Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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839
FXUS64 KMAF 251712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening at TAF locations with KHOB and KCNM having a better chance
for development than other sites. Localized MVFR conditions are
possible in and near thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014/

The upper ridge over the mid Mississippi River Valley continues
to elongate reaching well into our area. This ridge will shrink as
we head through the upcoming weak as an upper trough digs into the
Rockies. This trough will really not begin to affect the area
until after Wednesday so expect hot temperatures to continue in
the short term.

Showers and even some strong thunderstorms formed yesterday along a
weak sfc trough and an instability axis. This sfc trough looks to be
farther north and west today so storms will be confined mainly to SE
NM, the western PB and the higher terrain of W TX. If this sfc
trough proves to be a little farther south this afternoon, PoPs will
need to be extended south into the PB. Very similar conditions are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The storms will be capable of very
gusty winds and even some small hail.

Large scale models have come into much better agreement regarding
the upcoming pattern change late in the week. The GFS has slowed
down the upper trough coming into the Pacific NW this morning. As
expected yesterday, this now aligns much better with the ECMWF and
CMC. The upper trough will help break down the ridge as it moves
into the Southern Plains by Friday. As it does so, the proximity of
the trough will provide lift and cooler mid level temps which should
produce showers and thunderstorms across most of the area. The best
chance for widespread precip appears to be Thursday and Friday. It
is still unclear whether a front will accompany the trough as most
of the models have a very weak front or not one at all. Nonetheless,
temperatures should cool off late week due to the cloud cover and
rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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