Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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733
FXUS64 KMAF 231329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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