Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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505
FXUS64 KMAF 261944
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday...KMAF radar is showing
isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing over the CWA moving
generally south. Outflow boundaries from last nights convection
in the Panhandle and Northeast New Mexico Plains is helping serve
as a focus. This will be the theme for the next few days.

Water Vapor Imagery and High Density Winds shows that the
subtropical ridge is basically split in two...with one center over
the Great Basin and the other center over the Southeast US Coast.
There is a weak inverted trof over East TX basically trapped
between the two ridge centers. In this scenario...which shows
little change thru at least Thursday night...there will be
isolated/scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. The highest
probability will be in the higher terrain with upslope flow and
intense heating. But have widespread isolated pops everywhere else
due to boundaries which won`t mix out in the nearly homogeneous
atmosphere and are notoriously hard to predict. Temperatures will
be near to a degree or two above normal.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week the ridge
center over the Great basin will build east thru the Southern
Plains with the deep layer flow becoming east to northeast. With
the deep layer east to northeast flow there will be good
upslope flow...mainly in the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mtns where
the best chance of convection will be. High temps will once again
be above normal (the theme for July, 2016!) with temps
approaching 100 in the Permian Basin and 100-105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  97  77  95 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       76  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                         78  97  77  97 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  76  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  88  70  87 /  30  20  20  20
Hobbs                          72  95  71  93 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          68  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           76  97  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  96  76  95 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           77  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33

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