Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 141000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast in the short term, as WV
imagery shows NW flow continuing aloft, w/current models indicating
this shall remain so thru at least Wednesday afternoon.  At the sfc,
a fast-moving cold front was making its way thru the Panhandles,
w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 15Z.  This will
be followed by another, weaker front Monday morning, and a 3rd
Tuesday as a series of shortwaves move into the Great lakes region
over the next few days.  These dry fronts will knock temps down to
around normal by Tuesday afternoon, before a big rebound after
midweek.  Temps Wed-Fri are anticipated climbing into the 80s,
feeling more like late April than mid February as the upper ridge
moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This will be
followed by a shortwave Thursday.  Leeside troughing ahead of this
feature may strengthen SW sfc flow Thursday afternoon, resulting in
fire wx concerns.  However, attm the trough looks too far west and
north.  Regardless, this will need to be monitored for changes, as
this looks to be the most critical day this forecast.  Long range
models begin diverging beyond Thursday, but the latest ECMWF
suggests Saturday could pose fire wx problems, as well, bringing
another shortwave thru.

The one upshot of this forecast is, w/the ridge finally moving east
of the region, the window opens for a chance of rain as soon as
Saturday as return flow brings Gulf moisture back into play.  Chances
really ramp up Sunday and Sunday night as models bring a cold front
into the region.  However, considering model
disagreement/discrepancies, we`ll keep chance POPs at best in
the grids for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  33  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  41  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  44  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          68  36  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          75  27  69  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  39  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  40  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  36  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44

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