Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 170544

1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014


Area radars show main batch of earlier convection leaving the area
to the SE, while up north, a line of storms is entering the S.
Plains along a cold front. Latest models bring the front into KHOB
at around 15Z...and thru KFST 00Z. Prefer to hold off introducing
convection along the front later today, as models have had a poor
grasp on the situation the past couple of days. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 6-7kft agl.
Buffer soundings hint at post-frontal stratus moving in near 12Z
Friday, but this would be beyond this forecast pd.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/


Please see the 17/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.


Complicated and messy forecast. A linear MCS east of all terminals
has pushed an outflow boundary northwest through MAF and just
about to INK. Additional TSRA has moved off the higher terrain west
of the Pecos and should be enough to warrant a TEMPO for MAF, INK,
PEQ, and FST. After PBL stabilization later this evening the TSRA
around the region should wane. However, a large MCS -- perhaps
developing now southeast of Raton Mesa -- will track southeastward
across the Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma, and north central
Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This in turn will send an outflow
boundary/front into the Permian Basin sometime Thursday afternoon.
This boundary may then provide focus for additional thunderstorm
development, some strong to severe per the last SWODY1 from SPC.
Don`t have confidence right now in placement of this boundary this
far out, nor do we have confidence in putting even a PROB30 at any
one terminal at this time. Surface winds through the next 6 hours
will be tricky enough. So -- outside of TSRA, expect VFR conditions
and southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with locally higher
gusts. INVOF TSRA, MVFR conditions will be likely with variable
gusty winds over 30 kts along with associated turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/


A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country
with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow
aloft.  Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this
northwest flow.  Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding
area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and
eastern New Mexico.  Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the
main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is
possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear
values are higher.  Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to
be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is
expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into
the CWA during the afternoon.  This will enhance lift over the
region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday.  Severe storms will be possible across the northern and
eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km
bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12.  The lacking
factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to
reach 7 degrees C/km.  High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to
pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover
and precipitation.

The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold
front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning.
Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the
front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to
the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening.  Some
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with
CAPE values remaining high along the front.  Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in
close proximity to the area.

An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so
thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will begin to
warm up across the area as a result of the ridge.  Many places will
see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday.





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