Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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672
FXUS64 KMAF 230915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS,
from SoCal to the Florida.  To the north, a trough was ejecting into
nrn MN.  Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front
moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough.  This feature
looks much weaker/shallower than last week`s front, w/only modest
pressure rises along the front.  Models differ somewhat on how far
it makes it into the FA, w/the NAM bringing it into mid-CWA, whereas
the GFS and ECMWF stall it a little further north.  Going w/the NAM,
it looks as though the front will stall diurnally this afternoon,
before retreating north just a little overnight as a 25-30kt LLJ
develops. This will be the main focus for convection, w/best chances
over SE NM along the front this afternoon.  If the GFS pans out, SE
NM could see significant rainfall.

Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will
remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies
over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into
the upper 90s most locations.  Unfortunately, models keep the theta-
e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  70  93  71  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  68  92  69  /  50  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  73 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  71  95  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  65  86  68  /  40  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       87  64  88  67  /  40  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  84  61  /  20  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  71  94  70  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      97  72  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  72  96  71  /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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