Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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402
FXUS64 KMAF 130542
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Evening storms have died out leaving abundant mid and high clouds
mainly across the west.  These should slowly decrease toward morning.
Otherwise light wind tonight will pick up out of the SE during
the day as a leeside trough deepens.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Instability continues to increase areawide as temperatures increase
this afternoon. With dewpoints in the low 60s and easterly upslope
winds (although weak), not surprised to see isolated to scattered
convection developing across southeast New Mexico and west Texas
over the last couple of hours. Higher mid level theta e values (via
NAM12) extending from the Davis/Glass Mountains NE toward the
Guadalupe Mountains. Given current trends and high res models
keeping convection around through this evening, went ahead and
increased PoPs over the mountain regions and extended mention of
isolated thunder north into the Permian Basin. Drier air will filter
into the region tonight as the mid level theta e ridge gets shunted
to the west. There may be just enough moisture/instability to get
diurnal isolated convection over the higher terrain again Wednesday.

The upper ridge, currently amplified over the Rockies, will slowly
shift eastward over the next couple of days centering directly over
NM/west TX. As a result, the 850mb thermal ridge will slowly
intensify across the region and temperatures will gradually warm
up through the weekend. With a 1-2 degree increase each day,
expect several locations to reach or exceed 100 by Saturday.
Unfortunately, mostly dry conditions are expected much of the work
week under the influence of the upper ridge. By Friday, the upper
ridge will shift westward and the mid level theta e ridge will
begin to advect back to the east. This combined with increased
instability (due to daytime heating), could result in the return
of afternoon isolated thunderstorms through the weekend,
particularly near a surface trough axis extending SW from the TX
Panhandle to southeast NM. Otherwise, the upper ridge looks to
stick around next week with continued above normal temperatures
expected.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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