 most places and near/exceeding 100
along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will flatten to the south
Thursday as a weak upper wave swings through the north Central
Plains. A cold front will make a run for the area Thursday and it
could make it to near Interstate 20 before stalling around mid day.
Latest MET guidance is much cooler across the northern half of the
CWA while the MAV has only cooled high temps by a couple of degrees.
The front looks to be fairly shallow so think cool surface temps
would mix out fairly quickly through the afternoon so will lean
toward the warmer MAV for now. Areas south of I-20 can expect high
temperatures in the 90s. Thursday looks dry for the most part
however a few showers/storms could affect the far NE Permian Basin
Thursday evening.

A stronger upper trough will swing through N OK/S KS Friday,
resulting in breezy conditions Friday afternoon across SE NM and
much of W TX. Friday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to
low/mid 90s. A strong cold front pushes south through region Friday
night, cooling temperatures down for the weekend! Friday night
through Saturday morning will be fairly windy/cool behind the front
and a light jacket may be warranted for those with Saturday morning
outdoor activities planned. Moisture looks limited with the frontal
passage so will keep the forecast dry. High temperatures generally
in the 70s can be expected through the weekend with early morning
lows in the 40s/50s Saturday and even cooler Sunday morning with
lows in the 40s most locations. By Monday, weak upper ridging builds
overhead and southerly flow returns at the surface. As such, a
warming trend through mid week can be expected with no good chances
for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  87  63  91 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       57  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  83  55  87 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          52  88  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           58  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/44
242
FXUS64 KMAF 192333
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. South winds will shift
from the northeast 12-18Z as a weak cold front moves into the
area.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains in place today with sunny skies and high
temperatures expected to reach 90 most places and near/exceeding 100
along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will flatten to the south
Thursday as a weak upper wave swings through the north Central
Plains. A cold front will make a run for the area Thursday and it
could make it to near Interstate 20 before stalling around mid day.
Latest MET guidance is much cooler across the northern half of the
CWA while the MAV has only cooled high temps by a couple of degrees.
The front looks to be fairly shallow so think cool surface temps
would mix out fairly quickly through the afternoon so will lean
toward the warmer MAV for now. Areas south of I-20 can expect high
temperatures in the 90s. Thursday looks dry for the most part
however a few showers/storms could affect the far NE Permian Basin
Thursday evening.

A stronger upper trough will swing through N OK/S KS Friday,
resulting in breezy conditions Friday afternoon across SE NM and
much of W TX. Friday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to
low/mid 90s. A strong cold front pushes south through region Friday
night, cooling temperatures down for the weekend! Friday night
through Saturday morning will be fairly windy/cool behind the front
and a light jacket may be warranted for those with Saturday morning
outdoor activities planned. Moisture looks limited with the frontal
passage so will keep the forecast dry. High temperatures generally
in the 70s can be expected through the weekend with early morning
lows in the 40s/50s Saturday and even cooler Sunday morning with
lows in the 40s most locations. By Monday, weak upper ridging builds
overhead and southerly flow returns at the surface. As such, a
warming trend through mid week can be expected with no good chances
for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  87  63  91 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       59  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  62  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  83  55  87 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          47  88  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         63  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           60  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
624
FXUS64 KMAF 191923
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
223 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging remains in place today with sunny skies and high
temperatures expected to reach 90 most places and near/exceeding 100
along the Rio Grande. The upper ridge will flatten to the south
Thursday as a weak upper wave swings through the north Central
Plains. A cold front will make a run for the area Thursday and it
could make it to near Interstate 20 before stalling around mid day.
Latest MET guidance is much cooler across the northern half of the
CWA while the MAV has only cooled high temps by a couple of degrees.
The front looks to be fairly shallow so think cool surface temps
would mix out fairly quickly through the afternoon so will lean
toward the warmer MAV for now. Areas south of I-20 can expect high
temperatures in the 90s. Thursday looks dry for the most part
however a few showers/storms could affect the far NE Permian Basin
Thursday evening.

A stronger upper trough will swing through N OK/S KS Friday,
resulting in breezy conditions Friday afternoon across SE NM and
much of W TX. Friday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to
low/mid 90s. A strong cold front pushes south through region Friday
night, cooling temperatures down for the weekend! Friday night
through Saturday morning will be fairly windy/cool behind the front
and a light jacket may be warranted for those with Saturday morning
outdoor activities planned. Moisture looks limited with the frontal
passage so will keep the forecast dry. High temperatures generally
in the 70s can be expected through the weekend with early morning
lows in the 40s/50s Saturday and even cooler Sunday morning with
lows in the 40s most locations. By Monday, weak upper ridging builds
overhead and southerly flow returns at the surface. As such, a
warming trend through mid week can be expected with no good chances
for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  87  63  91 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       59  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  62  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  83  55  87 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          47  88  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         63  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           60  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/27
365
FXUS64 KMAF 191702
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with fairly light
winds. A weak cold front will make a run at the NM terminals
around sunrise Thursday. Expect winds to shift to the north behind
the front before it washes out over the area during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  89  64  91 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         64  95  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  94  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  89  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  93  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         61  92  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  94  60  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29