Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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053
FXUS64 KMAF 271728
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with few clouds the next 24 hours. Gusty W/SW wind
this afternoon will drop off this evening and back around toward
the south overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

Upper level low pressure area across the western high plains will
slowly move northeast into the central plains today. Behind this
system dry westerly downslope flow will be in place with temperatures
expected to rise to slightly above normal values this afternoon
despite the passage of a Pacific front. In the meantime another
Pacific upper level low pressure area will move onshore and dig
into the southern Rockies by Thursday evening. East of this upper
low, a surface low will develop over the region in the southwest
flow aloft with low level thermal ridging pushing temperatures
well above normal Thursday afternoon. In addition the backing mid
level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the Permian
Basin late Thursday and Thursday night along with mid level lift.
This could allow for thunderstorms to develop in the Permian Basin
and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains mainly Thursday
night along a retreating dryline.

This upper low is forecast to lift from the southern Rockies into
the central Rockies Friday and onto the western Plains Saturday.
This should push the precipitation east of the forecast area
by Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy
conditions should develop Friday and Saturday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday through Tuesday. Backing mid level flow along with
large scale lift will draw low level moisture northwestward from
the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be possible across much of
the forecast area these days.

FIRE WEATHER...

Poor recovery areawide this morning will aid above normal
temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon.  These warmer, drier
conditions will persist over all of southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the rest of the week.  Zonal flow aloft today will
provide southwest to west winds of 20 mph sustained and greater,
with higher gusts, to the Guadalupe Mountains from late this morning
until early this evening.  Considering RH/s will drop to around 10
percent this afternoon, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the
Guadalupes from 27/17Z to 28/03Z.  Wind speeds over the rest of the
forecast area will remain below 20 mph sustained, with few
exceptions.  Recovery tonight will be poor areawide.

The flow aloft will become more southwesterly Thursday with gusty
winds of 20 mph sustained or greater expected over the guadalupes
and SE NM Plains.  High temperatures will rise around 10 degrees
above normal, with dry air in place dropping afternoon RH/s to 5 to
10 percent.  Therefore, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains from 28/17Z to 29/03Z, with the caveat
that critical fire weather conditions will begin over the SE NM
Plains by 28/19Z and after.  Further east, the dryline will move
into the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, keep minimum
afternoon RH/s above 15 percent in these areas and allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms.  The dryline is expected to surge
westward Thursday night and bring good recovery perhaps as far west
as the northwest Permian Basin to the Stockton Plateau.  However,
recovery will be poor from the SE NM Plains, south through the Big
Bend.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms over the locations
east of a Carlsbad to to Pecos to Big Bend line Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  55  89  62 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         91  60  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  86  56  92  60 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74  53  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          79  50  86  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          78  42  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           84  56  90  62 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         84  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           87  53  92  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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