Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 242030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level system passing to the north of the region has
resulted in the return of windy to very windy conditions across
the area today, with the highest gusts so far around 70 MPH
reported in the Guadalupe Mountains. Expect the wind to continue
through the remainder of the afternoon, perhaps increasing over
the next hour or two, particularly across the plains, where areas
of blowing dust are possible. Winds will decrease after sunset
this evening, thus, will go ahead and let the High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory continue until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST as scheduled.
Downslope warming has yielded another unseasonably warm day today,
with afternoon highs expected to reach into the 60s across
Southeast New Mexico to the 80s across the Stockton Plateau and
Rio Grande Valley. Highs in the upper 50s are expected across
higher terrain. The combination of the warm temperatures and windy
conditions have resulted in low relative humidity and Critical
Fire Weather Conditions across portions of the Big Bend Area,
Marfa Plateau, and Presidio Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas until early this evening. Please see the
Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details.

A fairly benign pattern is expected for the rest of this week and
into this weekend as a high amplitude ridge strengthens just off
of the West Coast, and the region remains under dry quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front will move through the area
Wednesday, resulting in temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than today, with highs ranging from the 40s across northern Lea
county and the higher terrain, to upper 60s through the Rio Grande
Valley. Another cold front will arrive on Friday, which will
maintain the below normal temperatures through this weekend. A
shortwave rounding the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
West Coast ridge could bring a chance of rain to southern portions
of the area late Friday night and Saturday, with the best chance
across the Lower Trans Pecos. Lapse rates look to be on the low
side at the moment, so will leave out any mention of thunder.
Saturday also looks to be our coldest day, with highs in the 40s
and 50s areawide. While afternoon high temperatures will be below
normal the next several days, the overnight/early morning lows
will be noticeably colder, generally in the 20s and 30s each day.

Model solutions diverge by Sunday night/Monday, with the ECMWF
developing a cutoff low over northwestern Mexico, which could
bring another shot of precipitation to the region early next week.
However, the GFS maintains dry conditions Sunday onward. Thus,
will not deviate much from the blended solution at this time,
keeping early next week dry, with temperatures returning to
near/just above normal Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

18Z observations of the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend area show
critical 20` winds finally catching up to RH, which has been AOB
15% in many areas for several hours. A few areas further north
are reaching RF criteria but, as discussed earlier, these areas
have had more rain recently than the Big Bend region. The NAM has
done pretty well on winds down there, but is overestimating the
moisture, whereas the GFS is much more realistic. That said, 20`
winds may stay up into the evening hours, but RH looks to rise
above 15% early as the Pac front sets in. Wednesday, elevated fire
wx conditions will be possible in post-frontal NW flow, with lwr
20` winds expected than today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  57  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  57  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  67  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  56  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  43  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  51  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  50  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  56  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  55  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  59  26  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

44/84
826
FXUS64 KMAF 241755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

We`ll also update to add Andrews, Dawson, and Gaines Counties to
the advisory this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest obs suggest asfternoon highs can be bumped up a few
degrees.  Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a Pac front moves
thru the region. Not much wind shift will be noted, but winds will
remain gusty today. A few high clouds are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become strong and gusty out of the west later this morning
especially for CNM...HOB...and PEQ. Winds will decrease in
strength after sunset this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

44/84
994
FXUS64 KMAF 241747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs suggest asfternoon highs can be bumped up a few
degrees.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a Pac front moves
thru the region. Not much wind shift will be noted, but winds will
remain gusty today. A few high clouds are expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become strong and gusty out of the west later this morning
especially for CNM...HOB...and PEQ. Winds will decrease in
strength after sunset this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         70  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos.

&&

$$

44/84
587
FXUS64 KMAF 241526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
926 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours as a Pac front moves
thru the region. Not much wind shift will be noted, but winds will
remain gusty today. A few high clouds are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become strong and gusty out of the west later this morning
especially for CNM...HOB...and PEQ. Winds will decrease in
strength after sunset this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          66  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos.

&&

$$

44/84/44
811
FXUS64 KMAF 241107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become strong and gusty out of the west later this morning
especially for CNM...HOB...and PEQ. Winds will decrease in
strength after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          66  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Loving.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos.

&&

$$

99/99/
407
FXUS64 KMAF 240938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy conditions are expected today. Satellite depicts
a large upper low across the wrn states with several potent shrtwv
trof embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Also a 140-150kt
jet was from srn AZ to ne NM. Meanwhile a closer inspection of water
vapor depicts standing waves across Chihuahua, MX with some indications
of lee wave clouds there too. Overlaying 7h wind and water vapor
shows 60-70kts speed max with said standing waves. GDP Mtn winds
have been increasing across the CWFA early this AM with gusts
already 60-80 mph in highest elevations. According to NAM12 mtn
wave is in process of deepening upshear tilt with 60kts at mtn
top level by 12Z and maximized around 15Z with strong shallow
thermal inversion, indicative of foehn type winds. How far e and s
will these wind expand? With the 75h winds of 45-55kts from the
Davis Mtns into the Chisos Mtns the potential for high wind in the
highest elevations is good. In addition, GFS/NAM12 soundings for
the Chisos Mtns show that the atmosphere will mix to near 7h by
21Z, with 50kts at top of the mixed layer along with mixed layer
average wind of 30-35kt. High wind warnings are already out and
will mostly leave as is while noting most of the Davis/Chisos Mtns
will experience advisory level winds. Also will opt to upgrade
rest of Culberson to a warning. For the plains SE NM will be
subject to breaking waves this morning. Deferring to fcst
soundings for the PB winds will increase quickly around 18Z and
will briefly near advisory levels, gusts to around 35-45 mph are
expected to fairly common by 21Z across the PB, along with areas
of blowing dust. Temps across the wrn half of CWFA will be near
normal to +5 degrees and the ern half will be 5-10 above normal. A
cold front will move thru Wed and high temps will fall back to
around 5 degrees below normal with much drier air accompanying
the front. A high amplitude mid level ridge will remain parked to
the w through the weekend favoring cold surges and surface ridging
Thursday through the weekend. Morning lows will be noticeably
colder.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The driest air is confined to the Big Bend and Presidio Valley this
morning where Panther Junction has been at RF conditions the last
few hrs. GFS has recently performed well with regard to sfc RH and
we will side with its soln of RH 10-15 pct into Pecos/Brewster
Pecos/Terrell Co today. Recent rain also missed the Big Bend and
Presidio Valley, and recent fire in the Chisos Mtns does indicate
some burning potential with ERC at Chisos Basin fcst to be 68
(above normal) today. As such we will issue a RFW for Brewster and
Presidio Counties. We opt to exclude Pecos Co based on recent
rain and lower ERC. Elevated fire wx conditions Wed across the
Lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       65  30  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  37  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  25  43  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  28  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          66  29  50  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  34  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  34  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  32  57  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Loving-Reeves
     Counties and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
763
FXUS64 KMAF 240446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS,
resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming
pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations.  KMAF has
reached 74F so far, making it feel more like late March than late
January.  Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are
muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east,
w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight.  An upper trough
currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to
its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours.  Leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW
flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
The NAM develops a decent mtn wave signature overnight into Tuesday,
when H7 height gradients tighten up to ~ 60m/150nm over the western
mtns by 18Z.  Both NAM and GFS buffer soundings for KGDP mix out to
around 750mb at that time, where westerly 45-50kt winds are
forecast. These wind s will translate south into the Big Bend area,
as well.  Thus, we`ll issue high wind warnings for the mountains out
west beginning 06z Tue and continuing thru 00Z Wed, and advisories
for adjacent plains.  These may need to be extended beyond 00Z Wed,
but for clarity or products, we`ll address this in later shifts.

W/the strong winds expected Tuesday come fire wx concerns.  Attm,
w/the arrival of the Pac front, RH looks to remain out of critical
territory except along the Rio Grande, where Fire Danger is high and
thus red flag conditions will be possible.  ERCs remain below
normal, but are on the upswing.  If nothing else, Tuesday looks like
a candidate for a Fire Danger Statement.

As noted above, unfortunately a Pac front will arrive overnight and
Tuesday, taking temps Tuesday afternoon down around 10 degrees from
today, and below-normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Another front
arrives Friday to keep temps below normal, followed by an upper
trough Saturday.  If it was going to rain this forecast, it would be
Saturday but, attm, not enough moisture looks to be in place to
justify POPs except in the extreme lwr Trans Pecos.  Otherwise,
temps poke back above-normal Monday as an upper trough begins
developing off the Baja Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  76  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  49  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  62  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  65  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  63  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  62  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for Loving.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
703
FXUS64 KMAF 232316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southwest winds occasionally gusting in
the afternoon can be expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS,
resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming
pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations.  KMAF has
reached 74F so far, making it feel more like late March than late
January.  Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are
muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east,
w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight.  An upper trough
currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to
its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours.  Leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW
flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
The NAM develops a decent mtn wave signature overnight into Tuesday,
when H7 height gradients tighten up to ~ 60m/150nm over the western
mtns by 18Z.  Both NAM and GFS buffer soundings for KGDP mix out to
around 750mb at that time, where westerly 45-50kt winds are
forecast. These wind s will translate south into the Big Bend area,
as well.  Thus, we`ll issue high wind warnings for the mountains out
west beginning 06z Tue and continuing thru 00Z Wed, and advisories
for adjacent plains.  These may need to be extended beyond 00Z Wed,
but for clarity or products, we`ll address this in later shifts.

W/the strong winds expected Tuesday come fire wx concerns.  Attm,
w/the arrival of the Pac front, RH looks to remain out of critical
territory except along the Rio Grande, where Fire Danger is high and
thus red flag conditions will be possible.  ERCs remain below
normal, but are on the upswing.  If nothing else, Tuesday looks like
a candidate for a Fire Danger Statement.

As noted above, unfortunately a Pac front will arrive overnight and
Tuesday, taking temps Tuesday afternoon down around 10 degrees from
today, and below-normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Another front
arrives Friday to keep temps below normal, followed by an upper
trough Saturday.  If it was going to rain this forecast, it would be
Saturday but, attm, not enough moisture looks to be in place to
justify POPs except in the extreme lwr Trans Pecos.  Otherwise,
temps poke back above-normal Monday as an upper trough begins
developing off the Baja Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  76  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  49  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  62  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  65  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  63  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  62  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for Loving.

     Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
944
FXUS64 KMAF 232050
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge spanning the central CONUS,
resulting in mostly sunny skies and an unseasonably warm day across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as breezy downslope warming
pumps afternoon temps into the 70s at many locations.  KMAF has
reached 74F so far, making it feel more like late March than late
January.  Unfortunately, to the west, a couple of troughs are
muscling their way east, and will continue shunting the ridge east,
w/zonal flow aloft transitioning to SW overnight.  An upper trough
currently off the OR/CA coast is forecast to merge w/another just to
its east and arrive over SD/NE in around 24 hours.  Leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase SW
flow overnight, setting things up for a another wind event Tuesday.
The NAM develops a decent mtn wave signature overnight into Tuesday,
when H7 height gradients tighten up to ~ 60m/150nm over the western
mtns by 18Z.  Both NAM and GFS buffer soundings for KGDP mix out to
around 750mb at that time, where westerly 45-50kt winds are
forecast. These wind s will translate south into the Big Bend area,
as well.  Thus, we`ll issue high wind warnings for the mountains out
west beginning 06z Tue and continuing thru 00Z Wed, and advisories
for adjacent plains.  These may need to be extended beyond 00Z Wed,
but for clarity or products, we`ll address this in later shifts.

W/the strong winds expected Tuesday come fire wx concerns.  Attm,
w/the arrival of the Pac front, RH looks to remain out of critical
territory except along the Rio Grande, where Fire Danger is high and
thus red flag conditions will be possible.  ERCs remain below
normal, but are on the upswing.  If nothing else, Tuesday looks like
a candidate for a Fire Danger Statement.

As noted above, unfortunately a Pac front will arrive overnight and
Tuesday, taking temps Tuesday afternoon down around 10 degrees from
today, and below-normal Wednesday and Thursday.  Another front
arrives Friday to keep temps below normal, followed by an upper
trough Saturday.  If it was going to rain this forecast, it would be
Saturday but, attm, not enough moisture looks to be in place to
justify POPs except in the extreme lwr Trans Pecos.  Otherwise,
temps poke back above-normal Monday as an upper trough begins
developing off the Baja Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       44  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  76  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  49  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  62  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  65  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  63  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  62  32  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM
     CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for Loving.

     Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

84/44
052
FXUS64 KMAF 231740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Southwest winds
could gust to around 20-25kt this afternoon, with gusts
diminishing after sunset. Winds will back to the south overnight
and should remain under 12kt. By Tuesday morning, winds will
increase as they veer to the W/SW, with gusty conditions expected
at most terminals throughout the day on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will be under a ridge aloft as the next upper trough moves over CA.
This trough will reach the 4 corners region overnight and move near
the region Tuesday passing over the area Wednesday.  A Flat ridge
sets up after that with zonal flow across the southern portion of
the country.

The approach of the upper trough will be accompanied by 700mb winds
of up to 75kts.  This should result in high wind across the
Guadalupe Mtns Tuesday... will issue a watch. Should be windy across
much of the plains too... could see a wind advisory being needed for
adjacent counties.

Temperatures will be warm today with highs climbing into the 70s
under sunny skies and with a warm SW wind... but a Pacific front
will sweep across the area Tuesday pushing temps down about 10
degrees. Looks like a secondary front Wednesday will knock highs
down into the 50s through the rest of the week.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  35  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  33  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  48  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  37  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  36  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  27  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  39  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  39  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  33  63  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
040
FXUS64 KMAF 231127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
527 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals. Light winds this morning will increase this
afternoon with gusts to 20-25kt at a few sites. Winds will diminish
after sunset but look to increase toward the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will be under a ridge aloft as the next upper trough moves over CA.
This trough will reach the 4 corners region overnight and move near
the region Tuesday passing over the area Wednesday.  A Flat ridge
sets up after that with zonal flow across the southern portion of
the country.

The approach of the upper trough will be accompanied by 700mb winds
of up to 75kts.  This should result in high wind across the
Guadalupe Mtns Tuesday... will issue a watch. Should be windy across
much of the plains too... could see a wind advisory being needed for
adjacent counties.

Temperatures will be warm today with highs climbing into the 70s
under sunny skies and with a warm SW wind... but a Pacific front
will sweep across the area Tuesday pushing temps down about 10
degrees. Looks like a secondary front Wednesday will knock highs
down into the 50s through the rest of the week.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  45  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  43  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  48  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  38  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  41  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  33  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  45  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  45  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  42  63  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
680
FXUS64 KMAF 230906
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will be under a ridge aloft as the next upper trough moves over CA.
This trough will reach the 4 corners region overnight and move near
the region Tuesday passing over the area Wednesday.  A Flat ridge
sets up after that with zonal flow across the southern portion of
the country.

The approach of the upper trough will be accompanied by 700mb winds
of up to 75kts.  This should result in high wind across the
Guadalupe Mtns Tuesday... will issue a watch. Should be windy across
much of the plains too... could see a wind advisory being needed for
adjacent counties.

Temperatures will be warm today with highs climbing into the 70s
under sunny skies and with a warm SW wind... but a Pacific front
will sweep across the area Tuesday pushing temps down about 10
degrees. Looks like a secondary front Wednesday will knock highs
down into the 50s through the rest of the week.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  45  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  43  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  78  48  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  38  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  41  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  33  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  45  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  45  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  42  63  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
710
FXUS64 KMAF 230442
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1042 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southwest winds gusting Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Current sfc observations show winds continuing to decrease across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/strongest activity over the
Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos as the tail-end of strong winds rounding
the base of the upper trough leaves the region.  As such, all wind
warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire.

WV imagery shows the upper trough now over the Arklamiss, and
subsidence on the backside of this feature has resulted in CAVU
conditions across the region under NW flow aloft.  To the west, an
upper ridge will briefly build into the area Monday, w/thicknesses
increasing and downslope warming pumping temps into the 70s most
locations.  Unfortunately, an upper trough will move out of the
PacNW and into the upper Midwest by Tuesday afternoon, shunting the
ridge to the east and pushing a cold front into the region under SW
flow aloft.  Attm, winds throughout the CWA look to remain below
high wind criteria, although advisories may be needed in the
mountainous areas out west.  In addition, RH down in the Big Bend
may reach 15% or less Tuesday afternoon, and this will need to be
monitored.  ERCs are still below normal, but Fire Danger is high.

Temps will drop with the Pac front Tuesday, but a secondary front
Wednesday will take temps below normal.  Unfortunately, these temps
won`t budge much into the extended, as another front reinforces
colder temps Friday, and a dry trough moves thru over the weekend.
Thru this all, rain chances look slim to none, and the grids remain
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  73  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  70  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         42  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  78  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  59  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  68  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  69  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  73  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  73  42  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
827
FXUS64 KMAF 222305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light to moderate southwest to west winds
expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Current sfc observations show winds continuing to decrease across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/strongest activity over the
Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos as the tail-end of strong winds rounding
the base of the upper trough leaves the region.  As such, all wind
warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire.

WV imagery shows the upper trough now over the Arklamiss, and
subsidence on the backside of this feature has resulted in CAVU
conditions across the region under NW flow aloft.  To the west, an
upper ridge will briefly build into the area Monday, w/thicknesses
increasing and downslope warming pumping temps into the 70s most
locations.  Unfortunately, an upper trough will move out of the
PacNW and into the upper Midwest by Tuesday afternoon, shunting the
ridge to the east and pushing a cold front into the region under SW
flow aloft.  Attm, winds throughout the CWA look to remain below
high wind criteria, although advisories may be needed in the
mountainous areas out west.  In addition, RH down in the Big Bend
may reach 15% or less Tuesday afternoon, and this will need to be
monitored.  ERCs are still below normal, but Fire Danger is high.

Temps will drop with the Pac front Tuesday, but a secondary front
Wednesday will take temps below normal.  Unfortunately, these temps
won`t budge much into the extended, as another front reinforces
colder temps Friday, and a dry trough moves thru over the weekend.
Thru this all, rain chances look slim to none, and the grids remain
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  73  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  70  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         42  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  78  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  59  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  68  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  69  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  73  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  73  42  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
527
FXUS64 KMAF 222046
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
246 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current sfc observations show winds continuing to decrease across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/strongest activity over the
Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos as the tail-end of strong winds rounding
the base of the upper trough leaves the region.  As such, all wind
warnings/advisories have been allowed to expire.

WV imagery shows the upper trough now over the Arklamiss, and
subsidence on the backside of this feature has resulted in CAVU
conditions across the region under NW flow aloft.  To the west, an
upper ridge will briefly build into the area Monday, w/thicknesses
increasing and downslope warming pumping temps into the 70s most
locations.  Unfortunately, an upper trough will move out of the
PacNW and into the upper Midwest by Tuesday afternoon, shunting the
ridge to the east and pushing a cold front into the region under SW
flow aloft.  Attm, winds throughout the CWA look to remain below
high wind criteria, although advisories may be needed in the
mountainous areas out west.  In addition, RH down in the Big Bend
may reach 15% or less Tuesday afternoon, and this will need to be
monitored.  ERCs are still below normal, but Fire Danger is high.

Temps will drop with the Pac front Tuesday, but a secondary front
Wednesday will take temps below normal.  Unfortunately, these temps
won`t budge much into the extended, as another front reinforces
colder temps Friday, and a dry trough moves thru over the weekend.
Thru this all, rain chances look slim to none, and the grids remain
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  73  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  70  45  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         42  73  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  78  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  59  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  68  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  69  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  73  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  73  42  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
029
FXUS64 KMAF 221812
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the expiration of the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have slowly decreased areawide this morning, thus have
allowed the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory that were in
effect across southern zones to expire as scheduled. While some
strong gusts are still occurring across the Marfa Plateau, they
are expected to be short lived and continue to diminish through
the afternoon. Updated products will be sent out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Gusty W/NW winds will continue through the afternoon at all
terminals, but will gradually decrease, with gusts diminishing
after 23/00Z. Wind speeds are expected to remain under 12kt
thereafter, with winds backing to the SW Monday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move
away from the region through the day.  As it does an upper ridge
will build in from the west.  The next upper trough will start to
move ashore the West Coast early Monday reaching the 4 corners
region Tuesday with a low developing over the Central plains.  By
early Wednesday this trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwest to NM and pass over TX during the day.  A secondary lobe
of the trough will dig back to the southwest through the end of the
week.

Very windy conditions continue into the early morning. The deep
surface low that has kept the wind up is moving east away from the
region this morning but still has tight pressure gradient behind
it... this should relax through the day.  The bowl in the Guadalupe
Mtns and Mount Locke in the Davis Mtns are still hitting high wind
criteria and some of the plains still at advisory levels...
therefore will let current warnings/advisories run through 12z. Have
cut back on the warnings and advisories in effect down south after
12z leaving the Davis Mtns in warning and surround areas in
advisories until 18z.  This wind event should be coming to an end
with a little break Monday... Tuesday could be windy again but not
as strong as past few days.

Temperatures in the 60s today warm into the 70s Monday with 80s on
the Rio Grande.  A Pacific front moves through Tuesday with highs
down into the 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation expected through next
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  74  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  73  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         42  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  80  48  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  65  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  71  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  72  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  75  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  75  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  76  42  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
528
FXUS64 KMAF 221736
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1136 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty W/NW winds will continue through the afternoon at all
terminals, but will gradually decrease, with gusts diminishing
after 23/00Z. Wind speeds are expected to remain under 12kt
thereafter, with winds backing to the SW Monday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move
away from the region through the day.  As it does an upper ridge
will build in from the west.  The next upper trough will start to
move ashore the West Coast early Monday reaching the 4 corners
region Tuesday with a low developing over the Central plains.  By
early Wednesday this trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwest to NM and pass over TX during the day.  A secondary lobe
of the trough will dig back to the southwest through the end of the
week.

Very windy conditions continue into the early morning. The deep
surface low that has kept the wind up is moving east away from the
region this morning but still has tight pressure gradient behind
it... this should relax through the day.  The bowl in the Guadalupe
Mtns and Mount Locke in the Davis Mtns are still hitting high wind
criteria and some of the plains still at advisory levels...
therefore will let current warnings/advisories run through 12z. Have
cut back on the warnings and advisories in effect down south after
12z leaving the Davis Mtns in warning and surround areas in
advisories until 18z.  This wind event should be coming to an end
with a little break Monday... Tuesday could be windy again but not
as strong as past few days.

Temperatures in the 60s today warm into the 70s Monday with 80s on
the Rio Grande.  A Pacific front moves through Tuesday with highs
down into the 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation expected through next
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  74  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  73  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         42  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  80  48  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  65  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          34  71  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  72  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  75  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  75  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  76  42  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$
489
FXUS64 KMAF 221216
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
For expiration of warning/advisories.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and let most of the wind warnings and advisories fall
away at 12z. Still have windy conditions down south and these will
continue until 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Gusty W/NW winds expected through morning, then diminish through
the afternoon. Sustained speeds aob 10kt expected after sunset.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move
away from the region through the day.  As it does an upper ridge
will build in from the west.  The next upper trough will start to
move ashore the West Coast early Monday reaching the 4 corners
region Tuesday with a low developing over the Central plains.  By
early Wednesday this trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwest to NM and pass over TX during the day.  A secondary lobe
of the trough will dig back to the southwest through the end of the
week.

Very windy conditions continue into the early morning. The deep
surface low that has kept the wind up is moving east away from the
region this morning but still has tight pressure gradient behind
it... this should relax through the day.  The bowl in the Guadalupe
Mtns and Mount Locke in the Davis Mtns are still hitting high wind
criteria and some of the plains still at advisory levels...
therefore will let current warnings/advisories run through 12z. Have
cut back on the warnings and advisories in effect down south after
12z leaving the Davis Mtns in warning and surround areas in
advisories until 18z.  This wind event should be coming to an end
with a little break Monday... Tuesday could be windy again but not
as strong as past few days.

Temperatures in the 60s today warm into the 70s Monday with 80s on
the Rio Grande.  A Pacific front moves through Tuesday with highs
down into the 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation expected through next
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  37  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  34  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  27  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  38  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  76  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

27/72
060
FXUS64 KMAF 221122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Gusty W/NW winds expected through morning, then diminish through
the afternoon. Sustained speeds aob 10kt expected after sunset.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move
away from the region through the day.  As it does an upper ridge
will build in from the west.  The next upper trough will start to
move ashore the West Coast early Monday reaching the 4 corners
region Tuesday with a low developing over the Central plains.  By
early Wednesday this trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwest to NM and pass over TX during the day.  A secondary lobe
of the trough will dig back to the southwest through the end of the
week.

Very windy conditions continue into the early morning. The deep
surface low that has kept the wind up is moving east away from the
region this morning but still has tight pressure gradient behind
it... this should relax through the day.  The bowl in the Guadalupe
Mtns and Mount Locke in the Davis Mtns are still hitting high wind
criteria and some of the plains still at advisory levels...
therefore will let current warnings/advisories run through 12z. Have
cut back on the warnings and advisories in effect down south after
12z leaving the Davis Mtns in warning and surround areas in
advisories until 18z.  This wind event should be coming to an end
with a little break Monday... Tuesday could be windy again but not
as strong as past few days.

Temperatures in the 60s today warm into the 70s Monday with 80s on
the Rio Grande.  A Pacific front moves through Tuesday with highs
down into the 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation expected through next
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  37  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  34  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  27  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  38  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  76  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
     for Big Bend Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

27/72/
836
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
334 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough passing over East TX this morning will continue to move
away from the region through the day.  As it does an upper ridge
will build in from the west.  The next upper trough will start to
move ashore the West Coast early Monday reaching the 4 corners
region Tuesday with a low developing over the Central plains.  By
early Wednesday this trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwest to NM and pass over TX during the day.  A secondary lobe
of the trough will dig back to the southwest through the end of the
week.

Very windy conditions continue into the early morning. The deep
surface low that has kept the wind up is moving east away from the
region this morning but still has tight pressure gradient behind
it... this should relax through the day.  The bowl in the Guadalupe
Mtns and Mount Locke in the Davis Mtns are still hitting high wind
criteria and some of the plains still at advisory levels...
therefore will let current warnings/advisories run through 12z. Have
cut back on the warnings and advisories in effect down south after
12z leaving the Davis Mtns in warning and surround areas in
advisories until 18z.  This wind event should be coming to an end
with a little break Monday... Tuesday could be windy again but not
as strong as past few days.

Temperatures in the 60s today warm into the 70s Monday with 80s on
the Rio Grande.  A Pacific front moves through Tuesday with highs
down into the 50s Wednesday through the weekend.

Have a dry forecast with no precipitation expected through next
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  37  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  34  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  27  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  38  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  76  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
     for Big Bend Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

27/72
968
FXUS64 KMAF 220455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
West winds will remain elevated tonight before decreasing a bit
around sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  43  64  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  40  61  36 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  45  70  42 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  66  41  65  42 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  29  50  39 /  70   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  36  60  34 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          53  30  57  29 /  70  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  62  38 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  42  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           59  40  63  35 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST Sunday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for Pecos.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/
     Sunday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
973
FXUS64 KMAF 212340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Airport weather warning will continue for KMAF through 22/12Z for
sustained winds over 30 kts and gust over 40 kts. Strong winds
will continue through the night with gusts over 50 kts possible at
KCNM. Winds will decrease through the day Sunday and VFR
conditions will remain in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, where sfc analysis pinpoints the associated sfc trough.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have
resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Fortunately, cloud cover has put a damper on mixing, generally
keeping winds lower than previously forecast.  Both NAM and GFS
buffer soundings do not mix this afternoon as deep as they did 24
hours ago, and NAM H7 height gradients are not at tight as
yesterday`s, either.  Still, the NAM carries a decent mtn wave
signature thru 12Z Sunday, as well as a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see
no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently
lay, as winds look to stay up all night. In fact, models suggest
the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over
the SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S
will need to be extended into Sunday.

Otherwise, expected rainfall today hasn`t really panned out,
especially considering a dry subcloud layer as depicted on the KMAF
12Z RAOB.  Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into
the extended.  An upper ridge builds in following the trough,
w/temps Monday climbing into the 70s most locations.  This looks to
be our warmest day this forecast, w/a series of fronts arriving
beginning Tuesday, taking temps to below normal by Wednesday
afternoon, thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  64  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  61  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  70  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  65  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 29  50  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  57  29  72 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  62  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  62  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  63  35  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST Sunday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for Pecos.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/
     Sunday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
733
FXUS64 KMAF 212045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, where sfc analysis pinpoints the associated sfc trough.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have
resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Fortunately, cloud cover has put a damper on mixing, generally
keeping winds lower than previously forecast.  Both NAM and GFS
buffer soundings do not mix this afternoon as deep as they did 24
hours ago, and NAM H7 height gradients are not at tight as
yesterday`s, either.  Still, the NAM carries a decent mtn wave
signature thru 12Z Sunday, as well as a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see
no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently
lay, as winds look to saty up all night.  In fact, models suggest
the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over the
SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S will
need to be extended into Sunday.

Otherwise, expected rainfall today hasn`t really panned out,
especially considering a dry subcloud layer as depicted on the KMAF
12Z RAOB.  Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into
the extended.  An upper ridge builds in following the trough,
w/temps Monday climbing into the 70s most locations.  This looks to
be our warmest day this forecast, w/a series of fronts arriving
beginning Tuesday, taking temps to below normal by Wednesday
afternoon, thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  64  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  61  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  70  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  65  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 29  50  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  57  29  72 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  62  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  62  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  63  35  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST Sunday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for Pecos.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/
     Sunday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

84/44
133
FXUS64 KMAF 211744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong/gusty west winds are the main concern the next 24 hours.
Gusts to around 40-45KT are expected for area terminals through
tonight, with the exception of CNM/PEQ, where gusts up to around
50KT are possible. Blowing dust could occur this afternoon and
tonight, though have maintained VFR flight conditions. Winds will
decrease slightly by Sunday morning, but will still be gusty.
While -SHRA and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through this afternoon, have not included mention at this time.

Note: Strong west winds will likely result in severe turbulence
near the mountain regions, resulting in hazardous flying
conditions especially for low flying light aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wind wind wind. As one upper trough moves away from the area
another moves this way. This next trough is very strong and will
move down along the US/Mex border as it pushes east and reaches
the area by midday. This will result in a very windy day today.
After this next trough moves away upper ridge builds in from the
west.

Yesterday was windy but today should be even more so. The 700mb
wind fields show a large area of 50-60 kts moving across the area
today and tonight with guidance pushing the elevated wind speeds
out most of the night. Eta shows a 991mb surface low spinning up
over the panhandle today with a tight pressure gradient with it.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning across Reeves and Pecos
counties and have expanded the Wind Advisory east across the whole
CWA. The wind should be very strong by noon but may drop off
around sunset only to pick up again overnight. Will extend the
warnings/advisories out through 12z... if winds drop off earlier
may need to be killed a few hours early Sunday. Should get a break
for a few days but Tuesday looking windy again.

Showers are likely today west with a slight chance east... isolated
storms possible areawide today. Models develop most qpf west over
the higher elevations but blowing dust may turn out to be a
bigger concern as will be possible near any open field or
construction site. Could end up with muddy rain drops.

Do have widespread cloud cover this morning keeping temperatures
elevated but this should clear overnight. Highs today should warm
into the 60s over much of the area with 70s on Monday. Another
front mid week knocks highs down into the 50s for the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  62  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  70  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  63  43  79 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  50  38  62 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          29  57  35  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           40  62  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  62  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           39  63  38  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
774
FXUS64 KMAF 211126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
526 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Strong west winds expected through the TAF period with gusts over
40 kts at all terminals by this afternoon. Gusts over 50 kts are
likely at CNM and PEQ during this time. BLDU will be possible
however think flight conditions will remain VFR. Showers with a
few isolated thunderstorms will be possible today but rainfall is
expected to be light.

**Note: Strong west winds will likely result in severe turbulence
near the mountain regions, resulting in hazardous flying
conditions especially for low flying light aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wind wind wind. As one upper trough moves away from the area
another moves this way. This next trough is very strong and will
move down along the US/Mex border as it pushes east and reaches
the area by midday. This will result in a very windy day today.
After this next trough moves away upper ridge builds in from the
west.

Yesterday was windy but today should be even more so. The 700mb
wind fields show a large area of 50-60 kts moving across the area
today and tonight with guidance pushing the elevated wind speeds
out most of the night. Eta shows a 991mb surface low spinning up
over the panhandle today with a tight pressure gradient with it.
Have expanded the High Wind Warning across Reeves and Pecos
counties and have expanded the Wind Advisory east across the whole
CWA. The wind should be very strong by noon but may drop off
around sunset only to pick up again overnight. Will extend the
warnings/advisories out through 12z... if winds drop off earlier
may need to be killed a few hours early Sunday. Should get a break
for a few days but Tuesday looking windy again.

Showers are likely today west with a slight chance east... isolated
storms possible areawide today. Models develop most qpf west over
the higher elevations but blowing dust may turn out to be a
bigger concern as will be possible near any open field or
construction site. Could end up with muddy rain drops.

Do have widespread cloud cover this morning keeping temperatures
elevated but this should clear overnight. Highs today should warm
into the 60s over much of the area with 70s on Monday. Another
front mid week knocks highs down into the 50s for the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  40  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  38  62  37 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  43  70  42 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  65  41  63  43 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  27  50  38 /  70  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  37  60  36 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  29  57  35 /  60  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  40  62  38 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  40  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           60  39  63  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Big Bend
     Area-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
658
FXUS64 KMAF 210935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
335 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Wind wind wind.  As one upper trough moves away from the area
another moves this way.  This next trough is very strong and will
move down along the US/Mex border as it pushes east and reaches the
area by midday.  This will result in a very windy day today.  After
this next trough moves away upper ridge builds in from the west.

Yesterday was windy but today should be even more so.  The 700mb
wind fields show a large area of 50-60 kts moving across the area
today and tonight with guidance pushing the elevated wind speeds out
most of the night.  Eta shows a 991mb surface low spinning up over
the panhandle today with a tight pressure gradient with it.  Have
expanded the High Wind Warning across Reeves and Pecos counties and
have expanded the Wind Advisory east across the whole CWA.  The wind
should be very strong by noon but may drop off around sunset only to
pick up again overnight.  Will extend the warnings/advisories out
through 12z... if winds drop off earlier may need to be killed a few
hours early Sunday.  Should get a break for a few days but Tuesday
looking windy again.

Showers are likely today west with a slight chance east... isolated
storms possible areawide today.  Models develop most qpf west over
the higher elevations but blowing dust may turn out to be a bigger
concern as will be possible near any open field or construction site.
Could end up with muddy rain drops.

Do have widespread cloud cover this morning keeping temperatures
elevated but this should clear overnight.  Highs today should warm
into the 60s over much of the area with 70s on Monday.  Another
front mid week knocks highs down into the 50s for the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  40  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  38  62  37 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  43  70  42 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  65  41  63  43 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  27  50  38 /  70  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  37  60  36 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  29  57  35 /  60  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  40  62  38 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  40  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           60  39  63  38 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Big Bend
     Area-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
156
FXUS64 KMAF 210445
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Strong winds expected later today with gusts over 40 kts at all
terminals this afternoon. Gusts over 50 kts are likely across SE
NM. Winds are likely to remain gusty into the overnight hours.
BLDU will also be possible, but VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  45  65  42 /   0  10  20   0
Carlsbad                       64  43  59  39 /   0  20  40   0
Dryden                         72  46  71  46 /   0  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  45  66  42 /   0  10  40   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  37  45  31 /   0  40  60  10
Hobbs                          60  42  56  38 /   0  20  30   0
Marfa                          62  35  57  31 /   0  10  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  45  63  42 /   0  20  20   0
Odessa                         66  44  59  41 /   0  20  20   0
Wink                           66  44  59  40 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
709
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Strong westerly winds are beginning to subside this evening.
Intense cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains Saturday will lead
to strong and damaging winds over a good part of the area. Expect
winds to really pick up by late morning with gusts over 40 kts
likely at all terminals by afternoon. Could see some BLDU and a
few SHRA but VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central
Plains...only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and
move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over
the next 24 hours.  This portends a significant wind event Saturday
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  The NAM12 forecasts a
potent mtn wave signature thru Saturday night, which is pretty much a
given for this pattern.  Very strong westerlies are forecast to
round the base of the trough Saturday.  NAM buffer soundings for
KMAF mix out Saturday afternoon to 750mb, where ~ 50kt winds are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 725mb...w/~ 45kt winds.
Consequently, MOS numbers reflect this, w/the tamer MET guidance
forecasting high winds for most of the CWA.  H7 height gradients
tighten up to 60m/120nm, lending legitimacy to a very windy day.
What`s more, the sfc pressure gradient is forecast to tighten
considerably Saturday night as the sfc trough passes to the NE, so
windy conditions could carry into the overnight hours as well.  The
only parameter that could spoil these high winds would be an
expected increase in cloud cover Saturday to inhibit mixing.  For
now, confidence is high in at least warning criteria being met
Saturday over the western zones, with a sizable chunk of the central
FA meeting advisory conditions.  If anything, winds will be stronger
on Saturday, and we`ll let the mid shift crew expand all this
further east (and into Saturday night) if necessary.

Otherwise, chances of rain and even an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible Saturday, but otherwise the forecast looks dry.  An upper
ridge follows the trough, w/temps Monday afternoon climbing into the
70s most locations...before a series of dry fronts bring temps to
below normal Wednesday into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  65  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  59  39  58 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                         46  71  46  68 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  66  42  62 /  10  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  31  50 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          42  56  38  59 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          35  57  31  56 /  10  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  42  60 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         44  59  41  60 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           44  59  40  61 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/29
054
FXUS64 KMAF 202127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central
Plains...only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and
move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over
the next 24 hours.  This portends a significant wind event Saturday
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  The NAM12 forecasts a
potent mtn wave signature thru Saturday night, which is pretty much a
given for this pattern.  Very strong westerlies are forecast to
round the base of the trough Saturday.  NAM buffer soundings for
KMAF mix out Saturday afternoon to 750mb, where ~ 50kt winds are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 725mb...w/~ 45kt winds.
Consequently, MOS numbers reflect this, w/the tamer MET guidance
forecasting high winds for most of the CWA.  H7 height gradients
tighten up to 60m/120nm, lending legitimacy to a very windy day.
What`s more, the sfc pressure gradient is forecast to tighten
considerably Saturday night as the sfc trough passes to the NE, so
windy conditions could carry into the overnight hours as well.  The
only parameter that could spoil these high winds would be an
expected increase in cloud cover Saturday to inhibit mixing.  For
now, confidence is high in at least warning criteria being met
Saturday over the western zones, with a sizable chunk of the central
FA meeting advisory conditions.  If anything, winds will be stronger
on Saturday, and we`ll let the mid shift crew expand all this
further east (and into Saturday night) if necessary.

Otherwise, chances of rain and even an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible Saturday, but otherwise the forecast looks dry.  An upper
ridge follows the trough, w/temps Monday afternoon climbing into the
70s most locations...before a series of dry fronts bring temps to
below normal Wednesday into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  65  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  59  39  58 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                         46  71  46  68 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  66  42  62 /  10  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  31  50 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          42  56  38  59 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          35  57  31  56 /  10  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  42  60 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         44  59  41  60 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           44  59  40  61 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

80/44
222
FXUS64 KMAF 201727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will pick
up in intensity out of the west this afternoon and will gust
between 30 - 35 kts in many locations. Winds will decrease in
strength this evening and become southwest before picking up again
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
072
FXUS64 KMAF 201113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

West winds will increase through the morning and by afternoon
sustained speeds of 20-30kt can be expected at most terminals. Windy
conditions will persist through afternoon then diminish this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM CST
     /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72
303
FXUS64 KMAF 200933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM CST
     /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72
052
FXUS64 KMAF 200418
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Winds have diminished somewhat but remain gusty across SE NM. This
trend will continue through the morning before westerly winds
pick up areawide once again by afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  42  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       65  43  62  43 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         72  41  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          62  39  60  40 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          59  30  60  33 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  41  67  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
708
FXUS64 KMAF 200212
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
812 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory for today to expire.  The High
Wind Warning, and Wind Advisory for Friday, remain in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds have decreased across the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, and even moreso across the plains, with sunset/decoupling
of winds.  Mid level winds will remain strong over the region
tonight, so think high winds may continue in the higher elevations
of the Guadalupe Mountains at least sporadically, but they could
unexpectedly mix to the lower elevations too.  Over the plains, only
Carlsbad and western reaches of Eddy County, could see stronger
winds mix down suddenly.  Still, cooler temperatures will prevent
the strongest winds from mixing down, and will allow the Wind
Advisory for the plains to expire.  Will leave the High Wind Warning
going for the Guadalupe Mountains, and the higher elevations of the
Davis Mountains, where stronger winds will be much more likely to
mix down overnight.  Also, the Wind Advisory for Friday late morning
and afternoon is still in effect.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance
VFR Conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Winds
will decrease slightly but remain gusty overnight before
increasing once again Fri afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
756
FXUS64 KMAF 200010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance
VFR Conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Winds
will decrease slightly but remain gusty overnight before
increasing once again Fri afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
732
FXUS64 KMAF 192043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/80
224
FXUS64 KMAF 191732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1132 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Did a quick update to add Eddy and Reeves Counties to the Wind
Advisory, and update other parameters as necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in strong westerly sfc
flow, gusty during the afternoon hours. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  42  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       65  43  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         72  41  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          62  39  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          59  30  60  33 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  41  67  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

44/80
812
FXUS64 KMAF 191524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in strong westerly sfc
flow, gusty during the afternoon hours. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/80/44
100
FXUS64 KMAF 191112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
011
FXUS64 KMAF 190932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
537
FXUS64 KMAF 190433
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide tonight.  Fog may form late
tonight, but surface winds of 5 to 10kt will provide enough mixing
to keep fog light and will not mention at any terminals.  Southwest
to west winds will increase around 19/15Z, but will rise to 20 to
25kt sustained around 19/18Z, with gusts as high as 35kt.  Winds
will decrease at most terminals by 20/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

UPDATE...

Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier.

DISCUSSION...

Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start
in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening
with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The
High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the
earlier arrival of the high winds.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight, although there is
an outside chance MVFR fog will form at some of the terminals.  Will
leave mention of fog out for now since it appears surface winds will
keep enough mixing going to prevent much fog from developing.
Southwest to west winds will increase at all terminals Thursday
prior to 19/18Z.  Sustained winds of 20 to 25kt, and gusts near
35kt, will be possible at all sites through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
755
FXUS64 KMAF 182320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start
in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening
with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The
High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the
earlier arrival of the high winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight, although there is
an outside chance MVFR fog will form at some of the terminals.  Will
leave mention of fog out for now since it appears surface winds will
keep enough mixing going to prevent much fog from developing.
Southwest to west winds will increase at all terminals Thursday
prior to 19/18Z.  Sustained winds of 20 to 25kt, and gusts near
35kt, will be possible at all sites through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99
813
FXUS64 KMAF 182031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a foggy morning, skies have become partly to mostly sunny
this afternoon, with locations across the area on target to hit
high temperatures well into the 50s and 60s, close to normal for
this time of year. As the trough responsible for the cool, damp
weather lifts toward the Great Lakes tomorrow, shortwave ridging
will develop over the region ahead of the next trough across the
western CONUS. At the surface, a lee trough will develop, which
will result in increasing westerly winds and downslope warming,
allowing temperatures tomorrow to climb roughly 10 degrees above
normal areawide, in the 60s and 70s for most locations. A few
spots across higher terrain could see highs in the middle to upper
50s.

The primary concern through the next 7 days will mainly be high
winds, which look to affect the Guadalupe Mountains for most of
the forecast period. Per latest guidance, a prolonged High Wind
event is becoming more likely, lasting from tomorrow morning
potentially into early next week, with greatest impacts expected
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds could gust to
70 mph. Higher elevations of the Davis Mountains are also
expected to see very windy conditions, with gusts to 60 to 65 mph
possible. While there could be lulls in the windy conditions,
these lulls are expected to be brief, thus have have gone ahead
and upgraded the High Wind Watch on Thursday to a High Wind
Warning, and extended it until 12Z Friday morning. This will
likely wind up extended further in later forecast packages, though
for now, will keep it short and sweet to avoid potential
confusion. The southeastern New Mexico and west Texas plains will
also see windy conditions the next few days, with gusts to 35 to
45 mph possible.

The driving forces behind the expected windy conditions are a
series of troughs progged to pass north of the region, with
increased westerlies at their southern periphery. The
aforementioned western CONUS trough will develop a negative tilt
as it skirts north of the area on Friday, with an accompanying
Pacific front expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures on
Saturday. Models continue to generate precipitation early on
Saturday across the west, gradually shifting east during the
afternoon. Have maintained rain chances at this time, however,
available moisture may be lacking, thus will keep overall QPF on
the low side of guidance. The passing trough will push a weak cold
front through the region on Sunday with little fanfare other than
a cool down to near normal temperatures. Weak ridging will return
on Monday, resulting in another warm up, and a potential lull in
the windy conditions for most of the area. However, another trough
is progged to move from the Four Corners Region into the Plains
on Tuesday, which will see a return to windy to very windy
conditions for most of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to 6 AM CST
     /5 AM MST/ Friday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
719
FXUS64 KMAF 181723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are dissipating and VFR will prevail this PM. Light fog
is possible Thur AM at MAF/HOB but w/sw winds will attempt to
keep it at bay. Winds will increase quickly between 15Z-18Z Thur
and moreso into the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue at most locations through 18Z
before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out LIFR briefly forming at
MAF around sunrise but confidence not high enough to place in the
TAF at this time. A return of sub-VFR conditions is not expected
tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
202
FXUS64 KMAF 181115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
515 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue at most locations through 18Z
before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out LIFR briefly forming at
MAF around sunrise but confidence not high enough to place in the
TAF at this time. A return of sub-VFR conditions is not expected
tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
946
FXUS64 KMAF 180953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
602
FXUS64 KMAF 180424
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR, if not VLIFR, at most area
terminals overnight.  Fog will thicken, but may take most of the
night to form under the low cloud deck.  Low ceilings and fog will
begin to lift/mix out around 18/15Z, with VFR conditions expected
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$