Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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033
FXUS64 KMAF 210004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light showers continue to move northeast across the area this
evening, with VFR conditions across SE NM TAF sites and generally
MVFR ceilings across W TX TAF sites expected to continue for at
least the first several hours of the forecast period. Models
continue to indicate widespread rainfall expanding across the area
from south to north tonight, with light to moderate rain expected
at KFST by around 06Z, KPEQ, KINK, and KMAF by around 08Z, and
KCNM and KHOB closer to 12-14Z. Ceilings will deteriorate to low-
end MVFR or IFR by Saturday morning for all TAF sites, with LIFR
possible across W TX TAF sites. While some thunder is certainly
possible, have not included mention of -TSRA in TAFS at this time
due to uncertainties in timing/coverage. And, while periods of
improved conditions (MVFR, VFR) may occur between rounds of
precipitation, feel that both ceilings and visibility Saturday
will primarily remain in the LIFR/IFR range. The only exceptions
could be KHOB and KINK where low-end MVFR may be possible
Saturday, though that may be a bit too optimistic.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another cut off low over Northern Mexico will lift NE tonight and Saturday
bringing the potential of heavy rain to the area.  After that a flat
ridge builds across the region with mild wx expected through much of
next week.  However late next week there is the potential for another
upper trough to move down the west coast and develop into a cut off
low over Mexico.

A cold front moved though the area in the overnight hours and has
pushed well into Mexico today.  Morning showers and thunderstorms
brought moderate to heavy rain to parts of the Trans Pecos and
central Permian Basin.  Some locations received over a half inch or
more of rain.  This will increase the potential for flash flooding
tonight as additional rain falls.  Currently have scattered showers
and storms ongoing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  WV
shows a strong fetch of Pacific moisture streaming northward and
morning sounding shows a high PW so potential for heavy rainfall.

Model qpf develops significant amounts of rain tonight and
tomorrow.  These models area in fairly good agreement to the
potential for heavy rain but not in agreement as to location.
Variations should be due to how the different models handle the
track of individual disturbances with the upper low.  Have increased
pops and added mention of heavy rain to the forecast.  Expect
heaviest rain tonight across the southern CWA with highest pops
across Marfa Plateau... Big Bend... up through the Davis Mountains.
On Saturday have likely or better pops across most of the region
with the highest over the Trans Pecos.  Will expand the FFA
northward across the Upper Trans Pecos and Central Permian Basin and
move up start time to 00z.  Have kept precip tonight as a
combination of showers and thunderstorms but by Saturday rainshowers
will become more prevalent with only a few isolated thunderstorms
expected.  Depending how rain develops overnight this watch may be
expanded even farther northward for Saturday.  Rain chances will
decrease and shift east Saturday night.  Conditions begin to dry up
on Sunday with pops returning to the forecast by Thursday.

Rain and clouds will moderate the temps through tonight through Saturday
night.  By Sunday above normal temperatures return to the area with
temperatures reaching the 80s early next week.  Another cold front
midweek knocks highs back into the 60s for the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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